Quick Pick 3 - Contender Selection

[Mrbill]

Good morning;

I posted a result yesterday regarding a pick 3 play and Ted asked me to show how I did it. I like to play horizontal wagers, doubles, pick 3, and pick 4's. I usually like to pick a couple of different tracks to play steady so I can develop a model and hone in on what's important during contender selection. I decided this winter that I am going to play Fairgrounds as one of my main tracks, so I'm just starting to build a model. Fairgrounds is an hour behind so when I can get home from work, I can play the late pick 3 or 4 depending on the number of races. I decided to play the last pick 3 yesterday when I got home so here is how I did my contender selection. I use most of the screens and tab through each screen - here is how I do it. The first thing I do is to look at pace lines that are selected. I usually use the ones the program picks although I make changes if it is a router in a sprint race,etc. The race below is the last race in the sequence. I use the energy tab to start:



I eliminate any horse on this screen that doesn't have a colored number here as based on my experience, they usually don't win. Here is what I end up with:



Next I go to the PMTR/TRP tab and eliminate any horse that isn't within 10 points of the top rating:



Here is what's left:

[IMG]

As you can see, using these 2 eliminations I'm down to 4 contenders. Keep in mind that the more contentious a race is, there may be a lot more contenders here early on. Continued in the next post.

[Mrbill]

The next screen is the segments screen. I usually look at this to see if how it looks. One of the things I do if I have a track model is to check the computed beaten lengths at the finish. Based on past information in some of my models and tracks is that this can be a very strong indicator for the win if you are in the top 4. Since I don't have a model for the Fairgrounds yet to determine if this a viable statement, I didn't use it here.

I go to the next tab which is primary factors and I look for any horses that don't have any colored highlights and eliminate those horses. That wasn't the case with this race so I didn't have any eliminations.

Next I will go to BL/BL screen and see who are the top 4 contenders and make a note of that. The last screen is RX; I will look at this to see which horses from BL/BL have strong corollary support. Doing all that I have the following horses from each race as my contenders:



As you can see, I've eliminated the horses that haven't had a start on turf as they usually don't win even though there numbers look very strong and I have 3 contenders.





As you can see, I have 3 contenders in the first two legs and four in the last. Depending on how many contenders I have left in any leg, I'll go to the POH screens and see if I can make any eliminations. I may also look at the horses past performances to see if any are declining in form or not. I usually end up with 3 or 4 horses at the end. In this case I eliminated the 12. I got lucky in the last leg as when I did the wager, I see I put in the 3 horse instead of the 13. I modify this method some when I have a model as I can then usually have some other elimination factors available. Good luck to everyone!

[Lt1]

Thanks for posting your approach Bill.
Tim

[Mr.Pagine]

Bill,

You learn something new every single day, and your approach is much appreciated, and fantastic.

Don't forget to cash!!

Jon

[ignacio todoberto bernal]

thanks bill............
nash

[Mrbill]

Thanks guys, I appreciate the kind words. Yesterdays hit was nice but check this one out........I used the same methodology I described above and just hit this a few minutes ago:



I'm alive for the last leg with the 5,9,13 with payoffs of $686, $501, and $3200 which would make a very nice day. 5 mtp.......

[Mrbill]

The 9 wins for another nice hit. I was watching the race and my heart starting pounding when the 13 was making the turn in 3rd, he was moving with the 9 but got pinched off when the 9 made his move.

[IMG][/IMG]

[Lt1]

Outstanding Job Bill.
Tim

[darmar]

Real great job on this one Bill l!!! When you are willing to put in the work the REWARDS will follow.
Congratulations
Darryl

[shoeless]

Great job Mr. Bill thanks also giving a detailed approach on how
you do it. Very nice of you to share.

Jeff