Tips from Experienced RDSS Users

[glass_oni0n]

Hi everybody, I'm still fairly new to the RDSS/Sartin community and I'm looking for a little guidance. I started using the software back in October after learning pace handicapping from the Brohamer book, and I have found a lot of success and a lot of failure.

I've mostly been trying to learn as I go, and while I've run into some great wins, it's been a bit of a struggle to really nail this. I brought a $300 TwinSpires balance into over 1,800...and then the slide happened. I bottomed out to about as low as $900, before getting myself back up a bit and I've been hovering in the 1000-1200 range for the past few weeks. I bring up funds only as a means of framing my see-saw like success/failure pattern. I'll hit a few winners, maybe even catch a good lean with some of my 4-factor models, but before I know it I've lost 20 bets in a row largely doing the same things I was when I was winning.

I feel like I'm not developing positive, repeatable habits in my handicapping or my betting, and I feel like that's one of RDSS/Sartin's chief functions. I'm painfully aware that this is a "me," problem, I'm the type of person who tries to build a desk without reading the instructions, believing I'm somehow insufficient if I can't figure it out on my own. But the full spectrum of the reading material on both RDSS and Sartin is daunting, even for someone whose "job," is learning how to handicap horses.

Forgive my length, but I'm looking to canvas some kind-hearted veterans of RDSS for some guidance. How did you become successful using RDSS? What forms of modeling (4-factor, BL/BL factors, etc) do you find to be absolutely essential? What, if anything, have you found may "throw off," RDSS's ability to be accurate?

I wish I had more to offer in terms of my own personal insights, hopefully with the proper paying of dues I can get to that level, but as a good-natured attempt at some quid pro quo, I'll share a couple of the things I've found capping Aqueduct and Oaklawn:

Outside of learning I may need to find another day job trying to master Aqueduct, I've found that the top 3 horses in CSR are extremely likely candidates as place horses in 6.5f sprints at Aqueduct. It's harder to pin down the winner, but this has been useful for structuring exactas.

Oaklawn has been incredibly random at all distances except for routes greater than a mile. Those races have been very formful to the 4-factor method, for those still using, of course. Apologies as these aren't RDSS official stats at this very moment, but PL seems to be immensely important. All winners AND place horses I've modeled have been top 3 in PL. Given the large fields at Oaklawn, it's worth researching that bit of information for what can be some very effective exactas. Hope this helps somebody find a winner and thanks for reading! I hope to get more involved on here going forward

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by glass_oni0n

Hi everybody, I'm still fairly new to the RDSS/Sartin community and I'm looking for a little guidance. I started using the software back in October after learning pace handicapping from the Brohamer book, and I have found a lot of success and a lot of failure.

I've mostly been trying to learn as I go, and while I've run into some great wins, it's been a bit of a struggle to really nail this. I brought a $300 TwinSpires balance into over 1,800...and then the slide happened. I bottomed out to about as low as $900, before getting myself back up a bit and I've been hovering in the 1000-1200 range for the past few weeks. I bring up funds only as a means of framing my see-saw like success/failure pattern. I'll hit a few winners, maybe even catch a good lean with some of my 4-factor models, but before I know it I've lost 20 bets in a row largely doing the same things I was when I was winning.

I feel like I'm not developing positive, repeatable habits in my handicapping or my betting, and I feel like that's one of RDSS/Sartin's chief functions. I'm painfully aware that this is a "me," problem, I'm the type of person who tries to build a desk without reading the instructions, believing I'm somehow insufficient if I can't figure it out on my own. But the full spectrum of the reading material on both RDSS and Sartin is daunting, even for someone whose "job," is learning how to handicap horses.

Forgive my length, but I'm looking to canvas some kind-hearted veterans of RDSS for some guidance. How did you become successful using RDSS? What forms of modeling (4-factor, BL/BL factors, etc) do you find to be absolutely essential? What, if anything, have you found may "throw off," RDSS's ability to be accurate?

I wish I had more to offer in terms of my own personal insights, hopefully with the proper paying of dues I can get to that level, but as a good-natured attempt at some quid pro quo, I'll share a couple of the things I've found capping Aqueduct and Oaklawn:

Outside of learning I may need to find another day job trying to master Aqueduct, I've found that the top 3 horses in CSR are extremely likely candidates as place horses in 6.5f sprints at Aqueduct. It's harder to pin down the winner, but this has been useful for structuring exactas.

Oaklawn has been incredibly random at all distances except for routes greater than a mile. Those races have been very formful to the 4-factor method, for those still using, of course. Apologies as these aren't RDSS official stats at this very moment, but PL seems to be immensely important. All winners AND place horses I've modeled have been top 3 in PL. Given the large fields at Oaklawn, it's worth researching that bit of information for what can be some very effective exactas. Hope this helps somebody find a winner and thanks for reading! I hope to get more involved on here going forward

When you lost 20 bets in a row, did most of the winners of those events make sense to you afterwards?

If you haven't done so, I would dig into what those winners looked like in your PPs that day.
Especially if they're paying at better than 7/1 odds, I'd look at the connections and see if they have been known to finish well at big odds lately,
with runners who didn't look the part before the race; as one example.

Mike

[darmar]

Welcome to the community glass
My first suggestion for you is to view the Webinars that we did in 2021. There's a lot of great information
that will help you get started on the right track
Great Skill and keep posting your progress and questions
Darryl (Darmar)

[darmar]

Sorry I forgot to tell you this videos are in the RDSS 2.2 section

[Lt1]

I would suggest modeling the BL/BL prime factors[on surface &dist] plus vdc and %med range which can big in downgrading horses. Put more weight in the factor[s] where the winner finished in the top 2. Usually you will have 2 factors that stick out.
Tim

[glass_oni0n]

Originally Posted by MJS6916

When you lost 20 bets in a row, did most of the winners of those events make sense to you afterwards?

If you haven't done so, I would dig into what those winners looked like in your PPs that day.
Especially if they're paying at better than 7/1 odds, I'd look at the connections and see if they have been known to finish well at big odds lately,
with runners who didn't look the part before the race; as one example.

Mike

Thanks Mike! I think that's the frustrating aspect of it, almost always these horses do make a lot of sense it's simply that last horse I decided against, or that last combination I decided against. One of my biggest aims right now is to find a proper amount of coverage, especially for smaller Aqueduct fields where say five of the six horses may all be relatively strong in factors.

[glass_oni0n]

Originally Posted by darmar

Welcome to the community glass
My first suggestion for you is to view the Webinars that we did in 2021. There's a lot of great information
that will help you get started on the right track
Great Skill and keep posting your progress and questions
Darryl (Darmar)

Thanks for the encouragement! The webinars I've seen I find very helpful and I'll be sure to report back, hopefully with some good angles for the community!

[glass_oni0n]

Originally Posted by Lt1

I would suggest modeling the BL/BL prime factors[on surface &dist] plus vdc and %med range which can big in downgrading horses. Put more weight in the factor[s] where the winner finished in the top 2. Usually you will have 2 factors that stick out.
Tim

Thank you Tim! I learned a lot from your webinar and I've largely adopted your method of reading the brisnet form as a supplement to RDSS. I've been looking for a smarter way to model the BL/BL screen so this is a big help.

[Lt1]

You are welcome GO. Here is what my models look like. This is my actual model for PARX 6F. The numbers under the factors are the number of times the winner was in the top2.
ESPRS EPR LPR CPR TT HID FW FX VDC MIN 3F %MED RANGE
EP 251 331 234 255 254 307 304 325 49.0 67.4-70.0
As you can see although the the WINING ESPRS IS EP the winners rank in the top 2 LPR the most. The 2 factors 2 key are FW & VDC with FX a very close 3rd. So when I'm making my final picks I'm looking for contenders with EP ESPR that rank in the top 3 LPR, FW & VDC with a min 3f of 49.0 . When it comes to % med I look at all the horses' running to see the % med. If a horse has 3 or more races with %med below 67.4 or above 70.0 I mark it either too late or too early & downgrade it. If it has 2 such %s I mark it as @late or @early so I may decide to downgrade later. Hope this helps.
Tim

[Old Arkie Gal]

Re Oakland. I live in Hot Springs, AR.- I have found that early in the season Oakland is difficult to play. You have so many shippers with a variety of trainers, but as the season goes on you will cash more good paying tickets. Another thing there is no turf racing just dirt. Distances are consistently run
at 6F, 8F, and 1 1/16, and 5 1/5 F are run less frequently as are longer distances. It also tends to be Early and EP. Be patient early in the season you will be rewarded later.
Pat