working races - Page 4 - Pace and Cap

Mark · 11-28-2013, 11:23 AM

The only right way is after the fact whether you use 20-race cycles or meets or whatever.
I look for races that present problems for the handicapper, particularly rule based or software based factor analysis, combined probability stuff. The Match Up is next to impossible to program because of the problems projecting pace, Jim's voodoo concepts etc.
This race was a perfect example of ugly horses but someone had to win. The #8 horse may never win another race, look at the final time and he is a 4 yo. But in the right circumstance he becomes a fast horse in the pace scenario. He was fit and sound coming off those route races and you couldn't say that about all the entrants.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Mark · 11-28-2013, 12:09 PM

One final piece. The #8 horse was going first time blinkers! I had to look at the horse in HTR to pick this piece of information.

Bill V. · 11-28-2013, 12:14 PM

Good stuff Mark

Happy Thanksgiving

Bill

CaptDon100 · 12-02-2013, 12:06 PM

There are a lot of great replies for the race, and some great contributions to Bill V's original post. There is some really great information to be learned from this.
This is Handicapping 101 and my question was, Is this the methodology, has been answered. Bill V stays within the Sartin Methodology and handicaps his races with in those and his personal guidelines. I am in the process of building the same thing. I have noticed although, watching how Ted does a race and watching other video's,posts and reading the manuals on this site I see that everyone holds true to the methodology yet adds some of there own experience to the way they handicap. Watching some of the older PIRCO video's that each person in the Video (Sartin, The Hat, etc.) all explain there method of handicapping. Each have the same base methods and add there own method that works for them.
This race was a pass with in the methodology. It is within Ted's category of BET IT, AND FORGET IT.
The Sartin Methodology works, I believe that. How do you think the 1st eight people with gambling related felonies felt when Dr Sartin said to them, I aspire to cure your losing gambler syndrome with a winning procedure formulated by us, as a group. To cure there losing by winning.
That room must have went wild.
Yes the methodology works, and I want to learn it, but I will be always on the look out for any opportunity that presents itself, Bet it and forget it.
Thanks
Capt Don

11-28-2013, 12:14 PM	#33
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Thanks Good stuff Mark Happy Thanksgiving Bill

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11-28-2013, 11:23 AM	#31
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	The only right way is after the fact whether you use 20-race cycles or meets or whatever. I look for races that present problems for the handicapper, particularly rule based or software based factor analysis, combined probability stuff. The Match Up is next to impossible to program because of the problems projecting pace, Jim's voodoo concepts etc. This race was a perfect example of ugly horses but someone had to win. The #8 horse may never win another race, look at the final time and he is a 4 yo. But in the right circumstance he becomes a fast horse in the pace scenario. He was fit and sound coming off those route races and you couldn't say that about all the entrants. Happy Thanksgiving!

11-28-2013, 12:09 PM	#32
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	One final piece. The #8 horse was going first time blinkers! I had to look at the horse in HTR to pick this piece of information.

12-02-2013, 12:06 PM	#34
CaptDon100 Grade 2 Join Date: May 2013 Location: Fells Point MD Posts: 95	There are a lot of great replies for the race, and some great contributions to Bill V's original post. There is some really great information to be learned from this. This is Handicapping 101 and my question was, Is this the methodology, has been answered. Bill V stays within the Sartin Methodology and handicaps his races with in those and his personal guidelines. I am in the process of building the same thing. I have noticed although, watching how Ted does a race and watching other video's,posts and reading the manuals on this site I see that everyone holds true to the methodology yet adds some of there own experience to the way they handicap. Watching some of the older PIRCO video's that each person in the Video (Sartin, The Hat, etc.) all explain there method of handicapping. Each have the same base methods and add there own method that works for them. This race was a pass with in the methodology. It is within Ted's category of BET IT, AND FORGET IT. The Sartin Methodology works, I believe that. How do you think the 1st eight people with gambling related felonies felt when Dr Sartin said to them, I aspire to cure your losing gambler syndrome with a winning procedure formulated by us, as a group. To cure there losing by winning. That room must have went wild. Yes the methodology works, and I want to learn it, but I will be always on the look out for any opportunity that presents itself, Bet it and forget it. Thanks Capt Don