Is this drop suspicious?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

The one that looked somewhat suspicious is the 6 horse in that race. Who
claims a horse last out for 62500 then immediately drops them in a 40k claimer specially since the horse has won at the 0C62.5.


Paul link

hey Paul

Good point, the 6 took down a lot of peoples money as the second choice
Rudy Rodriquez gets a 6 year old gelding for $40,000

[sureshotlink]

Bill,

perhaps Mr. Rudy Rod with all his serums and potions can turn this 6 years old into Benjamin button??...


Good hearing from you BV.

Sorry I could not make yoga by the beach on Sunday.. Sounded amazing and spiritual!

Paul

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by Ryan.p.coli

was wondering why the trainer wouldn't go for a cheaper OC claiming race- like the one in May 2014.

I don't do much with trainer handicapping, but if anyone knows Saratoga, it is Chad Brown. He may have thought that the horse's last race made him look bad, and felt safe dropping him into a $40K open claimer to pick up some purse money and to qualify the horse for future $40K starter races.

[Ryan.p.coli]

#5 ended up scratching as yesterday Saratoga had a pretty bad meltdown scratching MTO horses BEFORE taking races off the Turf... just awful. I really wonder about the decision making among track executives sometimes. This business seems ripe with fantastic horsemen that often lack the proper business acumen to run a successful business.

Gentlemen- as always- this was very helpful. I am always really happy to see so many insightful responses to questions. A couple responses specifically:

Hoof- I downloaded that book last night. I have to read that book as well as the 2 form cycle books that Dave recommended (thanks again for that recommend Dave).

Bill- your response made a ton of sense. I didn't consider that. I am still trying to wrap my head around how much better the quality of horses/races are at Saratoga vs Belmont.

Paul- You're 100% correct- I saw that as well in the 6. It was 2AM when I handicapped that race.... Prob need to not handicap that late into the evening.

Mike B- This is also a good nugget. Agree with you Re: trainer handicapping, but I will keep that nugget about Chad Brown in my back pocket.

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by Ryan.p.coli

#5 ended up scratching as yesterday Saratoga had a pretty bad meltdown scratching MTO horses BEFORE taking races off the Turf... just awful. I really wonder about the decision making among track executives sometimes. This business seems ripe with fantastic horsemen that often lack the proper business acumen to run a successful business.

Gentlemen- as always- this was very helpful. I am always really happy to see so many insightful responses to questions. A couple responses specifically:

Hoof- I downloaded that book last night. I have to read that book as well as the 2 form cycle books that Dave recommended (thanks again for that recommend Dave).

Bill- your response made a ton of sense. I didn't consider that. I am still trying to wrap my head around how much better the quality of horses/races are at Saratoga vs Belmont.

Paul- You're 100% correct- I saw that as well in the 6. It was 2AM when I handicapped that race.... Prob need to not handicap that late into the evening.

Mike B- This is also a good nugget. Agree with you Re: trainer handicapping, but I will keep that nugget about Chad Brown in my back pocket.

" Not without red bull ryan"

Keep up the awesome Q&A

Best,

Paul

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by Ryan.p.coli

Mike B- This is also a good nugget. Agree with you Re: trainer handicapping, but I will keep that nugget about Chad Brown in my back pocket.

Chad Brown was born and raised in Saratoga Springs, and points his stable toward that meet every year. He is a top trainer anywhere he runs. At Saratoga, bet against him at your own risk.

[Ryan.p.coli]

What about these two: Race 3 on Wednesday at the SPA

I like the 7 in this race. Nobody really seems to want the lead. 7 has the fastest time in a 2 turn race. Saratoga purses are considerably larger vs the claiming price.... which makes the conditions harder to gauge.

[mowens33]

Ryan, looking at the RC rating of this race 105, the 6 has been running in better races ~ 112 RC and the 7 is ~ 95

Mike

[Bill V.]

I say no to both

# 6 Cease is a 7 year old gelding. Its better days show that it finishes in the money against better but it has not won since Dec. Is this horse worth risking
being claimed at 25 where it may find the winner share of a $50000 Purse ?



#7 Is a 5 year old. This one is returning to the same CL 25000 that it won at
but for non winners of 2 life. It followed that with a Alw 48 win. After that I see 3 misses against better company.
Again I see this as a horse unable to get to the winner circle and a drop for this purse seems like neither a plus or a negative.

GS
Bill

[mowens33]

Bill, how mush weight do you put on the RC rating of the race? In Ryan example the 6 has been running in much higher RC races (I agree that the drop doesn't look suspicious).
I guess my question is instead of using all the standard methods of class judgment can that be replaced by looking at the RC and (CR) in "RDSS2" of the race compared with the other horses in the race? Or do you use a combination of both?

thanks, Mike