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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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11-07-2017, 04:53 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Handling fast mid-Atlantic races
My friend Keith and I were debating this the other day during Breeders’ Cup handicapping. Horses from places like Parx and Laurel (Monmouth and Delaware and Oaklawn in his experiences too) were coming into the Cup races with “fast” lines. I noticed this in various programs and sheets I’ve used over the years. However, in Keith’s experience, those “fast” runners almost never win consistently against upper echelon runners.
I guess the question is, how do you handle these types of runners? Do you take the adjusted data at face value? Or do you view the data with skepticism? I’m familiar with being wary of extreme DTV’s, but that is part of the battle. |
11-07-2017, 07:21 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,162
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Hi Tim. I usually check to see if the line the program picks is a lifetime best for the horse especially for older horses. If so I don't use it. Also even if the horses speed rating gets it tiered high remember there are other factors to look at such as distance or surface limitations. A model also helps. One other thing I've found to hold up over the years is the Docs missive that in G1 races accept as contenders only horses that have won or placed in a G1 or G2 race. Now G1 races for 2 and 3 yr olds usually have too many questions to deal with so I tend to avoid them.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
11-07-2017, 09:56 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I don't worry about these type scenarios. Most rating today are interchangeable, a 98 speed rating is the same weather earned at Parx or SA or Bel.
There could be many reasons for this observation, one may be class differences between tracks. Another is the horse just doesn't like the track or doesn't get over the surface well. BC examples are Lady Eli who didn't adapt to Del Mar surface and her legs got cut up and ran last I believe. Another probably Arrogate and Drefong. Highland Reel last two looked bad but if you were I and studied the PP the horse prefers firm turf surfaces and back on Lasix was a plus he needed . Ran good and close for 3rd. If you think tracks don't make a difference look at the record of NY shippers into SA for BC races . Atrocious! The answer to your questions could be many things. Even trainers such as Pletcher who is only 9 for 131 starts in the BC races while 20 to 25% otherwise. The competition is stiff at this level.And finally the form cycle is probably the biggest with the horse running one too many races or over trained and left its race on the training track in the morning. For each race you win you'll probably lose two due to the form factor. The two horse bet greatly helps here. When your going to put a good size bet into a race you better analyze every horse in the race and give even more attention to the top 3 or 4. Than again some BC races contain many unknown factors verses other races. I thought Bold D Oro the two year was vulnerable. His line and race were better that all others but the question on him for me was can he prove consistency and run two big races back to back? And with his low odds I looked elsewhere even through I did not have the winner my decision was correct. Not knowing or using all the information at hand is most likely the reasons for your observations. Mitch44 |
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