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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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04-11-2016, 05:03 PM | #21 | |
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Thanks for your work-up of these races... |
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04-11-2016, 05:40 PM | #22 |
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Final fraction in conjunction of early pace expended
Many focus exclusively on the closing fraction when evaluating Derby contenders- stretching out to compete at the Derby distance of a mile and 1/4. But these type of analyses can be "frivolous at best" and deceiving in determining the intrinsic ability of horses getting the "extra furlong."
All horses can run a mile and 1/4 distance but each contender can sustained its own ability running at a certain individual early pace. A final 3/8 fraction of 37 and change is a parameter of gauge but only if it's evaluated with the early pace energy expended; does the final 3/8 fraction have significant value. It's the same method of pace evaluations that the Sartin Methodology is based on. Final times only has significance if one considers the match-up of the early pace; and not the ranking of the final time of races. Here are some examples of some of the top Derby winners of the past who did not run under 38.0 fractions for their final 3/8 fractions. They ran the final 3/8 in 38.0 BUT after setting fractions in 1:09 and change..... I have included the past performance for Captain Bodgit from the same year as Silver Charm in the 1997 Kentucky Derby to point out that Silver Charm had a final 3/8 fraction of 38.60 after a scorching 6F in 1:09 was just good enough to best Captain Bodgit who had a final 3/8 fraction in 35.80 but after a mediocre 112.40 for 6 furlongs. Silver Charm's last 3/8 fraction was almost 3 full seconds slower than Captain Bodgit but Silver Charm expended a 6F early pace fraction more than 3 seconds faster than Captain Bodgit. Maybe this match-up can serve as a bench mark for an imaginary inflection point for the parameters for early pace expenditures versus last 3/8 final fraction ability. (just my two cents) |
04-11-2016, 07:13 PM | #23 |
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04-11-2016, 07:34 PM | #24 |
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Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
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Derby Early Speedsters
Well, based on the graded races since last Breeders Cup here are the horses who might want the lead in the Derby. The light purple times are the fastest in the first three calls. Then there is some guy who wants tickets to the Derby with a fast sprinter that might go nuts for 6 furlongs on the lead. It the races goes anywhere near 112.00 on a fast track some of these might have a chance, otherwise, its no joy
Looking a little farther into it, find the horses that break in the top 2 or 3 consistenly to see how many might attempt the lead. BTW I do not have a points count so there are probably several here with no chance of starting. Enjoy |
04-11-2016, 07:45 PM | #25 |
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Re: Nyquist. don't forget that he has already proven that he can win off the pace, as attested to by his come from behind win in the BC Juvenile. He does not need to lead, which is a really good thing IMHO. I included his 7 furlong win in case someone wanted to project it to 8.5 or 9 furlongs, so if he chose to go to the lead, he would leave crispy critters in his wake at least until the top of the stretch, but then look out for the bobbers and weavers coming from the parking lot and possibly a true garrison finish!
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04-11-2016, 08:39 PM | #26 | |||
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Ted wrote: Quote:
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04-11-2016, 08:44 PM | #27 |
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Points total of top 20 Derby contenders
Here are the Kentucky Derby Points Total as of 4/09/2016
Horses circled in red color are those who might move up in points against Cupid in the Arkansas Derby. P.S. Bill, you might want to add Cupid to the list of early pace horses. |
04-12-2016, 01:51 AM | #28 |
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Cupid is already on the list, see line 3.
Thanks for the current point totals. I will find a place for them on the sheet. |
04-12-2016, 10:34 AM | #29 | |
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04-15-2016, 10:10 AM | #30 |
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Great link to Derby "info" galore!!!
A link to a great Derby contribution by Bill Finley.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com.../tdn160414.pdf Great link to an early look of the top 12 Derby contenders with past performances and some performance numbers by Equineline and Thorograph. Kudos to Bill Finley and Winstar..... P.s. Bill Lyster, another site for horse racing news.... |
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