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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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08-28-2018, 01:32 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Abigail Adams Handicap
This is the first handicap race I have come across since Ted added the weight
on the entry screen for the upcoming updates on RDSS This is a restricted 25,000 stakes race for 3+ horses bred in Mass who have never won $50,000 The 3 high weights are 2 # 5 and #8 Here are my notes Abigail Adams Handicap ST 25000 Mass breds Horse 1 Colins Go Go Today is not the day to try to win first-time. 0-26 maiden Horse 2 Angry Patty She has been off 339 days She ran well after a 274-day layoff but the percentages are poor to win after a year off. Horse 3 Greta She shows early speed but not much else Horse 4 Indian Legacy E7 Great early speed just another day in this form cycle I will rate him from line 1 it's a (+) Horse 5 Jeb Returns to FL from Suf. last three races were against Stake 50's I will excuse line 1 and 2 and use the + races line 3 against better than she will face today one of the high weights. Horse 6 Cheer For Grace Still a maiden and only as 1 + paceline in ten races Horse 7 Dr. Ruthless Keeps trying against in stakes level races but just can't run a plus race as a sprinter Horse 8 Tropical Joy Solid stakes level horse, Has 8 + plus races against 35000 claimers and 5 stakes races in a row, Both lines 1 and 2 are + races Line 1 is on a sloppy track Line 2 is a route, 2nd highest weight Horse 9 Chasing Blue Has been trying stakes company but can't seem to run a plus race against sprinters, Been off 92 days. Here are my readouts and while I had Thoromation out and working |
08-28-2018, 01:56 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,162
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Now that's what I call a creative Racing Sec. Cards a stake race for Mass breds at a N.Y. track.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
08-28-2018, 05:42 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Replay
That worked out really well
Two of the top 3 high weights make the exacta. I bet $24 on the 5 and $9 on the 8 Not exactly how I wanted to dutch the race but I have trouble sometimes entering numbers. I get dizzy and mixed up. I am practicing by entering lines in old dos programs. Anyway, It was a very good day I thank you with all my heart for looking in. Bless you Bill |
08-28-2018, 05:48 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Relay
Here are the fractions and positions from the replay
The winner #5 sits 4th at the first call The winner #5 Make a big move on the turn and takes over first The 5 opens up in the stretch, meanwhile, the 8 moves up to second The race is in the bag as my two win bets are 1-2 The 5 wins and 8 places |
08-30-2018, 11:44 AM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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Quote:
FL has had a lot of SUF shippers over the years, so I guess it is to give these guys a shot at some races with the reduced racing in MASS. Clever sec. |
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08-30-2018, 12:33 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,162
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They card some unusual race up there especially toward the end of the meet. He does a pretty good job with what he has to work with.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
08-31-2018, 12:01 AM | #7 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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Finger Lakes #9 8/28/18 6F DS
So ... you did such a nice job with the analysis, (congrats on the win, BTW !!), I thought I'd run it through my dirt sprint profile and see what popped out. Since I didn't play it, I had to be honest and say that I could only forgive one of the two races for the 5. If I had played it, the second speed rating was within it's "normal" range, so I left it in.
So here's what some of my final screens looked like ... I won't explain them all, just a general comment. My RDSS screens looked very similar. The first shot below is my own set of stats I run on the speed ratings, somewhat similar to NewPace ... but without and early-late bias ... (that gets put in elsewhere). The second screen is a set of numbers that are weighted from exacta, trifecta and perfecta profiles. To be honest I should look at these more, ... but these worked nicely so I add them here. The last one is the last screen that's weighted from all kinds of junk I threw together, weighted and summed. Since it happened to include the perfecta in 4, I show it. I should have played this race ! Last edited by Dorianmode; 08-31-2018 at 12:12 AM. |
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