"Wagercapping" and surfing the "net" for VALUE based tracks - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 12-08-2009, 11:17 AM

You are a "Wagercapper" which means you are a 2 horse VALUE win bettor.

As Bill V so often posts FOLLOW DOC'S DIRECTIONS in this regard also. He had Aline scan the results to find tracks where favs do not dominate.

With the "Wood" closed currently THIS one shown here is tops for lowest % of winning favs and highest avg win odds.

And lo and behold it is also a POLYTRACK
A surface I.M.H.O absolutely suited to RDSS and its included deceleration/total energy/race segmented formulas.

JimG · 12-08-2009, 01:07 PM

Sharp post Richie. Had not looked at the "At a Glances" recently. Did you notice that most of the other tracks are 35-40% winning favorites? We seem to be inching up from the old 33% avg.

Turfway does look appealing.

Jim

PS...Why do they call it "Turf"way when there is no turf course? Same is true of Oak"lawn".

lsosa54 · 12-08-2009, 04:12 PM

As opposed to some of the moaning I've heard about poly on some other boards, I feel it offers some of the best opportunities around for the capper. I'm pretty content playing Socal only for the most part. As long as you handicap every race and wait for the opportunities and have an idea of what's winning at what distance, you are in good shape. Sometimes, esp. in routes, that SP screen (I'm talking EXDC/Thoromation but I'm sure RDSS is similar) goes on a roll with some bombs.

I used to think Doc was full of baloney when he used to talk about solid opportunities in short fields, but I've become a believer enough to at least cap them all. My most consistent opportunities continue to be in fields of 8+ with the ML favorite at 3-1 or in rare ocassions, 7-2 or even 4-1.

RichieP · 12-08-2009, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimg

ps...why do they call it "turf"way when there is no turf course? Same is true of oak"lawn".

lmao!!!!!

RichieP · 12-09-2009, 01:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimG

Did you notice that most of the other tracks are 35-40% winning favorites? We seem to be inching up from the old 33% avg.

Hi Jim
A friend who keeps such records has the % of winning favs ALL tracks at either 35.7 or 35.9% (I am not in front of the data but am positive it is one of these)

That is today's current reality.

I believe Alydar posted this a while back to blindly wagercap tracks like Calder or Tdn etc etc would probably be committing quick suicide to your bankroll.

A spot player can work many tracks and pick and choose his/her spots to get plays.

A wagercapper like Barb C for ex focusing on 1 track MUST be aware of current realities and choose tracks where the favs do not completely dominate on a regular basis. My opinion anyway.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11xAB...aynext_from=PL

12-08-2009, 11:17 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	"Wagercapping" and surfing the "net" for VALUE based tracks You are a "Wagercapper" which means you are a 2 horse VALUE win bettor. As Bill V so often posts FOLLOW DOC'S DIRECTIONS in this regard also. He had Aline scan the results to find tracks where favs do not dominate. With the "Wood" closed currently THIS one shown here is tops for lowest % of winning favs and highest avg win odds. And lo and behold it is also a POLYTRACK A surface I.M.H.O absolutely suited to RDSS and its included deceleration/total energy/race segmented formulas. Attached Images

12-08-2009, 01:07 PM	#2
JimG Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 992	Sharp post Richie. Had not looked at the "At a Glances" recently. Did you notice that most of the other tracks are 35-40% winning favorites? We seem to be inching up from the old 33% avg. Turfway does look appealing. Jim PS...Why do they call it "Turf"way when there is no turf course? Same is true of Oak"lawn".

12-08-2009, 04:12 PM	#3
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	As opposed to some of the moaning I've heard about poly on some other boards, I feel it offers some of the best opportunities around for the capper. I'm pretty content playing Socal only for the most part. As long as you handicap every race and wait for the opportunities and have an idea of what's winning at what distance, you are in good shape. Sometimes, esp. in routes, that SP screen (I'm talking EXDC/Thoromation but I'm sure RDSS is similar) goes on a roll with some bombs. I used to think Doc was full of baloney when he used to talk about solid opportunities in short fields, but I've become a believer enough to at least cap them all. My most consistent opportunities continue to be in fields of 8+ with the ML favorite at 3-1 or in rare ocassions, 7-2 or even 4-1.