Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Today's Posts

General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-23-2017, 01:18 PM   #41
DaveEdwards
Grade 1
 
DaveEdwards's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
Thanks for the clarification Bill.

Perhaps I need a little more work on my understanding of the claiming ladders.
I do own, but have never read both James Quinn's class books. Both have been recommended in the manuals/follow ups. More homework required I think.

Thanks again Bill.
DaveEdwards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2017, 01:26 PM   #42
DaveEdwards
Grade 1
 
DaveEdwards's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
Result of the Monmouth Race

Monmouth R1 result.
Attached Images
 
DaveEdwards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2017, 01:33 PM   #43
DaveEdwards
Grade 1
 
DaveEdwards's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
Result of the Woodbine Race

Woodbine R1
Attached Images
 
DaveEdwards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2017, 08:36 PM   #44
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Claiming Condition Level

From Dave Edwards:
This horse won it's last race convincingly and is now entered again today at the same class level. Perhaps there could be a bit of hair splitting with today's NW2 6M, but we'll see.

From Bill V:
From what I see this horse is not running at the same class
The last line is an open 5 claimed. Today's race looks like a restricted 5 claimer for horse that have not one 2 races in a time period .
These races can be tough .

From Dave Edwards:
Thanks for the clarification Bill.

Perhaps I need a little more work on my understanding of the claiming ladders.

Here is some help.

A $5,000 “OPEN” claiming race is the highest class level there is for a $5,000 claiming race.
ALL other $5,000 claiming races WITH a condition are of a lower level.

Is it possible to manufacture a scenario where a $5,000 OPEN claiming race has the worst horses known to man and a $5,000 claiming race with a non winners of 2 races in 6 months condition has very competitive horses? Damned right it is, but that is NOT the question here nor is it the lesson to be learned.

Here is the hierarchy of the most common “conditions” in the order of class level

NW26M = None winners of 2 race in 6 months
NW16M = None winners of a race in 6 months
NW2Y = None winners of 2 races in a year
NW1Y = None winners of a race in a year
NW4L = Non winners of 4 races lifetime
NW3L = Non winners of 3 races lifetime
NW2L = Non winners of 2 races lifetime
MAIDENS

Naturally “State Bred” races at each level of condition are of lesser class

These same condition levels apply to other claiming prices as well and are not limited to just $5,000 claiming races.

Hope this helps!
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2017, 10:15 PM   #45
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Thank You FTL

I had the chance to look this over more closely
The tip off is the 70 Race class and today is a 75
I knew something was wrong.

The horse is moving up in class today, RDSS is not showing the full conditions
of the line 1 race, It is NOT a 5000 open claimer
It is a CL 5000 N1-6m or Non-winners of 3 life
Today is the next step up
a CL5000 N2-6m OR non-winners of 4 Life


Here is the chart from the line 1 race


Name:  Chart.jpg
Views: 333
Size:  124.7 KB

and today's condition

Name:  Listen.JPG
Views: 324
Size:  116.9 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-24-2017, 12:37 AM   #46
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Good job, Bill. That makes a lot more sense.

As it turns out this was probably a good time for a "refresher" anyway.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-24-2017, 03:04 AM   #47
DaveEdwards
Grade 1
 
DaveEdwards's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
Thank You

Gentlemen,
Thank you so much for the explanations on this issue. I'm so grateful that you both took the time to help.
Funny, I was rather embarrassed to watch the Monmouth horse win after my posting, but every cloud has a silver lining. I've come out of this far stronger now and hopefully others will learn from this lesson too.

As it happens, this horse was comfortably the best in RDSS prior to my assumption that this was a sidestep that shouldn't have happened.

Quick check, the racing class & ladder.

Thanks again.
DaveEdwards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-24-2017, 06:49 AM   #48
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Neg Drop

Dave Edwards, Yes Ultraflame failed and was claimed

Let's return to Vanessa again, Because your original question was / Is this a negative dropper. I guess If we are going to really master this question we need accurate data, Tom Brohamer used the DRF and charts and his own incredible memory. Plus back when He was making his tapes there were not so many restrictions in each claiming level.

We have established that Vanessa is not dropping in class. from the actual charts of line 1

FTL
Let's suppose line 1 was, in fact, a open 5000 claimer
In the context of Dave Edwards question, is this a negative dropper, to go from an open 5000 to a CL5000 N2-6M. Yes it is a drop on the class ladder
But in this case why not take the eligibility?

My reasoning is, The horse was claimed down at GP (line 6 ) for $6250 .

It failed two times, So a drop to $5000 looks okay.
In its first 2 attempts at the 5000 level, it runs plus races
It belongs at this level It finally wins in line 1
If line 1 was an open 5 claimer and they were willing to
risk it to be claimed for $5000 in the last 3 races,
Why not keep it at the $5000 level and take the non-winner of 2 races in 6 months eligibility condition?

I look at it this way.This is not a negative dropper The horse has not shown
any ability to win over the $5000 limit

Thanks
Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-24-2017, 09:54 PM   #49
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
negative class drops

Long before the internet, simulcasting and on line betting, I had the opportunity to speak with Tom Brohamer. One of the things he mentioned was that he wished he could bet east coast racing. When I asked him “why”, his answer was enlightening. On the west coast, where he was based, he said racing was “pure vanilla”, especially in claiming races and he was tired of it. On the other hand, east coast racing presented opportunities not present on the west coast. Those opportunities were the in the form of the various race conditions available in east coast racing. In other words, he was of the opinion that handicappers on the east coast probably did not have a handle on the various condition races and therefore there would be opportunities for those who did understand them. This was a point well taken!

I am not saying he thought east coast handicappers were stupid and I certainly don’t want to put words in his mouth, so there is something everyone should understand, especially younger handicappers. Although I don’t recall the exact year, there was a time when the racing form did not show previous race conditions, among the many other things that were not published at the time. Claiming races showed the claiming price of the race and that was it. Of course, there were those like myself, that either kept what was called a “golden notebook” or just saved old racing forms. In doing so you could look back at the racing form and get the conditions from there.

The point to all this is, learning about negative class drops was based on claiming price only. Race conditions do not indicate a negative class drop. In those situations, such as the hypothetical Bill V presented, it would just indicate a smart move. A taking advantage of the rules, so to speak. It was a good assessment by Bill V.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2017, 04:50 PM   #50
DaveEdwards
Grade 1
 
DaveEdwards's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
Line 3 Conditions

I looked up the conditions for this race, courtesy of Equib, please see the attached.

Interestingly it looks very similar in description to the line 1 conditions, but the Racing Class has them at 70 & 71 respectively. I wonder why this is so. Not a big difference, but different none the less.

Bill, as you pointed out in your first posting, the RC was the quick clue here, it was up to 75 from 70 and so it clearly wasn't the easy throw out I had initially thought.
I guess it comes down to the NW3 Lifetime (line 1) move to NW4 Lifetime(current race) making it essentially a harder race and therefore a class rise even though the claiming value and prize money were exactly the same. A lesson in thoroughly reading the conditions if ever there was one.

Now the rosey hint to my cheeks has subsided I'm definitely adding that quick check to my work up, thanks. It's not something I've ever paid attention to if I'm being be honest, but there are clearly classes within classes as I've now learned.
A very interesting post by FLT thanks about Tom's thoughts on the east coast class structure.
Plenty of food for thought there. I'm quite sure that the negative class drop situation is open to much further investigation to the curious mind.

On a very rare foray for me to PA I read a post where someone was talking about Tom's negative class drop being no longer valid, or words to that effect.
I think it's still very much alive & kicking.

Thanks both, I've learned a lot this week. Where else would you find this sort of support? Awesome.
Attached Images
 
DaveEdwards is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Brohamer Decision Model CaptDon100 Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 26 06-26-2015 06:41 PM
TIPS from Tom Brohamer For The Lead Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 4 08-23-2013 07:19 AM
MNR 09-02-12 R(1) Using RDSS, The SYN Converter And A Touch Of Brohamer partsnut Synergism 0 09-04-2012 12:09 PM
Sartin Seminar Tapes - Need Research Help Ted Craven General Discussion 16 05-05-2012 03:36 AM
Pace N Cap Library lsosa54 General Discussion 31 04-18-2009 12:11 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:45 AM.