5/9 Hol 6th

[PeteC]

I saw this race today at Hollywood and found it very interesting from a visual match-up standpoint. There are several NTL types who have fast pacelines down the hill at SA. There are a couple horses that run OTE that are coming off long layoffs with no turf form. Then you can throw in a deep-closer who has never been close on the turf but comes off a second place finish in a fast-paced dirt sprint.

[Bill Lyster]

The 1-3-5 have been off 10 months to almost 2 years.

The7-8-9 all look to need the lead with the 7-8 having fought it out in last outting, but 9 has opened up lengths on lead and had a six furlong time one full second faster that 7-8. The 7 ran fastest 1F, but I think these 3 cancel each other out.

The 2 and 4 are legit pressers, even tho 4 won on lead his other races show ability to press. I would prefer the 4 over the 2.

The 8 is interesting as its the only horse in the field with more than one win, in fact, SEVEN WINS. FTL has pointed this out several times. Down at the bottom of the PPs you can see a nice pressing job in an open NW1x

I'm thinking maybe a presser box might pay well here.

GL to all

[Bill Lyster]

The 2 is scratched.

[PeteC]

Hi Bill-

I remember Richie talking about OTE races like this. If I remember correctly the guideline was something like: When there are no pure OTE runners that are fast vs today's pace from the right position then you should look back to the early group for a runner that is fast and can pass horses. The 8 and 4 seem to be the only 2 that can do that. Maybe they can sit behind the 7 and 9 and pounce in the stretch.

[Bill Lyster]

not a lot of conclusions from the limited track profile

Four races
winners ran 6-5-3-1; 2-2-2-1; 5-2-2-1; 2-1-1-1

the last one was 2nd by a head. I would say slight advantage to close up OTE types.

[PeteC]

Well, one of the early horses did sit back and run on to win...but it was the 9.

It's interesting to look at the chart today: it ran positions of 3-2-1-1. Looking at line 3 in the PP's it ran 3-2-1 for the 1st three calls before fading to 5th in a fast dirt sprint.

[Bill Lyster]

Pete:
I can see it now, but honestly, I thought it was just the normal progression of a horse learning how to win. When in the last two races it had an open length lead in a fast time I did not consider it reverting to pressing mode.

Should have given him credit as an E/P. Will note that for the future

I guess if you give him and E/P designation and then see that its six furlong split of 105.4 TWICE, you would have to consider this one a FAST horse. I saw the fast 6f time, but could not connect the dots on the FAST part.

Next time.

Bill

[PeteC]

Bill:

I hope I didn't sound like I saw that beforehand because I DID NOT. I saw it exactly the way you did. I guess I made that comment to see if there were any matchers out there who could see that beforehand and if there are clues to detect that in the future. If not, is this just a race that is tough to get using early/OTE? Software users get that horse easily on top I'm sure, but for me it was tough to see using E/OTE to throw out horses the way the Hat and Richie taught (at least to me).

As I mentioned in my earlier post, it was a breakthrough for me when I started considering horses who can run well E or OTE before looking at the pure OTE horses, but to this day I still miss too many of those races. Sometimes its backing a horse like the 9 and then watching it try for the lead and get dueled into the ground or taking a "combo" horse or OTE runner and watching one of the pure E's win like yesterday.

SOS Richie !!!!!!!

[Bill Lyster]

I did not take it in any bad way. Hat said to look at ALL races and I did not give it enough to see the pressing possibility. Too quick to throw out, just like you.

ONward!