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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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03-09-2013, 02:01 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Hiding favorites
I'm not a fan of the idea of "hiding" favorites, or any other "hiding", but if you are going to engage in that practice, at least hide a favorite that has little to no chance of winning, not just any favorite. Here's an example.
In the 8th race at PEN tonight, the favorite was a horse that was 2 for 45 lifetime. The horse had a good last race, finishing strongly to run 2nd. But let's be real about this. This horse has had "45" races and only managed to win "2" of them. I don't care how good this horse might look, I can't bet this horse with YOUR MONEY!!! So if you are going to "hide" favorites, hide favorites like these. At least these kind will rarely, if ever, come back to bite you in the a--. Here's the horse I'm talking about and the chart of the race.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
03-10-2013, 09:42 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Very good example FTL, especially with how the majority of 6F races are being won right now at Penn. Unless there was a scenario where the EP totally broke down it's difficult to envision this horse getting up.
Sadly I was fast asleep when this race took place and so couldn't take advantage! |
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