How best to match just using raw/original times and the entire past performances?

[Cellarfunk]

That was an excellent explanation Rich. That you and Jim for all the effort. In this last race, often when I have a horse I think might be able to wire, I will take him and then take the top two/three "other" style horses and match them against each other. Usually the cream rises to the top.

[RichieP]

The Hat just sent this result chart for me to post. Doesn't want any unfinished business here.

Amazing how he makes these things appear man!

Thanks Jim

[CC Brown]

This race is the one I continued to miss. When I think OTE I always look for the best late horse or closer. Then I wonder why I got beat by an earlier horse. This and the other example has really helped me.
Again Thanks to Richie and The Hat for your time and effort!
CC

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by CC Brown

This race is the one I continued to miss. When I think OTE I always look for the best late horse or closer. Then I wonder why I got beat by an earlier horse.
CC

CC
Your above quote is exactly what I was doing in the first few months working with Hat.

To the point where Jim told me "Rich you are giving these sustained closers way too much credit. Part of the reason is you are giving final time too much consideration."

I have worked over a thousand races with Hat on the phone. Maybe 2 races has he ever carried the working/matching of a race to the finish.I am dead serious. He relentlessly worked/matched races with me the SAME way.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------


1st call - 2nd call - stretch call -who is the fastest horse closest to the lead positionally? Who wins?

1st call - 2nd call - stretch call -who is the fastest horse closest to the lead positionally? Who wins?

etc etc
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is very easy to say yet very hard to actually DO:

Begin trying to FOCUS more on things happening on the LEFT side of the past performance line (1st call,2nd call,positioning etc) instead of all the way to the right (final time,finish position,speed rating etc).

After a couple of weeks working races this way in earnest you will suddenly find yourself less and less betting on the deep sustained closers.

Richie

[RichieP]

** Hat Helper** - When you project a pace all the way to the finish you will be on too many sustained deep closers.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

In ALL the races I have posted here involving any sort of discussion regarding a projecting of pace NEVER has a race been projected to the finish time. NEVER.

Take a guess where I learned that man.

Train yourself through FOCUSED practice to look LEFT on the pp line. That's where the Hat works his magic ok?

This is a BIG part of Jim Bradshaw's Matchup

[MDCapper]

I had a major breakthrough with this thread, Richie, and I thank you (and MU) for presenting it.

I've always grappled with the concept of pace and though I understood it conceptually, I could never wrap my mind around "feet per second" and all that stuff in other books.

I understood the concept of "how the horse runs fast" but couldn't see it in the pacelines.

I wrestled with picking pacelines and adjusting times w/ beaten lengths always realizing the inherent weaknesses in both those processes.

But I see it clearer now...how the horse runs against the pace...unadjusted...why you pick the line you do. The thing that is so mind-boggling is that it has ALWAYS been there...staring me right in the face.

Now, don't get me wrong...I'm not ready to go out and pick 6 out of 8 race winners...I still have a couple of thousand races to look at but now I understand better what to look for.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by MDCapper

I had a major breakthrough with this thread Richie

MD first off welcome to the board man. Your above quote has made my day.That is what this whole "Hat Check" area is about. I mean that.

Merry Christmas and looking forward to hearing more from you here in the future.

Richie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Cellarfunk

That was an excellent explanation Rich. Thank you and Jim for all the effort. In this last race, often when I have a horse I think might be able to wire, I will take him and then take the top two/three "other" style horses and match them against each other. Usually the cream rises to the top.

Ok "Cfunk"!

Jim says to tell you that you are most welcome.

[sdahl]

Richie, what would you recommend if a horse has no past performance lines that are close to being the distance of today's race. For example today's race is a route and a horse only shows sprints. Usually the sprint half mile times are a little quicker than a router's.

Stan

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by sdahl

Richie, what would you recommend if a horse has no past performance lines that are close to being the distance of today's race. For example today's race is a route and a horse only shows sprints. Usually the sprint half mile times are a little quicker than a router's.

Stan

Excellent question Stan. Jim taught me to match up sprinter against sprinter lines on other horses.

Let's do a race dealing with exactly this ok?