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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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11-18-2023, 08:26 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 135
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Quick Pick 3 - Contender Selection
Good morning;
I posted a result yesterday regarding a pick 3 play and Ted asked me to show how I did it. I like to play horizontal wagers, doubles, pick 3, and pick 4's. I usually like to pick a couple of different tracks to play steady so I can develop a model and hone in on what's important during contender selection. I decided this winter that I am going to play Fairgrounds as one of my main tracks, so I'm just starting to build a model. Fairgrounds is an hour behind so when I can get home from work, I can play the late pick 3 or 4 depending on the number of races. I decided to play the last pick 3 yesterday when I got home so here is how I did my contender selection. I use most of the screens and tab through each screen - here is how I do it. The first thing I do is to look at pace lines that are selected. I usually use the ones the program picks although I make changes if it is a router in a sprint race,etc. The race below is the last race in the sequence. I use the energy tab to start: I eliminate any horse on this screen that doesn't have a colored number here as based on my experience, they usually don't win. Here is what I end up with: Next I go to the PMTR/TRP tab and eliminate any horse that isn't within 10 points of the top rating: Here is what's left: [IMG] As you can see, using these 2 eliminations I'm down to 4 contenders. Keep in mind that the more contentious a race is, there may be a lot more contenders here early on. Continued in the next post. |
11-18-2023, 08:57 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 135
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The next screen is the segments screen. I usually look at this to see if how it looks. One of the things I do if I have a track model is to check the computed beaten lengths at the finish. Based on past information in some of my models and tracks is that this can be a very strong indicator for the win if you are in the top 4. Since I don't have a model for the Fairgrounds yet to determine if this a viable statement, I didn't use it here.
I go to the next tab which is primary factors and I look for any horses that don't have any colored highlights and eliminate those horses. That wasn't the case with this race so I didn't have any eliminations. Next I will go to BL/BL screen and see who are the top 4 contenders and make a note of that. The last screen is RX; I will look at this to see which horses from BL/BL have strong corollary support. Doing all that I have the following horses from each race as my contenders: As you can see, I've eliminated the horses that haven't had a start on turf as they usually don't win even though there numbers look very strong and I have 3 contenders. As you can see, I have 3 contenders in the first two legs and four in the last. Depending on how many contenders I have left in any leg, I'll go to the POH screens and see if I can make any eliminations. I may also look at the horses past performances to see if any are declining in form or not. I usually end up with 3 or 4 horses at the end. In this case I eliminated the 12. I got lucky in the last leg as when I did the wager, I see I put in the 3 horse instead of the 13. I modify this method some when I have a model as I can then usually have some other elimination factors available. Good luck to everyone! |
11-18-2023, 10:01 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Thanks for posting your approach Bill.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
11-18-2023, 05:23 PM | #4 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 481
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Huge thank you Bill
Bill,
You learn something new every single day, and your approach is much appreciated, and fantastic. Don't forget to cash!! Jon |
11-18-2023, 05:53 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
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thanks bill............
nash |
11-18-2023, 06:22 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 135
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Thanks guys, I appreciate the kind words. Yesterdays hit was nice but check this one out........I used the same methodology I described above and just hit this a few minutes ago:
I'm alive for the last leg with the 5,9,13 with payoffs of $686, $501, and $3200 which would make a very nice day. 5 mtp....... |
11-18-2023, 06:43 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 135
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The 9 wins for another nice hit. I was watching the race and my heart starting pounding when the 13 was making the turn in 3rd, he was moving with the 9 but got pinched off when the 9 made his move.
[IMG][/IMG] |
11-18-2023, 07:29 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Outstanding Job Bill.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
11-18-2023, 08:09 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada
Posts: 3,179
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Real great job on this one Bill l!!! When you are willing to put in the work the REWARDS will follow.
Congratulations Darryl |
11-19-2023, 08:45 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Great job Mr. Bill thanks also giving a detailed approach on how
you do it. Very nice of you to share. Jeff |
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