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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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03-28-2016, 11:39 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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gl45 adding the dirt category to the overall trainer yearly percentage is an exact example of putting into context the trainer, which I said you must do. Problem is I never would have the #7 as a contender and NO Sartin TEACHINGS WOULD EVER HAVE HAD THE #7 HORSE as a contender. Any advance factors etc. is only applied to true contenders.This is kind of bending the truth to fit the results. Applying any factors or analysis is only done to contenders. There is no logical way to come up with the # 7 in the La. Derby as a contender.
Perhaps you just found the key to the mint. Would anyone else have ever used the #7 in the La. Derby as a contender? If you can pick contenders like that you're going to be very rich. I'm not convinced this technique will on a consistent basis pick contenders or winners. Hey look with the top 5 you could have had a big Tri. and six deep the superfecta. Mitch44 |
03-28-2016, 11:52 AM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
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The only time i consider jockeys and trainers and all that noise is for cheaper Maiden claiming races. For example, at Fairgrounds on derby day saturday, in the first race which was a cheap maiden claimer, i had 4 contenders but did not want to bet the race because of the fact that they were not strong contenders. However, i had made note that the #10 was getting a rider change from a bug boy, to one of the best jocks in Louisiana for a trainer with no wins at the meet. He won at 8/1 and was a good start to my day. This doesn't always work, but i have taken note that in cheap maiden races is the best time to use this approach when you have weak contenders and the race offers some value.
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03-28-2016, 12:06 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I'll repeat for clarity the horse accounts for 90%. Trainers, jockeys and everything else takes a backseat. Personally I never consider the jockey. These are not primary factors in horseracing and take a back seat to the basics of hcp. such as consistency, surface, distance, class or conditions of the race etc. etc.
Mitch44 |
03-28-2016, 12:13 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Mitch,
My contenders were 1-2-5....#7 was the intruder No I didn't found the key to the mint, but a weekly paycheck does help. Last edited by gl45; 08-02-2017 at 08:40 AM. |
03-28-2016, 12:22 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Agree
I suppose a trainer can work to find the best
track , distance and footing. And maybe teach a maiden what racing is about, But the best trainers are the ones with the best stock and the top Jockeys ride for good trainers , I avoid the type of races were my phase 1 ratings are secondary , what I mean is if a race has a bunch of unknowns because of limited similar pace lines then the jockey trainer stats are probably a better indication but then there are so many variables to stats . |
03-28-2016, 12:56 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Horses don't choose and put themselves into various racing events.
Horses don't choose distances, surface, race condition...etc...etc... Horses don't know how consistent or classy they are. They may search for food and water themselves when its time to eat Don't decide when its time to get some exercise in preparation for the next race Horses don't know how to administer therapeutic treatment for any ailment they might have. They don't bet on themselves because they know they’re in top condition. Etc., Etc.... |
03-28-2016, 01:47 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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The best trainers lose about 80% of their races and its because the other trainers are also going and trying all out. Their also choosing the right race conditions of dis., surface etc.There can only be one winner. The public actually does a better job at picking winners then trainers, it all comes down to the horse and its ability. Except for some poor luck etc. or occasional things during the running of the race the best horse wins.
Trainers, jockeys and owners all become blinded by their own personal interest and aren't as honest as the public or us as handicappers are. No different then any parent when it comes to their kids. Their the best in all categories such as brains, looks etc. At the classiest tracks of N.Y. or Cailf. any trainer or jockey can win if given the right horse. To include ranked 20th in the standing as they'll beat the top ranked ones with the best horse. Trainers and jockeys just aren't primary factors. As handicappers its up to us to determine the top contenders, pace lines and interpretation of readouts. We control our own destiny. Mitch44 |
03-28-2016, 02:07 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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gl45: Bris # of win bets and % win are deceptive because of playing multiple horses in a race etc. The high ROI of +1.84 tells me there was a big payoff or two in the winners or an exacta etc.
Regardless the bottom line was money won and you showed a profit. Big congratulations are due! Nice job and well done. keep it up and repeat it. Again great job. Mitch44 |
03-28-2016, 07:44 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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GL45
Great job on the wagering Jeff |
03-28-2016, 08:12 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Mitch, Jeff,
thanks for the kind words. I think we all agree that the purpose of handicapping is to be successful in make money by choosing high odds horses. |
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