Possible Error In RDSS Adjusted Times

[Ted Craven]

Bill H,

There is NO speed rating showing in RDSS which relates specifically to the current track (e.g. CT). ALL the numbers, except the raw ones on the Original screen, relate to the matchup of horses running against each other today, and are equalized, normalized and adjusted to do just that. My understanding is that this has been Dr Sartin's approach since about the days of Energy! in the late 1980s, though perhaps not the specific approach of Purdy or Brohamer.

I'm pretty sure you might mean something different by 'projected pace' than RDSS uses the term, but I would NOT use the Adjusted numbers to project a pace. In RDSS we have a Projected Pace tool based on the raw original data which you can read about in the Release Notes. I take the likely Early horses (Early's and possibly Early Pressers's) and use the Projected Pace tool to select the 1st call and 2nd call times likely to be set by an E Running Style horse. This colour-codes the call times for all horses and helps you to see which other Earlies are close to the proposed pace and which cannot keep up (and thus eliminate them for Win); also how the Other-than-Early Running Style horses have been able to close against such a pace. You can edit the initially selected pace if the pace-setter will not have to run as fast as its chosen paceline, and again the call times of all horses and in the Analysis section re colour-coded to show time proximity to that pace.

I'm not sure how that relates to what you do with a projected pace, but I use it in every race to evaluate the pressure an E or EP will face, along with confirmation by other energy based readouts (e.g. CBL on Segments screen).

If you want more info on RDSS' Projected Pace tool (after the Release Notes), perhaps you could start a discussion in an RDSS Forum (so not to detract from the Synergism focus in this forum). Also, in the Hat Check/Matchup area, you will find numerous discussions and screenshots from Richie showing how he evaluates Running Styles using the RDSS Projected Pace tool.

I would not use those numbers you circled above, from the RDSS Adjusted Screen, as a guide for what times will be run at CT (or any track) today. In my view, the Adjusted screen numbers are there to provide a continuity of flow showing how raw info (the Original screen) gets adjusted by your chosen adjustment settings, then becomes a source of input running times to derive velocity, then turns into all the various individual compounded factors, then line scores and odds line. In other words, a part of the progression from least adjusted (raw, Original Screen) to most adjusted (BL/BL Screen including V/DC).

FWIW, in my RDSS layout, I don't bother showing the Adjusted screen - I never consult it. I use Original, then the various compound factor readout screens (mostly BL/BL, E/L Diff, and Segments). Of course, others (like Bill V and many others) do use it and some mostly ignore the Original screen. To each their own

I hope that helps.

yours,

Ted

[partsnut]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Bill H,

There is NO speed rating showing in RDSS which relates specifically to the current track (e.g. CT). ALL the numbers, except the raw ones on the Original screen, relate to the matchup of horses running against each other today, and are equalized, normalized and adjusted to do just that. My understanding is that this has been Dr Sartin's approach since about the days of Energy! in the late 1980s, though perhaps not the specific approach of Purdy or Brohamer.

I'm pretty sure you might mean something different by 'projected pace' than RDSS uses the term, but I would NOT use the Adjusted numbers to project a pace. In RDSS we have a Projected Pace tool based on the raw original data which you can read about in the Release Notes. I take the likely Early horses (Early's and possibly Early Pressers's) and use the Projected Pace tool to select the 1st call and 2nd call times likely to be set by an E Running Style horse. This colour-codes the call times for all horses and helps you to see which other Earlies are close to the proposed pace and which cannot keep up (and thus eliminate them for Win); also how the Other-than-Early Running Style horses have been able to close against such a pace. You can edit the initially selected pace if the pace-setter will not have to run as fast as its chosen paceline, and again the call times of all horses and in the Analysis section re colour-coded to show time proximity to that pace.

I'm not sure how that relates to what you do with a projected pace, but I use it in every race to evaluate the pressure an E or EP will face, along with confirmation by other energy based readouts (e.g. CBL on Segments screen).

If you want more info on RDSS' Projected Pace tool (after the Release Notes), perhaps you could start a discussion in an RDSS Forum (so not to detract from the Synergism focus in this forum). Also, in the Hat Check/Matchup area, you will find numerous discussions and screenshots from Richie showing how he evaluates Running Styles using the RDSS Projected Pace tool.

I would not use those numbers you circled above, from the RDSS Adjusted Screen, as a guide for what times will be run at CT (or any track) today. In my view, the Adjusted screen numbers are there to provide a continuity of flow showing how raw info (the Original screen) gets adjusted by your chosen adjustment settings, then becomes a source of input running times to derive velocity, then turns into all the various individual compounded factors, then line scores and odds line. In other words, a part of the progression from least adjusted (raw, Original Screen) to most adjusted (BL/BL Screen including V/DC).

FWIW, in my RDSS layout, I don't bother showing the Adjusted screen - I never consult it. I use Original, then the various compound factor readout screens (mostly BL/BL, E/L Diff, and Segments). Of course, others (like Bill V and many others) do use it and some mostly ignore the Original screen. To each their own

I hope that helps.

yours,

Ted

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Ted,
Thanks for the response. The original screen seems to be the possible export screen that I would use for export and conversion. Your information was very helpful and has clarified a number of issues for me.

I also am pleased to see that you have made progess on the setup screen
for synergism 2 and a testing release is forthcoming. I am confident that your efforts will yield excellent results.

[shoeless]

Parts,

Hope you and Bill V will be included in testing process,I think it would make
for a good barometer to see how good it works.

Jeff

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Parts,

Hope you and Bill V will be included in testing process,I think it would make
for a good barometer to see how good it works.

Jeff

My thoughts exactly

Ted

[shoeless]

I dont know how active he is lately but you should have Richie test it, he
taught Pino and I how to use it.

[partsnut]

Ted Craven:

Please remember that in RDSS, the Adjusted times, AND all the velocities and subsequent factors which derive from them ARE NOT BEING RUN AT THE HOST TRACK (e.g. CT here) - THEY ARE BEING RUN AT A NORMALIZED, HYPOTHETICAL TRACK (call it Sartin Downs). CT (and each different distance at CT) has an inter-track differential from Sartin Downs, DMR has a different inter-track differential from Sartin Downs, so does Hastings and Evangeline and Boise, etc. We could adjust all the different tracks and distances to TODAY'S track instead of to the HYPOTHETICAL norm track - but we don't. Same difference, except when people look at an Adjusted Call times and say horses don't typically run that fast (or that slow, whichever) at that track. True - they don't, but they're not running (in the program readouts) at that track.

ALL the numbers, except the raw ones on the Original screen, relate to the matchup of horses running against each other today, and are equalized, normalized and adjusted to do just that. My understanding is that this has been Dr Sartin's approach since about the days of Energy! in the late 1980s, though perhaps not the specific approach of Purdy or Brohamer.

In my view, the Adjusted screen numbers are there to provide a continuity of flow showing how raw info (the Original screen) gets adjusted by your chosen adjustment settings, then becomes a source of input running times to derive velocity, then turns into all the various individual compounded factors, then line scores and odds line. In other words, a part of the progression from least adjusted (raw, Original Screen) to most adjusted (BL/BL Screen including V/DC).

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From what it seems your saying is : The adjustments are used primarily in the process of equalizing the various RDSS screens.
However, the equalization screen by itself should not be used.
I'm assuming that the equalization factor is controlled by however the configuration setting is set up by the individual user.
If I so desired, I could completely eliminate the equalization factor in the configuration depending on how I set it up?
If that be the case, what would be the recommended configuration to do so? Would I have the option to completely eliminate the equalization screen?

[Bill V.]

Hello Bill H.

I found this for you.

I hope this adds to you interest in what the Sartin Methodology programs
are doing with the raw data from Trackmaster/Equibase
This is from follow up # 85

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...ents#post68876



I heard from Ted and he really is close to
getting the RDSS export ready very soon

[Bill V.]

I believe just from hand entering lines for the last few days
into Syn 2 that the adjusted numbers are going to do fine
overall The trick will be to use comparable pacelines
same distance track and surface and competition level
No matter how much you adjust the adjustment
all Sartin programs are 100% driven by the users pace lines

[partsnut]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I believe just from hand entering lines for the last few days
into Syn 2 that the adjusted numbers are going to do fine
overall The trick will be to use comparable pacelines
same distance track and surface and competition level
No matter how much you adjust the adjustment
all Sartin programs are 100% driven by the users pace lines

Attachment 29051

Bill, Thanks for the input. I guess I will have to see what works best through trial and error. When I find what I feel is the best set-up, I will advise you and the group.
As of now, I will be looking at the original data. I do not know enough about the adjusted data but from what I can see it seems to be spurious in some instances.
Synergism as well has an auto adjust that has worked for me.
It is a self compensating program.
Conversion of the original data will be my first test.

I would still need to have some answers to my original questions.
Possibly Ted can address them.

I have heard from Ted as well and Synergism is very close.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by partsnut

Ted Craven:

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From what it seems your saying is : The adjustments are used primarily in the process of equalizing the various RDSS screens.
However, the equalization screen by itself should not be used.
I'm assuming that the equalization factor is controlled by however the configuration setting is set up by the individual user.
If I so desired, I could completely eliminate the equalization factor in the configuration depending on how I set it up?
If that be the case, what would be the recommended configuration to do so? Would I have the option to completely eliminate the equalization screen?

Bill, the adjustment of running times (and sometimes beaten lengths in the case of projecting/extracting to/from sprints/routes) by variants and distance and surface equalizations is shown on the Adjusted screen - analogous to the way Setup Times and other adjustments are provided in Synergism itself (the resulting adjusted times are simply not shown - only the velocities, compound factors and rankings).

Whether you use the adjusted running times for anything in your own handicapping is up to you - Doc Sartin made extensive use of these adjusted times, including them for reference in many race workups. Except for when her (or contributing members) showed original DRF or Bris PPs, he was often uninterested in what the raw data looked like. The key to decision making lay almost entirely in the adjusted, compounded readouts.

As I wrote earlier - I never look at the running times in that Adjusted Screen. I consult the raw Original times and the various markups to help me analyse Form, then ALL the other velocity and compound screens.

Adjustments are governed by settings on the Configuration screen. You can tinker with them to your hearts content, switching off the Inter-track variant, the Daily Track Variant, the range of DTV included, etc. Note: you cannot disable the distance or surface equalization adjustments.

However: I do not recommend making any changes to those settings at all.

If you want to use pure Synergism adjustments (Setup Times), then simply export Original (unadjusted) data from RDSS.

Ted