Limits of the Methodology?/ Cheap races

[BJennet]

I have been a practioner of the Methodology, off and on, for almost twenty years, and found it very effective in most racing situations. However some recent experiences have reminded me of some perennial problems I've had with cheaper races - say 10k and below.

Many years ago, in the only conversation I've ever had with Tom Brohamer, I mentioned my enthusiasm for the higher mutuels of cheap races to him, and his reponse was, 'Yeah, the prices can be great, but look how erratic they are.' He went on to say that although the Methodology could be used on such races, the results were often much less predictable than those with better stock, and said that he himself was cautious about playing them.

I've generally found this to be true, and have also come to believe that in races of this kind, the physical condition of the horse is really more relevant than any information to be found in the pace figures. And also, for the same reason, I've come to believe that local players and insiders have an edge over those playing off-site.

For these reasons, I've played few of these races over the years, and since I play mostly turf, this isn't usually a problem. But due to the lack of grass racing at this time of year, I tried my hand at a number of cheap dirt races, and the results were so bad, I had to laugh at myself for forgetting Brohamer's words.

Don't get me wrong - I know some handicappers who do very well with cheap races - but the methods they use tend to involve trainers and have nothing to do with pace or even speed figures.

I probably won't be playing these races again anytime soon, but I would appreciate hearing from anyone who does successfully use the Methodology to handicap them.

Cheers,

B Jennet