Tote Xray

[stormbringer]

To: Bill V., Ted, and Richie P.
From : Stormbringer!! "say it loud."

Re: model of tote xray

Would you make a model of Tote Xray?
If yes how would you do it.


Thanks guys

"say it loud."

STORMBRINGER!!!!!!!!!

[Bill V.]

Hello Storm

If I was to model the Tote Xray I would make a simple spreadsheet
I would make 4 tiers
1.The 0-0 TX( tote Xray)
the 2.Red color , 3,The yellow and 4. the green shaded numbers.
I would chart were the winners are coming from at 1 minute to post
and what the winners of these 4 shaded and 0-0 horses are paying
The 0-0 horse being the best?

I have been doing a very informal scan of the tote. It has shown me that a clear advantage 0-0 horse,
lets say the next highest horses rating is greater than 2 from the 0-0 horse
Has been a very good bet with many winners paying over 9/2

As with anything nothing works all the time and watching the tote x ray
is fine but late money changes things very much very often

Hope I am clear and a help.
Good Skill

[stormbringer]

Bill,
Thanks so much for your reply...I'll give the other two a little time to see if I get a reply. You are a very nice guy and I think very highly of you. If there is anything I can do for you ask.

[Ted Craven]

Storm,

The Tote Xray (TX) is a collection of ratio formulae between the 3 straight pools. There is a high co-relation between the 0.0 horse and the favourite, usually fairly low odds. That's why it is not coloured even though it is the best (too low value for profit). If however, the 0.0 horse is decent odds or not the favourite, you should pay attention.

I would not put much credence into the TX at all until about 2 MTP, then Bill's observations apply. The thing about this formula is: while win odds (and place and show pool net odds) will absolutely fluctuate in the last few tote ticks (and after the bell), the ratios represented by the TX will often fluctuate much less. Thus any of the first 4 TX ranks, combined with bettable odds, are intended to report a crowd consensus (possibly sometimes influenced by 'smart money' whatever that is) NOT represented by the simple Win Odds alone.

And sometimes, when you have no other info to go on, you must go on what you've got. Thus if you want to be in a horizontal bet and have to play 2 YO maidens (e.g. today KEE race 2) or need to consider other first timers with good works, say, or Foreigners, or longer layoff horses returning today - or other inscrutables - well, pass if you must, or track the ratios as discussed and wager if good odds present themselves.

Be careful about chasing mirages, though. In the win pool, the top 3 betting odds (look for colour ) represent a very high percentage of winners (80%+ ?) so you might track that in relation to TX ranks, just to make sure you're not going on a longshot bender. Still, the 3rd ranked Odds (yellow colour) can still be 4-1 through 8-1: lots of room for good mutuels.

It might also be possible to construct a betting method dutching 3 or more horses, using even a hint of handicapping for eliminations, to grind out ongoing profits using the TX alone, though I am not much interested in that personally. It is certainly possible also, that some trainers or betting parties at some tracks make the TX a more (or less) formful tool. There's a LOT more data-keeping that can be done and analysed on this and other tote stream data, and I'm excited to pursue this more properly as we go along.

Hope that helps a bit.

Ted

[stormbringer]

Ted,

have you ever seen the album cover of Emerson, Lake and Palmer's "love beach" ?

Thanks for the information I have not read much about this at all (xtote)

[Ted Craven]

I have now!

[stormbringer]

maybe Jimmy BUffett ? I love ELP and the group is was real big in Canada.
Ask Richie I bet he knows.