Win Betting Strategies/Philosophies

[glass_oni0n]

Hi everybody,

I'm struggling a little bit to find a system for win betting that works for me. My year to date has been solid, as of today I'm a little over 4.5-1 on my returns and I feel as though I'm beginning to scratch the surface of financial independence, which is my ultimate goal, but my personal statistics also tell me I'm a long ways off from truly understanding what this methodology is all about, and I'm looking to rectify that.

I find that my play is too dependent on "pool-scooping," massively overlaid exacta and double combinations. To be frank, I've placed 220 bets in the calendar year of 2024 and won 15. 2 Win bets, 9 Exacta's, 3 Daily Double's and one Trifecta. Clearly my quality is good if my returns are over +450, but my quantity is another four letter word.

I've tried my best to study the Follow-Up issues and the Huey Mahl seminar, but due to the immense volume of material and perhaps a possible flaw in my reader's comprehension, I don't follow the writing styles particularly well. I often feel myself a bit adrift trying to understand as a lot of it seems to hinge on having followed the method in real time.

I understand Kelly criterion in fund management quite well when it applies to most sports, but I learned of it when betting football. One unit should roughly be 1% of your bankroll, etc. etc, and I largely use this principle for my exotic playing. The issue is I don't have a sound fundamental base for what a win bet should be at my level, the value I should be demanding to stay ahead and beat takeout, and how much is a reasonable lay out for a particular race. I understand it behooves me to make a win bet when I'd be accepting a weaker return in the exacta pool, but that's essentially it and in my opinion, for my aim, that isn't good enough.

For those of you who feel quite adept in your win-bet strategies and feel as though you get to those 60-70% marks in your win %, where did you start with your win bet strategy? Say you had a bankroll of $1500 and you try to break every race down to three primary win contenders. At what odds would you invest in a win bet? How many units of a bankroll would you invest in a horse that was at that bottom level (5/2, 3-1, 7/2 etc) vs a longer priced horse at say 6-1 or above? At what odds do you consider a worthy place bet?

I hope I've made some sense, please feel free to ask me questions if I don't, and thanks to everybody who's already been so friendly towards me so far!

Brian