Pace line question Parx

[Bill V.]

Here is a tricky one

Line 1 is a 87 speed rating, its also a plus pace line.

But the running pattern from the Early - Late is very different
than its other + plus pace lines.

I see that its EPR is much lower than its normal range. I see that its LP is much higher than its normal range.

I see a 4 week break happened after the last line.
The horse always tries and except for 1 race , runs plus races
Is the slow break but still good effort a reason for giving the horse a rest?
Will it run more like line 2 or 3 today ?
I picked line 2

[Lt1]

I went with line 3 but either l2 or 3 makes him fit my win model but the odds to low pass

[Bill V.]

I agree Tim

Line 1 is atypical for this horse and also my win model

Thanks
Bill

[Mark]

Bill,
What do you project for today's pace? What kind of fractions can this horse run against and still finish?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Mark

Bill,
What do you project for today's pace? What kind of fractions can this horse run against and still finish?

Hi Mark

I have the 4 Sawnee as the Fulcrum with a 48 112.3 pace

[Appy]

:lol:
FTL would throw cold water on me if I didn't point out that for Crafty Concord line 2 is for a Starter HANDICAP!
Line 1 best fits today's conditions, but is a very slow paced race, especially for this horse who is trailing those first 3 fractions 4.4/5.3/3.1 lengths. Only the finish is his time, right?

(Sorry I'm so late to the party)

[Segwin]

Hi Bil et al:

Crafty Concorde wants to be E or EP whenever possible. The horse is in form coming from what was a pretty hard fought battle to win. He didn't break well being 9 (but only 4.4 behind). I'd watch the replay of his last race if I could. I'd also study what the other horses he's going up against are like. Are they his equal/better/worse as far as speed rating goes?

If you notice his speed ratings, going from bottom up, he has two triple digits, one double digit, two triples, one double, so on and he now is on his first triple digit - can he make it two like he has done consistently in the past? I'm not looking at adjusted speed ratings here.

I'd go third line back (but be really tempted to stay with the first). The only reason for third line back is it splits the difference on his past two adjusted speed ratings.

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Appy

:lol:
FTL would throw cold water on me if I didn't point out that for Crafty Concord line 2 is for a Starter HANDICAP!

Ha! Very observant.

Can someone hand me a dry towel.

[Appy]

"third line back is it splits the difference on his past two adjusted speed ratings."
I thought that way too Segs, except it's from Monmouth rather than Parx.

Jeez. I JUST got home. Now it's feeding time.

[Segwin]

Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't he dropped in class 4 out of his last 5 races (but yet his speed ratings are still good)