Contender Or Not - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 07-16-2006, 08:35 PM

This was from today a 7 furlong event at CT.What I would like to know if you would have made this horse a contender or not.I have to do it manually as I dont have the pp's.I had determined the fulcrum to be 47.3.

DATE DIST 1C 2C FT 1CBL 2CBL 3CBL FINAL

JUN21 6.5 23.4 47.4 120.4 4.5 5.5 8.0 11.75

MAY26 7.0 24.0 48.2 127.4 2.5 3.5 9.0 14.0

APR 15 7.0 23.2 47.2 128.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 0.0

shoeless · 07-16-2006, 08:36 PM

That came out crappy if anyone can straighten it up I would appreciate it.

tom · 07-16-2006, 09:51 PM

DATE DIST 1C 2C FT 1CBL 2CBL 3CBL FINAL

JUN21 6.5 23.4 47.4 120.4 4.5 5.5 8.0 11.75

MAY26 7.0 24.0 48.2 127.4 2.5 3.5 9.0 14.0

APR 15 7.0 23.2 47.2 128.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 0.0

shoeless · 07-17-2006, 06:41 AM

Tom thanks.

Rxlawyer · 07-18-2006, 06:40 AM

Jeff:

There is very little information to go on to make a decision, but I probably would make the horse a contender. All we can do is analyze the times as presented. On April 15 the horse ran what looks like a very decent race against the fulcrum time. That race alone makes the horse a contender.

My guess is that you are thrown off by the poor race against a 48.2 on May 26. That looks pretty miserable. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO ONE RACE! Horses come in to form and go out of form. Many things happen during a race. Search for the truth that is the overall actual ability of the horse. On June 21 the horse ran a "race within a race" for 4 furlongs. That is a sign the horse is coming in to form. Definitely a contender next time out.

Look for explanations as to a poor race. Wrong class, running trouble, wrong surface, etc. If you do not see anything then use your intuition and all available evidence to determine whether the race should be excused.

Gary

07-16-2006, 08:35 PM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Contender Or Not This was from today a 7 furlong event at CT.What I would like to know if you would have made this horse a contender or not.I have to do it manually as I dont have the pp's.I had determined the fulcrum to be 47.3. DATE DIST 1C 2C FT 1CBL 2CBL 3CBL FINAL JUN21 6.5 23.4 47.4 120.4 4.5 5.5 8.0 11.75 MAY26 7.0 24.0 48.2 127.4 2.5 3.5 9.0 14.0 APR 15 7.0 23.2 47.2 128.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 0.0

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07-16-2006, 08:36 PM	#2
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	That came out crappy if anyone can straighten it up I would appreciate it.

07-16-2006, 09:51 PM	#3
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	DATE DIST 1C 2C FT 1CBL 2CBL 3CBL FINAL JUN21 6.5 23.4 47.4 120.4 4.5 5.5 8.0 11.75 MAY26 7.0 24.0 48.2 127.4 2.5 3.5 9.0 14.0 APR 15 7.0 23.2 47.2 128.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 0.0

07-17-2006, 06:41 AM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Tom thanks.

07-18-2006, 06:40 AM	#5
Rxlawyer Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 212	Jeff: There is very little information to go on to make a decision, but I probably would make the horse a contender. All we can do is analyze the times as presented. On April 15 the horse ran what looks like a very decent race against the fulcrum time. That race alone makes the horse a contender. My guess is that you are thrown off by the poor race against a 48.2 on May 26. That looks pretty miserable. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO ONE RACE! Horses come in to form and go out of form. Many things happen during a race. Search for the truth that is the overall actual ability of the horse. On June 21 the horse ran a "race within a race" for 4 furlongs. That is a sign the horse is coming in to form. Definitely a contender next time out. Look for explanations as to a poor race. Wrong class, running trouble, wrong surface, etc. If you do not see anything then use your intuition and all available evidence to determine whether the race should be excused. Gary