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#1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Matchers Forum Help Race
This is from yesterday, Janaury 25. It's the ninth race at Gulfstream Park. Like today the weather was gorgeous. The track was fast and firm. The place was packed.
Here are the past performaces using The Daily Racing Form. For the setup I used the most common distance among my contenders --1 1/16 -- even though the race was run at a mile around two turns. #6 and #8 were scratched. 111 3/5 was the fastest second call. It was shared by #2 and #7. For the final time I used the fastest finish -- #7's 141 2/5. For track record I used the actual track record of 138.17 (rounded down to 138), not the three year best record. Note, I did not use any speed ratings or pars. There were no adjustments for track class or distance, other than the internal energy variants. I've marked "NC" for Non-Contender. The pacelines I used are underlined. PHP Code:
Analysis: #2 has a big FW 55.00 advantage #2 has a big EP 55.41 advantage #9 is the best late with SP and LP rank of #1, he's also tops in TT, FX and WX. But look at that F1 deficiency: 53.66. On the other hand his F3 is gigantic: 57.29. I would only consider a horse like this on the grass. Today is a turf race so he's okay. As far as I'm concerned these are the only two horses worth considering. Now for the odds? #2 was a healthy price and #9 was gigantic. Nice indeed. Especially considering the sophisticated paceline procedure -- last race for all. LOL |
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#2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Nice hit David and thank you for taking the time to lay it all out for us here from A-Z
![]() Florida weather agreeing with you eh?
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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#3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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#4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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best
Hi David
Congrats on the race Plus I wanted to thank you Your post is a well presented example of what you did. It really looks like the format right out of the early follow ups "Problem Races articles " Your post was helpful and I see you put in a lot of work with the PP's and your readouts Thank You Bill |
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