Make Money With Early

[Bill V.]

here is a tricky race can we make money with a early ?

Here are my lines

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[Bill V.]

5 6 7

[Bill V.]

Segs


BLBL

Dream race FPS

[Bill V.]

The chart

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

here is a tricky race can we make money with a early ?

Here are my lines

It's not as 'tricky" as you think.

Below I have attached the horses in the race once again. This time I marked a few things.

First, I eliminated races that were the wrong distance and surface.
Second, I marked a couple of horses where they are questionable. As an example;
#2, the second best early type, has been claimed out of every claiming race it has been in, so it is having trouble finding a home where it can get into a routine. Secondly, I don't understand the reason for all the claims. I marked where this horse has just 4 wins from 40 lifetime starts without a win in its' last 10 starts. What's the interest?
#3, here is another horse that has 1 win in 12 starts this year and is winless in its' last 10 starts.
#7, this horse has just 4 wins in 50 lifetime starts.

By comparison, the #1 horse has won 9 races in just 29 starts.

Third, after excluding the races that were not similar in distance and surface, I marked the first call and the second call for each horse.
All you have to do is look at these two calls for each horse and it becomes clear which horse will have the lead.
You will also have no problem in identifying the horse that appears to be the sole threat to the #1 horse, which is the #2 horse.

Unfortunately for the #2 horse, it just isn't fast enough to outrun the #1 early and with a lifetime record of 4 for 40, it just doesn't win often. The rest of the horses don't have the style required to put pressure on the #1 early, therefore, the #1 is a very good candidate to go wire to wire against this field.

This race was discussed, in part, in another thread. If you would like to read what I wrote there, here is a link. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=8784&page=4

[For The Lead]

Here are horses 6 and 7 from PRX race 3.

[For The Lead]

I didn't have to look far for this material. It comes from Bill V's post in the contest today. Here's is what I said to Bill in an email in answer to the question he asked in his post, "Will anybody have any late energy to close and charge down the lane?"

Let me try to answer your question.

By my measure, there are 4 EARLY types in this race of a field of 7.
The #2 horse is miserably bad. Down to 6 horses.
Forget the energy generated ESP, just look at the 6 horses that remain.
Is there really any horse that can close? NO.
So what happens in a race like this.
One of the early horses is going to win.
Which one is the most likely?
The one that can outrun the other early horses right from the gate.
In other words, the BEST early.
In this case....YOUR #8!

I also told Bill, the best 3 first fraction horses (by my measure) ran 1st, 3rd, 2nd.

Here is a link to Bill's post.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=8776&page=2

[For The Lead]

JIMBOB1002 played the 2nd race at FL today in the December contest.
Bill V and I had a conversation about the winner (which JIMBOB1002 had) and I wanted to share our discussion about it with everyone.

First, I will write the discussion, followed by a look at the horse.

Bill V pointed out that he labeled the horse an "EP" because it was no worse than 3rd at the second call and within 3 lengths of the winner at the second call.

I sent Bill the same screen shot posted here and explained that although he was technically correct, the horse's first call position and beaten lengths were actually better than the second call. I said," if this horse could talk, it would be screaming that it wants to be on or very close to the lead at the first call".

Also, in this race the#1 horse was actually the best first fraction horse, but it is 2 for 58 lifetime and not a serious contender for the win. However, breaking from the #1 post and with a short run to the first turn, there was no denying the #1 horse getting the lead from the gate.

The winner (#8) is the second best first fraction horse in the race, but is breaking from the outside 8 post. With a short run to the first turn, the best the #8 can hope for is to establish position around the first turn to the backstretch, at which point it can make its' run for the lead.

All of this is great in theory, but how do we know if the horse can "pull it off"?
Let's look at the horse's PP's. We can see it has only had three route races. The first two were for the same claiming price as today, but had a NW2Y (non winners of 2 races in a year) condition. The next route race was the horse's last line. Although it was running for the same claiming price again, you can see that there is no condition. That means the horse was in an "OPEN" race, which means any horse, whose connections are willing to lose the horse through the claim box for today's claiming price, is allowed to enter. It is a better race. Better than the other two route races the winner was in and certainly better than today's race, which although it is the same claiming price again, it has a NW1Y (non winners of a race in a year) condition. So the winner is getting a significant drop in condition today. In cheap claiming races these conditions are meaningful.

By the way, congratulations to JIMBOB1002 for connecting with this $32.80 WINNER!!

[For The Lead]

In one of the follow ups, Doc wrote that there are very few races with more than 5 legitimate contenders. What doc didn’t say is, there are good amount of races that DO NOT have 5 legitimate contenders.

The 4th race at PEN on 12.6.12 is an example.
Here is my run down of the horses in the race.

#1 – I only have the last 3 lines to choose from. Although the last line is on a muddy track, the horse’s only win came on an off track. Since the last line is a + race, I used it
#2 – no line, ML 50/1 and no form
#3 – no line, I could give this horse the benefit of the doubt and enter it off the line 2 back, but it is 1 for 33 lifetime. I can’t get real excited about this horse.
#4 – no line, no recent sprint races
#5 – last line, the horse led at the first two calls before fading to 4th. It’s a (+) line. Also, in this field of pretty bad horses, this horse appears to be the early speed of the race. It is also just 1 for 6 lifetime.
#6 – no line, no recent + or (+) race in a sprint. It is also 1 for 27 lifetime.
#7 – no line, it has a ML of 20/1 and is 1 for 40 lifetime. I’m not going back to line 3 for this one.
#8 – no line, no recent + or (+) line in a sprint. It is also 1 for 31 lifetime.
#9 – 2 back, I know that is the horse’s maiden win, but this is a NW2L. I excuse the last race as it was the first time against winners.
#10 – no line, ML is 30/1 and it has no recent form
#11 – no line, no recent sprint races. At 1 for 19 lifetime, it is approaching “never never land”.

Take note of the lines on the first screen shot. Of the 3 contenders in this race, one is early and the other two are other than early.

Also, many of you have read in the Match Up Forum about the “Fastest Pace Last Race”. This belongs to the #5 horse that actually “set” those fractions.

There are no early horses capable of running with the #5 horse.

The #5 wins wire to wire and pays $7.00.

[For The Lead]

There are a couple of old axioms in handicapping a horse race.
Axiom “A” – if there is one early horse in a race with all closers, BET THE LONE EARLY HORSE.
Axiom “B” – if there is one closer in a race with all early horses, BET THE CLOSER.

Take a look at the 7th race at PRX on 12.08.12

#1 – line 2…I’m a big believer in using the last line UNLESS there is a valid excuse to go back a line. The last line for this horse is a good line. A (+) line. The horse tried for the lead for ½ mile and faded, BUT, that was a 7 furlong race. Today’s race is 6 furlongs. Look at the rest of this horse’s races. Does it EVER go for the lead? NO! Line two is more appropriate to this horse’s normal running style.
#2 – line 1…this horse doesn’t need the lead in order to win, BUT, it wants to be up front with the leader. It has never passed a horse in the stretch.
#3 – no line, this horse has been away from the races for 532 days. I don’t consider this horse a contender, BUT, make no mistake about it, if this horse runs at all today, it will run early, or, try to. Only once has it ever passed a horse in the stretch.
#4 – line 1…the last line is the only sprint race showing for this horse. It is a 7 furlong line. This horse will not run early or as an early presser. It will come off the pace.
#5 – line 1…this horse is an early presser. Only once has it passed a horse in the stretch.
#6 – line 1…this horse is an early presser. I used the last line even though it is 7 furlongs because the horse went for the lead and has done the same thing at today’s distance. Only once has it passed a horse in the stretch.
#7 – line 1…this is the early horse horse in the race. Notice how many times it has fought for the lead, not just at the first call, but at the first AND second calls. In one race where it didn’t have to fight for the lead, it went wire to wire. Only once has it passed a horse in the stretch.
#8 – no line…it has been off for 157 days and shows no recent form.



In my experience axiom “A” is true in most cases. Axiom “B”…not so much. Why?
Because if the LONE EARLY horse is in any kind of good form, there isn’t much any of the closers can do about it.
However, when there are a lot of early horses and one closer, a dominant early horse can relegate the other early horses to chasers that are unable to pass horses, which pretty much takes them out of the race. This leaves the lone closer in a bad position. The “speed duel” that was expected doesn’t materialize and the early horse wins.

Notice the “RS” labels on the various screen shots. I changed them to the designations shown, as I saw it. The “key” designation is the “F” (fighter) on the #7 horse. Take a good look at its’ total PP’s and compare them to the other early types or early presser types in the race. Then notice the areas I marked in red on the various screens. You will see that the #7 is an early fighter that will have the lead at the second call (top of the stretch). Since the early speed duel never materialized, the horses that might have benefited from the speed duel (#1 or #4) are trapped behind a dominant early.
The #7 wins the race wire to wire as the dominant early horse and pays $15.20