Mountaineer Race 8 June 22 - Pace and Cap

mikesal57 · 06-22-2009, 06:08 PM

another race that i like..

the big favorite #3 is 7/5 and won 2 in a row...

he can win race witha 46 + halfs , but loses races under 46..

look at #6, he can win on lead and from second position..vs sub 46 halfs

claimed 3 back tried last 2 races on poly now drops and back on dirt.

at 6-1 worth a shot

gl mike

SUPERTECH · 06-22-2009, 10:18 PM

Outstanding!! Good Skill.

Capcondo · 06-22-2009, 10:59 PM

After giving me the winner, I talked myself into the 4.

PeteC · 06-23-2009, 12:36 AM

Nice call, Mike! Ran just like you thought it would.

RichieP · 06-23-2009, 07:00 AM

Nice call Mike!!!!!

mikesal57 · 06-23-2009, 05:39 PM

thxs guys....

i do get lucky one in a while

Capcondo · 06-24-2009, 01:20 AM

Although the winner only paid $6.80 (you must have had a ton of money on this horse bringing the price down!), the $2 pick three paid $127.60. Now, a fair pay on a parlay in the 6th, 7th, and 8th where the winners paid $6.40, $5.80, and $6.80 would have been:

($6.40 * 1.9 + 6.40) * 2.4 + ($6.40 * 1.9 + 6.40) = $63.10 (The winning price from the sixth times the win odds from the seventh + $6.40 which equals $18.56 times the win odds from the 8th (2.4) + $18.56 = $63.10.

So, the pick 3 paid twice what a parlay paid. I suspect this had something to do with the M/L odds on the 6 in the 8th race.

mikesal57 · 06-24-2009, 07:18 AM

perfecta kinda high too

thxs Cap

mike

06-23-2009, 07:00 AM	#5
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Nice call Mike!!!!! Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

06-24-2009, 01:20 AM	#7
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Such Modesty! Although the winner only paid $6.80 (you must have had a ton of money on this horse bringing the price down!), the $2 pick three paid $127.60. Now, a fair pay on a parlay in the 6th, 7th, and 8th where the winners paid $6.40, $5.80, and $6.80 would have been: ($6.40 * 1.9 + 6.40) * 2.4 + ($6.40 * 1.9 + 6.40) = $63.10 (The winning price from the sixth times the win odds from the seventh + $6.40 which equals $18.56 times the win odds from the 8th (2.4) + $18.56 = $63.10. So, the pick 3 paid twice what a parlay paid. I suspect this had something to do with the M/L odds on the 6 in the 8th race.

06-24-2009, 07:18 AM	#8
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	perfecta kinda high too thxs Cap mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Race Analysis Confirmation using the VELOCITY SCREEN	Bill Lyster	RDSS	2	12-08-2011 01:19 AM
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup	RichieP	Hat Check - How Can We Help You?	1	05-25-2009 09:52 AM
Bread and Butter Race...	lueylump	RDSS	2	05-11-2009 05:05 PM
Mountaineer Park Feb 16, 2009	Bob Cochran	Selections	0	02-16-2009 04:38 PM
HOL 11-29-08 Race -3 (Fairly Straight Forward Race)	partsnut	Selections	3	11-29-2008 06:51 PM

06-22-2009, 10:18 PM	#2
SUPERTECH AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2006 Location: Goshen, New York Posts: 10	Outstanding!! Good Skill.

06-22-2009, 10:59 PM	#3
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Well Done After giving me the winner, I talked myself into the 4.

06-23-2009, 12:36 AM	#4
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Nice call, Mike! Ran just like you thought it would.

06-23-2009, 05:39 PM	#6
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	thxs guys.... i do get lucky one in a while __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack