SA 6.5 furlong Down the Hill turf course

[Ted Craven]

Here are the RDSS Analysis screens, in Val4 mode, using Pete's lines (all last line):

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

I will gladly take the Blue Star win on the 5 using phase 1
however why are my readouts so different than yours
if your using val 4 also

[Bill V.]

out of the box

[Bill Lyster]

Okay, its after the fact, but I would give the 3 a slight edge over the 1 to win; now I have seen scratches so the 3 is out. I like the 1 and if the price is right the 2 might be a good exacta placement if the 5 is not up to it, so 1 and 5 to win.

[For The Lead]

First I am going to post the PP's for the three horses I did NOT give a line.

#2



This horse has only three lifetimes races, two of them are more than a year old and they were route races. In its' most recent line it did not...
1 - run 1st, 2nd or 3rd
2 - show good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and or second calls
3 - did not show a good middle move (between the first and second calls) to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.

This horse gets eliminated.

#3



This horse has NEVER ran a sprint race on the turf. It has only two races in the last 90 days, both on the turf, both were routes. There is no line for this horse, so it gets eliminated as a contender.

This horse ended up being scratched.

#6



This horse has three races in the last 90 days, two routes and one sprint, all on the turf. It showed good early form in the routes, but that doesn't count today. It's last race it did not...
1 - run 1st, 2nd or 3rd
2 - show good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and or second calls
3 - did not show a good middle move (between the first and second calls) to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.

It does show one good race, in a sprint and on the turf, but that was 351 days ago. I can't use that race.

This horse gets eliminated.

The next post will show the various screens for the rest of the horses that did get a line and are therefore contenders. You will notice that the last line was used for each horse, and why not(?), they were all good lines.
I will also post the results (chart) of the race.

[For The Lead]

Here are the various screen shots for the contenders.

ORIGINAL LINES


TPR


SEGMENTS


BL/BL


RESULTS

[PeteC]

Thanks to the Bill's, Ted and FTL for taking the time here. Boy, the programs really nailed this one easily. Nice payoffs for those who nailed the winner and exacta.

[Bill V.]

Thank you Pete C

FTL I have a question. The 2 6 and 7 all come out of the same race SA 2-13 race 6
Since according to the tandem manual if the winner of the tandem race is not present in todays race the procedure is to take the best finisher of the tandem
and any horse that finishes within 4 BL of the top finisher as long as the top finisher is a true contender
since we have made the 7 a contender and since the 6 finished 1/4 of a length
behind the best finisher of the tandem(7) should we include the 6 here ?
I would give the 6 a (+) it was in the front half of a 10 horse field
it ran evenly, slowly gaining on the POR to finish beaten only 2 BL
The fact that the 6 has a plus race on the track distance and surface
should help

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thank you Pete C

FTL I have a question. The 2 6 and 7 all come out of the same race SA 2-13 race 6
Since according to the tandem manual if the winner of the tandem race is not present in todays race the procedure is to take the best finisher of the tandem
and any horse that finishes within 4 BL of the top finisher as long as the top finisher is a true contender
since we have made the 7 a contender and since the 6 finished 1/4 of a length
behind the best finisher of the tandem(7) should we include the 6 here ?
I would give the 6 a (+) it was in the front half of a 10 horse field
it ran evenly, slowly gaining on the POR to finish beaten only 2 BL
The fact that the 6 has a plus race on the track distance and surface
should help

Attachment 33859

I have posted about this a few times before. I’m not a fan of the “tandem concept” and here is the reason.

Every race is unique unto itself. The race you are looking at is the first race of its’ kind and there will never be another one like it.

What happened in some previous race was a result of the horses that were in the race.
1 – the number of early horses
2 – the number of pressers
3 – the number of closers
4 – the number of horses moving up in class
5 – the number of horses dropping down in class
6 – and all the other usual things that make up a horse race.

Is today’s race the same as that previous race? NO! Then why should we trust a horse who ran a bad race, but qualifies on the tandem concept, to get into today’s race off a bad line?

I wrote a thread in the teaching area titled “Bill V goes the extra mile”. Your efforts in handicapping that race will get you more winners and/or less losers than the tandem concept.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Ted

I will gladly take the Blue Star win on the 5 using phase 1
however why are my readouts so different than yours
if your using val 4 also

Bill,

I don't know why your Val4 TPR readouts, with those settings, are so different from either FTL's or mine (which appear to be identical). I used the same settings as you (and I only used Val4 mode and those lines because that is what Pete was showing - normally I use Default mode and +- 15 DTV Min/Max).

All your numbers are way high (SR, TE, EPR, LPR, CPR).

Let's debug this by email and telephone if need be. Please email me a copy of your Configure.ini file for starters, and we'll take it from there.

Ted