Auto paceline templates /Betting real money testing it

[tfm]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

BJ,

Points well made, re bankroll growth and re Benter and his ROI. Although, before folks get to drooling too much, betting CT, PEN, DED, ZIA Win pools are not where Benter made his millions (Hong Kong exotics).

For that, here, need to find more bets at the major tracks, and eventually in exotic pools.

Ted

Addtiionally, the track(s) Benter was playing essentially had the same horses facing each other all year long. Moreover, he had a team working to get him very exact data. A lot easier to win under those conditions.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Friday 10/30 was the day the music died for "auto" killing virtually a whole months profit in one session.

There is one big problem with this and it's been coming. I cant continually be buried day after day where I need a 20-30 buck horse to get even. Yesterday it never came.

I recognize this pattern from the 90's when a friend and me analyzed for days the patterns of higher paying winners relative to our reads.

I will stop the betting here on this for now, take a small profit, bet enough to watch videos a few months.

Now it is time to see whats what with a couple of things. Now the hard work begins


Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!

Screen shots of yesterdays debacle and final overall totals for the month

Richie,

I see you had a bad day, but I still see you with an .11 ROI. Am I just reading this wrong? Its not my place to interfere with anything you're doing, but I am certain of one thing - if you're looking at this as a research project, a sample of 277 races is far too small to have any validity. This doesn't mean that your autopaceline model also couldn't benefit from tweaking, but with this small a sample, the jury is still out. If you start tweaking now, you'll never know the true value of this particular autopaceline method. If you do want to make some changes and start over, try to do a sample of at least 1000 races before drawing any conclusions about the strength of your model. If you're familiar with the poster 'sjk' on the PA site, he told me that his profitable model didn't stabilize until he had a sample of 2,500 races, but hasn't deviated thereafter for the past decade.

There's another page out of Benter's book that also seems worth consideration, and tfm alludes to this in his reference to the homogeneity of the horse population Benter was handicapping - as part of the test of your model (or simply handicapping) make sure that you're playing at tracks you can beat. I'm convinced that both the economics of racing, the decline of interest in the sport, and the growth of whale betting has killed the profit potential of certain tracks. The more races you do, and the more you analyze the data, the more these tracks will reveal themselves, and allow you to eliminate them from play. Any place that could be renamed Chalkdust Downs, and there are a number of them, is not going to be a profitable venue for this kind of autoselection method, or even for normal Sartin handicapping.

Another thought I had is that publicly posting your results by the day may cause stress that you don't need.

Best of luck,

B Jennet

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!

A few observations - yesterday gave back not the whole month, but only the previous 4 betting sessions: you're back to where you were between days 4 and 5.

On Oct 16 and 26, from betting only 15 races you made $42.50 and $33 profit respectively, more than (and close to) what you lost in this latest day. With respect to what BJennet said in his last post, and the ups and downs you show in these records - with this particular contender and bet selection strategy perhaps this is the volitility you should expect. With only 277 bets, there's no evidence so far to know whether the bankroll growth is still not on an upward trajectory. And with the volitility, you also don't know whether this $42 loss won't be followed by another $42 (or more) profit.

I think it is too soon to say that this particular method is not sound.

It is pretty clear, though (correct me if I'm wrong) that this method exacts a certain emotional toll, what to speak a lot of ball busting work. I don't want to minimize that at all - the emotional inputs to the method are as important as paceline selection, contender elimination and bet strategies. There will be volitility - period. When the bankroll is 5 times what it is now and you can actually bet 1% of it on each race, one day you will lose 10% or 15% of it. Pre-accept that now, and also accept that the day you hit 3 boxcars and increase the bankroll by 33%, a portion of that increase is merely insurance for 3 days later when you will give back half that gain.

If you can take a step back, look at your records, see the direction the exercise is heading (from a birds-eye view) and perhaps see an opportunity to emotionally de-sensitize yourself to the volitility - perhaps this will be as valuable a learning for you as the handicapping part.

Sure, you can also study and refine the selection and betting strategies (3 horses per race sometimes? - no place bets?), but for the pile of work you've done so far this month to have its greatest value, and to prove that it can be done with $20 and $50+ bet units, I hope I can encourage you to give it at least another 10 betting sessions, say 500 bets total.

The minute I can offer you in RDSS a race identification filter and/or a paceline selection strategy, or a bet file upload tool to an ADW conditional wagering queue, I'll get on the phone, amico!

Take a breather, dress up as some Italian guy from Westchester, and play some tricks tonight! Study what you've got here, but double-check to make sure some old-style emotional patterns aren't robbing you of the rewards of your research so far, or of future payoffs.

Tu salute!

Ted

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by tfm

Addtiionally, the track(s) Benter was playing essentially had the same horses facing each other all year long. Moreover, he had a team working to get him very exact data. A lot easier to win under those conditions.

tfm,

No question the homogeneity of the horse population helped Benter, but his methods are working just as well with the more diverse horse population in this country. I had some dealings with him about five years ago, acting as a liaison with people who were trying to set up Hong Kong style teams here. Some have quit but others are still going strong - one among many reasons the game has become so tough. Despite his 'strong form' information-gathering team, in the end, he had about the same ROI as Tom Brohamer, Dick Mitchell, Dick Schmidt, and other good professionals, which is by far the most significant factor in the long run. The one big edge he had over most horseplayers was that logit modeling, if done correctly, provides an extremely accurate estimate of a horse's true win probability, which allows for optimal Kelly betting.

I enjoy your posts.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[tfm]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Despite his 'strong form' information-gathering team, in the end, he had about the same ROI as Tom Brohamer, Dick Mitchell, Dick Schmidt, and other good professionals, which is by far the most significant factor in the long run.

what is this ROI? how well do the good professionals do?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Attachment 17979

A few observations - yesterday gave back not the whole month, but only the previous 4 betting sessions: you're back to where you were between days 4 and 5.

On Oct 16 and 26, from betting only 15 races you made $42.50 and $33 profit respectively, more than (and close to) what you lost in this latest day. With respect to what BJennet said in his last post, and the ups and downs you show in these records - with this particular contender and bet selection strategy perhaps this is the volitility you should expect. With only 277 bets, there's no evidence so far to know whether the bankroll growth is still not on an upward trajectory. And with the volitility, you also don't know whether this $42 loss won't be followed by another $42 (or more) profit.

I think it is too soon to say that this particular method is not sound.

It is pretty clear, though (correct me if I'm wrong) that this method exacts a certain emotional toll, what to speak a lot of ball busting work. I don't want to minimize that at all - the emotional inputs to the method are as important as paceline selection, contender elimination and bet strategies. There will be volitility - period. When the bankroll is 5 times what it is now and you can actually bet 1% of it on each race, one day you will lose 10% or 15% of it. Pre-accept that now, and also accept that the day you hit 3 boxcars and increase the bankroll by 33%, a portion of that increase is merely insurance for 3 days later when you will give back half that gain.

If you can take a step back, look at your records, see the direction the exercise is heading (from a birds-eye view) and perhaps see an opportunity to emotionally de-sensitize yourself to the volitility - perhaps this will be as valuable a learning for you as the handicapping part.

Sure, you can also study and refine the selection and betting strategies (3 horses per race sometimes? - no place bets?), but for the pile of work you've done so far this month to have its greatest value, and to prove that it can be done with $20 and $50+ bet units, I hope I can encourage you to give it at least another 10 betting sessions, say 500 bets total.

The minute I can offer you in RDSS a race identification filter and/or a paceline selection strategy, or a bet file upload tool to an ADW conditional wagering queue, I'll get on the phone, amico!

Take a breather, dress up as some Italian guy from Westchester, and play some tricks tonight! Study what you've got here, but double-check to make sure some old-style emotional patterns aren't robbing you of the rewards of your research so far, or of future payoffs.

Tu salute!

Ted

Ted hit it on the nose... This is still very successful and worthy endever.. Friday was nothing more than variance.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Ted

I really feel for Rich .. His heart as always is there . Without an automated way for him to lesson the work load
Psycologically he and most normal people will get beat down testing with $2.00 bets
without that extra zero ant the end of his bets It must be a drag

Am I the only person around here living in a real world

The guy (richie) bust his back doing hour aftre hours of work
He has posted here how it took him like 4 hours to do 15 races
He hit a $50 winner an what was his work worth ?
like $12.00? I can't thank Rich and you enough for the efforts
you make to help us Sartin Methodology users move ahead
into the world of today
However lets never forget what Doc was really about
Believeing in the work and feeling a sense of accomplishment
Asking Richie to do so much work and his reward is the payoff on $ 2.00
bets is in my opinion slave wages

I say lets wait to have some way to lesson his work before we ask him to
test so many races He has shown us it will work ,,, done the correct
way

[tfm]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thanks Ted

I really feel for Rich .. His heart as always is there . Without an automated way for him to lesson the work load
Psycologically he and most normal people will get beat down testing with $2.00 bets
without that extra zero ant the end of his bets It must be a drag

Am I the only person around here living in a real world

The guy (richie) bust his back doing hour aftre hours of work
He has posted here how it took him like 4 hours to do 15 races
He hit a $50 winner an what was his work worth ?
like $12.00? I can't thank Rich and you enough for the efforts
you make to help us Sartin Methodology users move ahead
into the world of today
However lets never forget what Doc was really about
Believeing in the work and feeling a sense of accomplishment
Asking Richie to do so much work and his reward is the payoff on $ 2.00
bets is in my opinion slave wages

I say lets wait to have some way to lesson his work before we ask him to
test so many races He has shown us it will work ,,, done the correct
way

I think that the amount wagered is not relevant here. If Richie can win with this method betting $20 a pop (or more), then he should be able to win betting $2 units. In fact, growing $2 bets to $20 and beyond, is probably the greatest confidence builder one could have. If he were to be able to do that, he'd know, for sure, that he had an income from playing the horses for as long as he wanted.

Personally, I'd continue until I had, at least, doubled my starting bankroll; and then double my unit and see if I could double my roll again. At that point, I'd have a large enough sample size to confidently bet pretty much whatever I could handle.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by tfm

I think that the amount wagered is not relevant here. If Richie can win with this method betting $20 a pop (or more), then he should be able to win betting $2 units. In fact, growing $2 bets to $20 and beyond, is probably the greatest confidence builder one could have. If he were to be able to do that, he'd know, for sure, that he had an income from playing the horses for as long as he wanted.

Personally, I'd continue until I had, at least, doubled my starting bankroll; and then double my unit and see if I could double my roll again. At that point, I'd have a large enough sample size to confidently bet pretty much whatever I could handle.

I agree with the fatman Bill.. You are looking at it as the glass is half empty. Richie is hitting 11% ROI after a bad day but is still +30 Bets... Would you think differently if his unit was 100 bucks instead of 2.. In that case he is up 3,000 before rebates. Also Bill no one is "telling" Richie anything.. I think we are all offering him support and positive thoughts here man. He seems down after a bad day and sometimes it is hard to see the bigger picture and the bigger picture is thus far he is a success.

[Bill V.]

The day the music died

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday 10/30 was the day the music died for "auto" killing virtually a whole months profit in one session.

There is one big problem with this and it's been coming. I cant continually be buried day after day where I need a 20-30 buck horse to get even. Yesterday it never came.

I recognize this pattern from the 90's when a friend and me analyzed for days the patterns of higher paying winners relative to our reads.

I will stop the betting here on this for now, take a small profit, bet enough to watch videos a few months.

Now it is time to see whats what with a couple of things. Now the hard work begins


Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!

Screen shots of yesterdays debacle and final overall totals for the month

I know you guys are right. I know Ted is brilliant and I know I should shut up
but I know my friend best

and I don't want to see him discouraged

Unfortunatly there is no Doctor Sartin to speak
to us about a "bad head"