New Pace performance request

[gl45]

BJ,
If you are interested here is the crazy race being debated using Bris SR.
The top reads:

E1= #4
E2= #8
L1= #6
L2= #7
gets the winner, Ex. and Tri.

If I drop the Swing horse (#8) down to the Late side then:

E1= #4
E2= #9
L1= #6
L2= #8
gets the winner, Ex., Tri, and super.

I use the High ratings on the Late side. RDSS uses the Low ratings for the Late side as per Dave's rule.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have made some improvements to NewPace. After the pars go out in March I will work on a small (but powerful) update to NP. You guys will find it very worthwhile.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I have made some improvements to NewPace. After the pars go out in March I will work on a small (but powerful) update to NP. You guys will find it very worthwhile.

Nice Dave...

just hope there's no Wayne Brady's with this update
( Monty Hall's successor )





Mike

like to have something that stays within the boundaries of NP

[Dave Schwartz]

Huh?

[mikesal57]

just a joke Dave....

I would like the up date to just be within New Pace and not using any outside strategies

[Dave Schwartz]

Considering the hostility I am receiving here, I guess I missed the joke.

[mikesal57]

after the improvements ...

we can start giving you some praises...


or put the bullet proof vest back on



mike

[Dave Schwartz]

You know what?

I think I will pass.

[Ted Craven]

FWIW ...

RDSS2 Beta 2 includes most of the initial NewPace Update's improvements (real soon folks, I promise ), so no one is using those in RDSS software yet (though I'm sure many make the manual observations or use Dave's update spreadsheets).

There are about 100 RDSS2 testers, 65 registered NewPace users, most of whom (not all) are using it in RDSS2. A few folks here have either torn NP apart and use it in their own alternate ways (e.g. DorianMode, rmath, gl45) or use it straight-up and report their out of the box results (e.g. MikeSal). Many more than these have reported to me privately that they either use it straight-up or as one of a set of non-corelated factors to get a consensus, or do other bizarre things with it. I would hazard a guess that virtually no one is consistently profiting from an out-of-the box usage. Though, most seem not too troubled by that, since RDSS does so well without NP.

But I would also guess that the vast majority would NOT want me to remove NewPace from RDSS2, so of course I won't. In the march of ideas, a hundred enquiring minds trumps a few squeaky wheels, and often unexpected improvements come from left-field.

If it's not working for you, set it aside. If you're intrigued by others' tinkering with it, you tinker with it too. Consider NP an interesting idea, if only even some of the time and perhaps even only for non-contender identification, etc.

I look forward to Dave's improvements (if they don't require HSH to implement effectively), as well as improvements from others.

cheers,

Ted

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by gl45

BJ,
Tampa from 12-28-2011 to yesterday races.
NP contenders at 4-1 or better win only in 243 races.
If $2 bet was made for each NP horse at 4-1 or better, we would have made 613 bets for a total of $1,260.00 and win 54 races (4%) $1,037.50 for a loss of $228.50 with an average of $19.21 per race.

Winners
E1 = 12 ......$172.00 avg....$14.33
E2 = 12 ......$195.50 avg....$16.29
L1 = 11 ......$159.80 avg....$14.53
L2 = 13 ......$319.20 avg....$24.55
Tie= 6 .....$191.00 avg....$31.83

Ex. year to date +$2.40

Hi Pino,

Thanks very much for posting this TAM summary. I make the ROI from this to be .823 - pretty typical of what NP does in this odds range (remember Mike's provisional summary of a group of NP 4-1 races was a loss of 10% - basically it loses the take. This isn't bad, but obviously it's not in the black.
(BTW, I think the hit-rate of 54/613 is closer to 9% than 4%, unless I missed something). As Bill Lyster's survey demonstrated, NP's hit-rate begins to evaporate pretty quickly as the odds rise. Again, more evidence of how tough it is to find profitable NP plays, and how grateful we should be to you for putting in the work to find some.

Cheers,

B Jennet