Step by step from TI thread

[Bill V.]

Rich asked me to show this race step by step up in
shoeless Jeffs Trainer Intent thread

I posted but Jeff asked if I could include screen hots because my post was confusing I will add 4 screens er post It will take me a few post to do it all
Lets get started

First off I only entered lines for horse 2, 3 7 9 10 and 11
when I did the race Sunday morning I used line 2 for horse 10
This was probably a mistake. Line 4 is better but I have to go by
what I did Sunday AM

Here is a screen shot of my entered horses



Here is horse 10's pacelines



My final contenders in the race after hides are
9 Line 3
3 line 1
11 line 3
7 line 1 - this is the horse and pace line I set the projected pace from 22.7 45.0
2 line 2
10 line 2

Here is a split screenshot on top is with the 10 in and under is my final BLBL
after I hide down to five horses



and I have them listed as they are on my software's ranking screen

9
3
11
7
2

continued in next post

[Bill V.]

Now that I have 5 horses on BLBL I will do the Binder method

This Screen shot shows a split BLBL first above is the top 2 The 9 horse
and the 3 horse Then below are the 3rd 4th and 5th ranked horse
11. 7 and 2

Here is the screen shot


Using My binder method I consider first who is better ?
My top Pick our my 2nd choice
Looking at my software final readouts the 9 is the top pick
why did I not bet the 9 ?
When I was picking my lines I thought the 7 was the better Early horse
than the 9 , but I knew that there was going to be a early pace battle between the 9 and 7
The 9 comes from some track AsD ? Its the worst APV and almost worst Class rating horse in the race
I know its going to be in a battle with the 7 and I see its has a poor
hidden energy rank. Its not going to go wire to wire out ...

This screen is showing horse 9 and 7 and the poor readouts they have in hidden energy



Next in rank 2 is the 3 horse No doubt in my mind the 3 is my pick
and first bet

Continued in next post

[Bill V.]

So The 3 is my first bet

Now I look at the 3rd 4th and 5th ranked horse

The horse ranked 3rd is the # 11. I saw it as a negative dropping horse
Its last two races were against much better but it did nothing
The pace line race was much better $25.000 it won the race and was claimed
but It was laid off for 43 days Maybe it blew a gasket in the $25,000 race ?
As I posted in my post Sunday morning This is the key horse If its healthy
It is a good second bet ?

Here is horse 11


I checked the 4th ranked horse Its the #7 Ok for me early need the lead
horses or horses with better Early rankings than late rankings in tier 4
don't win very often. When I was picking lines I thought the 7 would be ranked better than the 9 but its not. For me all the 7 will do is battle the 9
and now my look is for late runners

Here is an example of a 4th ranked horse with better Ep than LP rankings


In Tier 5 is the #2

Like I said in my first post Sunday
Its the # 3 APV horse and has a good class rating
Its the # 1 FX horse

Here are the APV and Class ratings for all the contenders


My choice between the 3rd 4th and 5th ranked horses is the 11 or the 2

I went with the 2 because of the good FX and the doubt about the 11

My win bets were the 2 and 3
Usually when I have a horse like the 11 I will box it with my
win bets in an exacta But I figured the 9 and 7 would be in there
and decided just to win bet

Just to repeat I probably should have used line 4 for the 10

I got lucky that I went with the 2 instead of the 11

I bet two horse every race because things like this happen to me
all the time

Thanks
Bill

[Jimbo282]

Thank You Bill for taking the time to show us.

Jimmy

[Turbulator]

Excellent explanation and nice screen shots, Bill. I have a couple of questions for you.

1. You said several times you should have taken line 4 for the 10 instead of line 2, but you had a good reason for taking line 2--line 10 was his peak performance, so in retrospect, why do you feel it was a mistake?

2. Had you used line 4 instead of line 2 how would the 10 horse have ranked?

3. You mentioned hidden energy several times. I'm not quite sure I know what hidden energy really is. Do you always take into account hidden energy? Is it more for sprints than routes? What is hidden energy exactly?

Thanks,

Steve

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Turbulator

Excellent explanation and nice screen shots, Bill. I have a couple of questions for you.

1. You said several times you should have taken line 4 for the 10 instead of line 2, but you had a good reason for taking line 2--line 10 was his peak performance, so in retrospect, why do you feel it was a mistake?

2. Had you used line 4 instead of line 2 how would the 10 horse have ranked?

3. You mentioned hidden energy several times. I'm not quite sure I know what hidden energy really is. Do you always take into account hidden energy? Is it more for sprints than routes? What is hidden energy exactly?

Thanks,
Steve

Hi Steve

This screen shot shows the 10 being ranked with both the 2nd and 4th line
used



I use the Hidden Energy readout all the time for all races
If you can follow my reason, It might not be clear
I run the race in my head looking at the primary readouts
on BLBL I start with the # 1 EP horse I look at its rank in LP then Turn time The Hidden Energy
here is a description of HE from the Follow Up



Steve When I did the race on Sunday I was in the zone and I felt the 2nd line was bette
The thing about RDSS is once you hide a horse you lose the pace line
When I was asked to do the step by step I had to go back and put a line in for the ten horse
Maybe it was the fact that at this point i knew the 10 placed yet I had hid it
its not in my top 5 ! I just wanted to see what would have happened if I had use line 4
I know I was in the zone Sunday so your right saying using line 2 was a mistake probably
is not what I mean
GS
Bill

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

when I did the race Sunday morning I used line 2 for horse 10
This was probably a mistake. Line 4 is better but I have to go by
what I did Sunday AM

Others might call that "mistake" by another name Bill:
Intuition

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I got lucky that I went with the 2 instead of the 11
Thanks
Bill

NOT luck bud.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uvr3dmptvg

Thanks for sharing!

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thanks, Bill. I have one last question about hidden energy the "second and third" fractions.

Let's say it's a 6 furlong race. Would the second and third fractions be the final two quarters of the race, or would they include the stretch call?

[Ted Craven]

Steve,

In a 6f race, the Hidden Energy is (roughly) the average of the middle 2 furlongs and the final 2 furlongs (2nd and 3rd fractions). In routes, it is still the 2nd and 3rd fractions averaged, but that portion of a route is between 4f and 6f (2nd fraction), and the 6f and finish point (3rd fraction). The stretch call time/velocity is not considered (at least in RDSS/Spec/Val).

Ted