Perception, Chaos Theory and Numbers

[Because I Can Jim]

Be forewarned...
First. My posts tend to be longer. (Writing helps to clear my mind and clarify my thinking.)
Second. My thoughts are generally not mainstream. They tend to be "different". The general population will think I am off my rocker, think I am an idot, I am clueless, have no idea what I am talking about, etc... And that is fine with me. I don't profess to be "right." I also am wide open to constructive criticism (or as I like to think about it - an opportunity to expand my thinking), which translates into "comments are welcome and any any questions, any time."

So here goes....

In another post in reponse to NeedForSpeed, I was sharing a bit of my past and how I could not get my mind around "velocity" figures. What I was getting at was that my perception of a race disappeared when I was looking at a chart of the velcocity figures of 4 or 5 or 6 contenders in a race.

For example. Let's say that a horse named Jimmy runs a 45 second call beaten 3 lengths and finishes first in 110 at a 6f race.

For me, in my mind's eye (after watching many live races and video replays) I can see Jimmy at the second call behind by three lenghts when the leader ran it in 45 seconds and then gaining on and passing the leader(s) during the third fraction to win the race. Simple enough.

However, Knowing that the pace of the race at the second call was run in 58.66 feet per second (fps) and that Jimmy ran the same distance going only 58.00 fps, leaves me....? Slightly disoriented. Then to say that the pace of the race for the third fraction was run in 52.80 fps with Jimmy running it in 54.00 fps leaves me even more disoriented. Sure I can see that by the second call, Jimmy was behind because the pace of the race of 58.66 fps is greater than the 58.00 fps Jimmy ran and that Jimmy ran faster in the third fraction 54.00 vs. 52.80 fps; but, it takes a hell of a lot more thinking for me to bee able to understand the relationship between the difference of 0.66 fps to the second call and the 1.20 fps of the thrid fraction (let alone reading about them in something like the Follow Ups where I would have a tendency to just gloss over the numbers).

Again, this is just me and the way that my mind is wired.

Is one set of numbers (seconds) right and the other (fps) wrong? No. They are both right. It is the same idea just looked at from a different perspective, a different perception.

So what does this have to do with chaos theory?

I am familiar with fractals and chaos theory due to its use in other endeavors that have been involved with although I have not made a formal, in-depth study of it. It really is facinating and is on my agenda of thinks to look into just for the fun of it to broaden my look on life.

A study was done on measuring using chaos theory. Bear with me because I don't remember the exact numbers nor am I going to quote the source. This is not a paper where I am going to be critisized for plagiarism. This is just something that I read about, found interesting and am relating the idea to my way of looking at the races.

What happened was that a measurement was made along the coastline of Florida from one starting point to the ending point. I believe they were measuring in miles and came up with some number. (I believe the actual published number used is 1350 miles.) Then they measured the coastline again using a yardstick. What they found out was the the lenght of the coastline was actually longer even though they used the same starting and ending points. Similiarly, they measured with a 12 inch ruler and again the length was even longer than the measurement with the yardstick. It seems that every time they measured using a smaller increment, the length was even longer although they started at the same beginning and ending points.

What does this have to do with handicapping?

We have all heard about and read about how the chart callers can be "off" in their assessments of beaten lengths. I know they have an enormous more training and experience than I do, but, when I watch a race, I am hard pressed to "call" how far back a horse is in a pack lengths behind a leader.

Now, consider fractals and chaos theory. I believe they are valid. I also believe that they have made some old issues obsolete, which is a good thing.

However, it still produces "numbers." And what good are a set of numbers if you are not perceiving them correctly? (That I believe is why Dr. Sartin was fond of suggesting we make graphs - until we can internalize the concept - which very few of us do. How did I overcome this lack of perception when it came to velocity figures? By making graphs. )

The trick is to not take the numbers so literally. All our lives we have looked at numbers as sort of an absolute.

$1.25 is not $1.24 or $1.26.
2 apples is not 1 apple and 1 with a bite taken out of it.
The winning lottery number is 6-8-2 and not any other number.
The number 6 horse won, the 3 placed and the 9 showed and not any other in any spot.
You get the point.

We have to, in a way, desensitize ourselves from the value of a number.
A 45 and 2 from a past performace in today's race is "absolutely" faster than a 45 and 3? 1/5th pf a second?
A 55.10 fps from a past performance is "absolutely" faster than a 55.00 pfs from a past performance in today's race? 0.10 fps?

Don't get me wrong. Numbers are useful. Without them, we cannot make distinctions.

But, the numbers you use should allow your mind to easily perceive the reality of what what you are doing and not cloud up your thinking.

RDSS2 has many different kinds of numbers. They are all based upon the same thing - the past performances. They are the genesis. Velocity, energy, compunded ratings, etc... all come from the same genesis.

I believe that which ones you use are the ones your mind's eye can perceive with the greatest amount of ease. There is no right or wrong.

Jim
Any Questions. Any Time.

[lone speed]

Jim...

Hey, did you buy that 31 ounce "EXTRA LARGE" cup of Starbucks coffee this evening???

I am fascinated with numbers profoundly but I try to keep an even keel perspective. Nowadays, I focus on things like 401k growth rate, 10,000 mg of vitamin C, catching a 100 bagger on a stocks investment, and selecting the correct 5 numbers and 1 mega number on a billion dollar Powerball Jackpot; and of course, I am fascinated by a 36-24-36 beauty that is in front of me.....

We might have to put on blinkers, put on a tongue-tie, or if we need drastic measures, we might have to resort to "castration" to turn down a couple of decibels on the "numbers" anxieties...

I enjoyed your post....

Looking forward to future postings without the extra "java".

[Because I Can Jim]

Hey lone speed,

You were forewarned!!! LOL

Jim

[Because I Can Jim]

Funny thing is that I keep going and going and going and going...because there is no one to stop me and before you know it, I've written another book! LOL

Again, for anyone reading my posts... BE FOREWARNED!!!

LOL

[shoeless]

Funny thing is that I keep going and going and going and going...because there is no one to stop me


I wouldnt place a bet on that if I were you