Research & Observations for AQU & OP - Pace and Cap

glass_oni0n · 02-08-2024, 10:19 PM

I've been doing some modeling of both the 4F method and BL/BL screen for Aqueduct and Oaklawn Park and thought I'd share some of my findings!

I use standard configurations, 50% DTV +/-15 and I generally pick the the best percept total for my paceline within the confines of the day's race (I try to use routes for routes, sprints for sprints, dirt for dirt, just logical stuff). The races I model are essentially a carbon copy of Brohamer's guidelines from Modern Pace Handicapping.

All model races are between 6f-9.5f. I don't model 2YOs and I'm waiting until April/May to model 3YOs. My low-level/high-level races are the same at both tracks, I don't use anything below 20k claiming and I don't use graded stakes races. I do model allowance races below 20k, I don't model MC races. I will model MSW races that meet all other qualifications; despite how it feels as though we always lose to them, firster's don't win that often, and when they do there's usually a trend to note.

At AQU I keep 1M routes and two turn routes separate and OP I separate 8 and 8.5f races. I always keep separate models for 6/6.5/7f sprints. It's not Sartin Handicapping, it's not really handicapping at all, but I'm a devout follower of Steve Crist's strategies from "Exotic Betting," so I decided it was wise to start modeling place horses, as well. I note the top three in all factors for win and place. I'm curious if experienced players feel as though 3 is too many, or perhaps not enough to identify place horses, but I've found I generally don't get enough consensus with top 2, and I'm left with too many options when accepting top 4.

Lastly, a brief word about 4F modeling, which I realize is a bit of a fringe RDSS method at the present time, I still believe the public factors are valuable to get for yourself. I set up a spreadsheet and track it that way. It would be great to have a similar stat within RDSS, either the Rx4 or however it gets resolved, but for now I would still say it's worth the trip to get the #s, and I think my numbers continue to prove this much.

Aqueduct
1-Turn Dirt Routes (64 W Races/19 P)
4FW: 70% of winners have been top 3 in CSR, PL and BPP
4FP: No factor has gotten over 59%
BL/BLW: CPR, FW, FX, TS and E all above 60%, highest CPR 65%
BL/BLP: Only factor above 50% is TT at 54%
Keep your exacta $$ in your pockets at 1M

2-Turn Dirt Routes (30 W Races/10 P)
4FW: 77% have all 4 factors with at least one 3; 70% PL top 3
4FP: 80% PL top 3; 70% top 3 in VDC and BPP
BL/BLW: No factor above 60%; CPR, FW, PF3, TSF3, TS all 57%
BL/BLP: 74% top 3 TT; 70% top 3 TS

6f Sprints (63 W Races/24 P)
4FW: 78% have all 4F with at least one 3; 75% top 3 VDC & PL
4FP: 75% PL top 3; 71% 4F with at least one 3
BL/BLW: HID and TSF3 73%; DCL, PF3, N 71%
BL/BLP: TT top 3 63%

6.5f Sprints (29 W Races/11 P)
4FW: 72% have all 4F with at least one 3
4FP: 82% CSR top 3
BL/BLW: Only factors more than 50% indicative are EPR & FW 54%
BL/BLP: TT 67% top 3; HID 63% top 3

7f Sprints (36 W Races/15 P)
4FW: 72% 4F w/at least one 3 & 72% top 3 PL
4FP: 93% (14/15) VDC top 3; 80% 4F w/at least one 3; 73% PL top 3
BL/BLW: CPR & FX 70%
BL/BLP: TS 70%
7f exactas are one of my biggest angles at AQU currently

Oaklawn
I haven't accumulated a sufficient enough sample size for 1M routes

>1M Routes (15 Races)
4FW: 80% 4F with at least one 3; CSR & PL 73%
4FP: 67% PL & BPP; 60% CSR
BL/BLW: 87% TOT; 73% TSF3
BL/BLP: TS & E 60%

6f Sprints (28 Races)
4FW: 71% CSR Top 3
4FP: No factor above 50%
BL/BLW: E fractal 71%
BL/BLP: No factor above 60%; EPR & TT 57%

I would love to have more time to post my picks on the forum, but I write my AQU card up each morning for my Substack website and unfortunately don't find much extra time on race days. If anyone is interested in following my picks, feel free to PM me, I don't want to outwardly self-promote, but it's free to follow along if you're interested.

dadams6357 · 02-08-2024, 11:58 PM

Glass
I was wondering do you break your models into various classes...eg. clm 20k
clm 30k etc. Or do you lump sum anything over 20k.
Do you track you ROI.
In regards to class I tried using trackmaster for there class rank...but when they rank
a grade 1 the same as a mc 6000 I had to give that up.
Well it looks like you have been doing a great job a modeling.
Thanks for the information.
And good handicapping.
Don

02-08-2024, 10:19 PM	#1
glass_oni0n AlwNW1X Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 10	Research & Observations for AQU & OP I've been doing some modeling of both the 4F method and BL/BL screen for Aqueduct and Oaklawn Park and thought I'd share some of my findings! I use standard configurations, 50% DTV +/-15 and I generally pick the the best percept total for my paceline within the confines of the day's race (I try to use routes for routes, sprints for sprints, dirt for dirt, just logical stuff). The races I model are essentially a carbon copy of Brohamer's guidelines from Modern Pace Handicapping. All model races are between 6f-9.5f. I don't model 2YOs and I'm waiting until April/May to model 3YOs. My low-level/high-level races are the same at both tracks, I don't use anything below 20k claiming and I don't use graded stakes races. I do model allowance races below 20k, I don't model MC races. I will model MSW races that meet all other qualifications; despite how it feels as though we always lose to them, firster's don't win that often, and when they do there's usually a trend to note. At AQU I keep 1M routes and two turn routes separate and OP I separate 8 and 8.5f races. I always keep separate models for 6/6.5/7f sprints. It's not Sartin Handicapping, it's not really handicapping at all, but I'm a devout follower of Steve Crist's strategies from "Exotic Betting," so I decided it was wise to start modeling place horses, as well. I note the top three in all factors for win and place. I'm curious if experienced players feel as though 3 is too many, or perhaps not enough to identify place horses, but I've found I generally don't get enough consensus with top 2, and I'm left with too many options when accepting top 4. Lastly, a brief word about 4F modeling, which I realize is a bit of a fringe RDSS method at the present time, I still believe the public factors are valuable to get for yourself. I set up a spreadsheet and track it that way. It would be great to have a similar stat within RDSS, either the Rx4 or however it gets resolved, but for now I would still say it's worth the trip to get the #s, and I think my numbers continue to prove this much. Aqueduct 1-Turn Dirt Routes (64 W Races/19 P) 4FW: 70% of winners have been top 3 in CSR, PL and BPP 4FP: No factor has gotten over 59% BL/BLW: CPR, FW, FX, TS and E all above 60%, highest CPR 65% BL/BLP: Only factor above 50% is TT at 54% Keep your exacta $$ in your pockets at 1M 2-Turn Dirt Routes (30 W Races/10 P) 4FW: 77% have all 4 factors with at least one 3; 70% PL top 3 4FP: 80% PL top 3; 70% top 3 in VDC and BPP BL/BLW: No factor above 60%; CPR, FW, PF3, TSF3, TS all 57% BL/BLP: 74% top 3 TT; 70% top 3 TS 6f Sprints (63 W Races/24 P) 4FW: 78% have all 4F with at least one 3; 75% top 3 VDC & PL 4FP: 75% PL top 3; 71% 4F with at least one 3 BL/BLW: HID and TSF3 73%; DCL, PF3, N 71% BL/BLP: TT top 3 63% 6.5f Sprints (29 W Races/11 P) 4FW: 72% have all 4F with at least one 3 4FP: 82% CSR top 3 BL/BLW: Only factors more than 50% indicative are EPR & FW 54% BL/BLP: TT 67% top 3; HID 63% top 3 7f Sprints (36 W Races/15 P) 4FW: 72% 4F w/at least one 3 & 72% top 3 PL 4FP: 93% (14/15) VDC top 3; 80% 4F w/at least one 3; 73% PL top 3 BL/BLW: CPR & FX 70% BL/BLP: TS 70% 7f exactas are one of my biggest angles at AQU currently Oaklawn I haven't accumulated a sufficient enough sample size for 1M routes >1M Routes (15 Races) 4FW: 80% 4F with at least one 3; CSR & PL 73% 4FP: 67% PL & BPP; 60% CSR BL/BLW: 87% TOT; 73% TSF3 BL/BLP: TS & E 60% 6f Sprints (28 Races) 4FW: 71% CSR Top 3 4FP: No factor above 50% BL/BLW: E fractal 71% BL/BLP: No factor above 60%; EPR & TT 57% I would love to have more time to post my picks on the forum, but I write my AQU card up each morning for my Substack website and unfortunately don't find much extra time on race days. If anyone is interested in following my picks, feel free to PM me, I don't want to outwardly self-promote, but it's free to follow along if you're interested.

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02-08-2024, 11:58 PM	#2
dadams6357 Grade 2 Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Downers Grove, Il Posts: 78	Glass I was wondering do you break your models into various classes...eg. clm 20k clm 30k etc. Or do you lump sum anything over 20k. Do you track you ROI. In regards to class I tried using trackmaster for there class rank...but when they rank a grade 1 the same as a mc 6000 I had to give that up. Well it looks like you have been doing a great job a modeling. Thanks for the information. And good handicapping. Don