How looking back on lost races can mess with our "intuition" - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 09-15-2006, 07:37 AM

Jim has been teaching me NOT to go back and review races that I lost.

Yes you read that right. Flies in the face of almost everything we are
" taught" when we learned about handicapping the horses.

Jim's feeling is that by looking back a sort of second guessing takes place that spills over when working a live race. "What if I did this" or "what if I had done that" are thoughts that will only HURT my matching horses when it comes time to work a race that hasn't run.

The Matchup relies heavily on FIRST IMPRESSIONS. The stuff that comes in our head right away. This is where second guessing and/or indecision becomes a killer.

I had the opportunity to work last Sunday's Delaware card with the "Hat" before the results were known. He would let me start the working of the race and after like 30 seconds he had his horse. I told him several times " are u serious?" . He said "yes Rich. What is the first horse that hits your mind? When you get him he becomes the horse to beat. Then just start throwing the other's out 1 at a time by matching. If no one can take him down he is the horse you bet. This doesn't take as long as you think IF you trust your INITIAL instincts about a race and the horses in it."

He NEVER second guesses himself. EVER. He works fast and acts IMMEDIATLEY on an inital impression of something.

I was talking with him last night on the phone and asked him if NOT looking back on races was something he could afford not to do cause he was so adept at what he does.

I told him while he is a 50-60 % one horse bettor I am 29-30% right now.He said he knows exactly where I am at and that NO I should NOT go back and review lost races. Keep looking forward is his constant message. Trust who I am and what I am doing.

Jim went 8 for 9 on the Delaware card betting one horse. He had like 4 or 5
cold pick 3's betting one horse in each leg. he had been telling me for 2 months to play Delaware. Do I listen? NOOOOO. I will now.

" Capetosto" - stubborn as a mule in Italian

Richie

RichieP · 09-15-2006, 01:37 PM

The card worked with Jim was the Tuesday card - 9/12/06. got my days confused.

Result was the same

Rich

shoeless · 09-15-2006, 07:05 PM

Richie,I think Jim gave you excellent advice,I dont know how many times on first instinct I will come up with a horse and then look back at the racing form and end up changing my mind.Jeff

RAMON201 · 09-17-2006, 07:26 PM

This is a great post. When I was doing the Triple Crown races I would do them fast and if the horse I was looking at couldnt cut it I scratched him , I didnt care what his name was or the media hype . Plain and simple I asked myself could he run in this race , facing todays competion. I think sometimes we all have tried to second guess ourselves and spend way to much time looking at a race.

09-15-2006, 07:37 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	How looking back on lost races can mess with our "intuition" Jim has been teaching me NOT to go back and review races that I lost. Yes you read that right. Flies in the face of almost everything we are " taught" when we learned about handicapping the horses. Jim's feeling is that by looking back a sort of second guessing takes place that spills over when working a live race. "What if I did this" or "what if I had done that" are thoughts that will only HURT my matching horses when it comes time to work a race that hasn't run. The Matchup relies heavily on FIRST IMPRESSIONS. The stuff that comes in our head right away. This is where second guessing and/or indecision becomes a killer. I had the opportunity to work last Sunday's Delaware card with the "Hat" before the results were known. He would let me start the working of the race and after like 30 seconds he had his horse. I told him several times " are u serious?" . He said "yes Rich. What is the first horse that hits your mind? When you get him he becomes the horse to beat. Then just start throwing the other's out 1 at a time by matching. If no one can take him down he is the horse you bet. This doesn't take as long as you think IF you trust your INITIAL instincts about a race and the horses in it." He NEVER second guesses himself. EVER. He works fast and acts IMMEDIATLEY on an inital impression of something. I was talking with him last night on the phone and asked him if NOT looking back on races was something he could afford not to do cause he was so adept at what he does. I told him while he is a 50-60 % one horse bettor I am 29-30% right now.He said he knows exactly where I am at and that NO I should NOT go back and review lost races. Keep looking forward is his constant message. Trust who I am and what I am doing. Jim went 8 for 9 on the Delaware card betting one horse. He had like 4 or 5 cold pick 3's betting one horse in each leg. he had been telling me for 2 months to play Delaware. Do I listen? NOOOOO. I will now. " Capetosto" - stubborn as a mule in Italian Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

09-15-2006, 01:37 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Correction The card worked with Jim was the Tuesday card - 9/12/06. got my days confused. Result was the same Rich __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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09-15-2006, 07:05 PM	#3
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Richie,I think Jim gave you excellent advice,I dont know how many times on first instinct I will come up with a horse and then look back at the racing form and end up changing my mind.Jeff

09-17-2006, 07:26 PM	#4
RAMON201 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 593	This is a great post. When I was doing the Triple Crown races I would do them fast and if the horse I was looking at couldnt cut it I scratched him , I didnt care what his name was or the media hype . Plain and simple I asked myself could he run in this race , facing todays competion. I think sometimes we all have tried to second guess ourselves and spend way to much time looking at a race.