The Belmont

[Mitch44]

Will Justify win the Triple Crown?
I’m not seeing it at all. If the Preakness was 10 yards longer he would have been defeated. That many horses that close at the finish does not indicate any super horse to me.

I believe it comes down to three things: 1. The competition is catching up with him as the year goes on, 3 yr. olds can progress rapidly from one race to another and it doesn’t take months. 2. The foot problem began hurting him as the distance of the race got longer. 3. The schedule is catching up with him, he may have broken the Apollo Curse but the Apollo Curse doesn’t bode well for a Triple Crown winner, we only hear about it for the Derby but what about the Triple Crown? What we’re seeing could be anyone of those 3 things or all 3 of them.

I did a study of BC winner’s particularity 3 and up horses and spacing of their races coming up to their BC race and most came into the race fresh and ready for a peak effort. Horses with 4 races within 70 days did very poorly.

The Belmont will be Justified 4th race in 70 days going into it. He’ll be meeting fresh horse ready to ambush him, has to prove a new distance also. NY isn’t going to allow him anything easy during the running either. He has to train good to get the new longer distance and can’t afford any setbacks. I believe the schedule catches up with him in the Belmont and that’s where the Apollo Curse is really going to catch up with him. Hey if he wins it I’ll give him his just dues, but I’m not seeing it.

Pletcher has many horses and he’ll be challenged early and perhaps by more than one. Without knowing the entries I like Audible to win right now. And if you think the payoff was paltry for the Preakness, they’ll hammer Justify even lower for the Belmont. That Lucas horse has finally put it together, anyway we’ll have to see who actually gets in. Regardless I think Baffert runs the horse, he can’t resist another Triple Crown.

I believe he’ll fail for the Triple Crown bid and there should be some juicy overlays. Looking forward to it. While a TC winner would be good for the sport, for me the game is about making money and exploiting opportunities.


Mitch44