pacelines...bad day

[wwilkens]

Issue 73
Page 15
"....representative pacelines as selected according to the directions I've offered ad nauseam."- Dr. Sartin

I'm I too new?
Have I missed all these directions in my reading of the Issues?
Have I searched this forum using the wrong phrases?

I spent today playing, thankfully $1 bets and after blinding, had the winners (when they weren't the favorites, which seemed all day at both tracks) end up coming 4th and 5th in my BL/BL.
AND 2-3 long shot winners coming from my 6th (last contender).

Any help from you veterans?

Thanks
Bill

[Bill V.]

keep practicing .. Read Ted's recommended follow ups
When you get to issues 84-88 Doc gives some step by step pace line guidelines

Paceline are the backbone of everything in the methodology
I have been using the methodology since 1997 and I still have
a hard time now and then. Sometimes it comes down to making a decision
Should I use the line with the highest speed rating (86)
but is it too far back ? Is it at a comparable distance surface and competition level?
Was it aided by a very high or low daily track variant ?

An example is like so (SR=Speed Rating )

Line 1 SR 77 =28 days ago
Line 2 SR 75 48 days ago
Line 3 SR 86 = 125 days ago
Line 4 SR 77 = 150 days ago
Line 5 SR 75 = 171 days ago

Now just looking at the speed ratings line 3 is the highest but is it representative of this horses ability?
What about the other horses in the race ? If all the other contenders have speed ratings in the 76-80 range
If you use line 3 this horse will rate first and usually by a big amount.
But really isn't it more likely that the horse will run about a 77 today ?
This is why it takes practice. Look at the way the horse runs in its plus races
and try to think about its best race of the last 3 or 4 if needed that best represents how the horse runs well.
This will keep the winners rated higher on your readouts, then you can use the final odds to bet the best value



Bill

[Mark]

Read and study the Hat Check Blog. Print out a copy of Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach and study it and practice what it tells you to do.
You have to identify the horse that will take the lead out of the gate and will set the pace all the others will be chasing. When you can predict the 1st and 2nd calls of a race, you will know what pacelines to use. Identify each horses running style by finding the position they win or run very close from at the first call. Fast horses win races unless they are forced to run too fast too early. It only took me 40 years to figure that out, Thank you Mr Bradshaw and Richie P.

[wwilkens]

Thank you

[dlivery]

The best way to find solid contenders is to first find the non contenders.

Then only the possible winners remain this must be consistant approach.

Doc wrote putting "in" non contenders they change your read outs and also could cause you to leave them in.