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Old 09-25-2012, 03:19 PM   #21
Ted Craven
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Cody,

A pleasure.

An addendum, on reflection and FWIW, you may ask why - if my top 3 BL horses were 7-2-3 and the the 7 and 3 Morning Line in the neighbourhood of 3-1 while the #2 was ML 5-1 - did I not bet the #7 and #2 instead of the #7 and #3 which I actually bet.

Consult the PPs above, to see that the #2 is a recent Maiden graduate after many tries and the only line which makes it look ANY good is its Maiden Win (line 2, which I used), its best-ever rating. Normally I would like to rate recent Maidens from what they have done against other Winners and perhaps I should have here, given the result. Its last race against Claiming winners was a credible effort though against a slow pace, not an effort which would rate it well against the other potential Contenders.

When I came to decide which 2 of the Top 3 BL ranked horses would I bet, this recent Maiden status weighed in my decision making and I judged that between the 2 and 3, the numbers for the 3 were more founded in races against today's caliber of competition, and thus more reliable. I recall I left the #2 in the Primary Contender section, despite the afore-mentioned weaknesses, because it possessed the MOST LATE E/L rating of the Contenders and may be the one to collect against any tiring early pace. Perhaps an inconsistency on my part, in this instance.

FWIW.

Ted
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Old 09-26-2012, 12:45 PM   #22
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Wednesday Sept 26

BEL Race 1
...$50 Win 7, 2

Win.

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Old 09-26-2012, 02:56 PM   #23
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BEL Race 5
$50 Win 1-3
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Old 09-26-2012, 03:10 PM   #24
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BEL Race 5
$50 Win 1-3
Loss.

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Old 09-26-2012, 04:02 PM   #25
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BEL 7
$50 Win 3
$25 WP 6
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Old 09-26-2012, 04:16 PM   #26
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BEL 8
$50 Win 2, 8
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Old 09-26-2012, 04:24 PM   #27
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BEL 7
$50 Win 3
$25 WP 6
Loss.

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Views: 188
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Old 09-26-2012, 04:47 PM   #28
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BEL 8
$50 Win 2, 8
Win.

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Old 09-26-2012, 05:02 PM   #29
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BEL Race 9

$25 WP 3
$50 Win 12
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Old 09-26-2012, 05:33 PM   #30
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BEL Race 9

$25 WP 3
$50 Win 12
Loss.

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