UAE Derby

[tleusin]

I am not a fan of horses shipping to the Kentucky Derby from the UAE Derby as I think the turn around is to quick for acclimation. That being said Mendelssohn's victory was visually astounding, his turn of foot on the turn and through the breathtaking. According to an announcer new track record.


http://www.dubairacingclub.com/race/...o/trakus-chart

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8QIwrw_63c

[Mitch44]

That distance was 1 3/16, just 1/1/16 of the Derby distance.


I use to do comparative handicapping as a spot play. Consider these time facts on the same surface and todays date.


Mendelssjohn: 25.09 48.46 111.87 136.,31 155.185 Wire to wire 1 3/16


Thunder Snow in the 10 million race 4 & up:


25.73 50.43 113.89 137,21 201.185 Wire to wire.1 1/4


Mind Your Biscuitts: 24.62 47.04 110.124 Won off the pace. 6F
POR 23.52 45.51 110.124



Notes: 1. W,P & S was taken by 3 US horses with last year BC winner finishing 3rd
2. Purse 2 Million
3. These horses in the sprint run about 1.08 80 or so at some place like SA & 1.09's at other tracks.
4. Based on that I would say this track was slow as compared to Meydan
5. at least 6 lengths for the time based on a norm of 109.2/5 and 9 lengths slow based on a norm of 108.4/5.
6. This really puts Mendelsson time in perspective based on the sprint time and the 4 & up time by Thunder Snow who beat several US horses, notably West Coast.
7. It could be one race too many and may never win again from an tremendous effort, plus can he recover from the Dubai trip in time for the Ky. Derby?


Mitch44

[tom]

He certainly dropped a brick into the Derby soup bowl this year!

[Bill Lyster]

This is just from memory, but the UAE track does not give up intermediate times like this very often. The 111 six furlong split and the mile time look to be competitive with any US track times.

Yesterday's splits


Last years winner Thunder Snow ran 113.86-138.70-157.78 on other than fast track. TS won the big race yesterday running 113.89 - 137.21

Yesterday's Fla Derby ran 111.68 - 136.46 interior splits

The UAE Derby and FLA Derby winners will be hard to separate if you use The Hat's Marathon Method to determine your KD choice!

[Mitch44]

Bill Lister:


All 3 of the above races in my post set track records. So for that track it was definitely fast. But as a comparison and looking at the world class sprinters ( W,P & S all US horses) the 110.124 is more in line with a track like the old Calder where they ran their Summit of Speed each year. I would say it was at least 6 LG. slower than most typical US tracks.


I didn't like the fact that the jock didn't reserve some of the horse for the future. Winning by 18.5 lengths. Even through the purse was 2 Million but not smart riding. He did let up the last 50 yards or so.


This horse was looking around in the stretch at something in the infield so he still isn't giving 100% and the jock said he still races greenly.


Mitch44

[lone speed]

From Trakus charts:





Now if I can wake up Gene Rayburn from his yearly "hibernation" to assist in adjusting the fractional times for the "no run up" and metric times...

Quick Adjustments for Mendelssohn:

23.39 46.44 1:10.34 and mile fractions of 1:34.92

[yort2000]

Originally Posted by lone speed

From Trakus charts:


Attachment 45981


Now if I can wake up Gene Rayburn from his yearly "hibernation" to assist in adjusting the fractional times for the "no run up" and metric times...

Quick Adjustments for Mendelssohn:

23.39 46.44 1:10.34 and mile fractions of 1:34.92

GeneRayburn here. I forgot my password and I guess I no longer have the email address associated with that account either. I did get a password reset email for this account when I was plunking in the email addresses I still have in the lost password form. I must have set this account up when I forgot my password sometime previously.

I will put my calculated fractions for the past four UAE Derbies as that is when they switched to "real" dirt. I adjust the first 400m by subtracting 2 seconds for the run up. Just like my password, I don't remember why I went to 2 seconds, but it was because of long ago research that I did that is now forgotten, but I'll stick with it. I then convert that time into an average speed for the 400m and project that average speed to 2 furlongs or the first 1/4. As Mitch44 pointed out, you can then use the splits from all subsequent calls. I.E. I use the actual split difference from 400m to 800m and calculate the average speed for that 400m segment and project that average speed to the next 2 furlongs. I do this for each split 400m segment. I do a simple deceleration calculation for the final 300m segment (1600m to 1900m) assuming the horses run the first 200m slightly faster than the last 100m.

Ok, a lot of explaining for this:

2018 23.22 46.73 1:10.28 1:34.86 1:47.51
2017 22.93 46.47 1:12.28 1:37.26 1:50.04
2016 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.47 1:50.53
2015 24.14 48.26 1:12.67 1:38.12 1:50.35

Are these numbers exact? No. But they give a rough guideline and with that, WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! That sustained move from the 1/2 through the 1m based on the 46.73 1/2 time is amazing in relation to what horses were able to do here previously. This horse is in another league than anything that ran here before, regardless of track bias or variant. What does that mean? Who knows with all the negatives (shipping so close to race date, no time to acclimate, poor trainer and jockey stats for American dirt races). But, I will not be leaving him off the top of my superfecta tickets.

[yort2000]

Now as far a track variant. Yes, the track was running faster than any previous year, but by how much. For this I'll look at the actual times for the Dubai World Cup since UAE switched to real dirt. I did not convert these from the metric system to the imperial system nor adjust for the lack of a runup as we are just comparing year to year. (Race Splits, not individual horse splits.)

2018 25.73 50.43 1:13.89 1:37.21 2:01.385
2017 24.81 48.28 1:12.93 1:37.86 2:02.159
2016 25.39 48.98 1:12.57 1:37.25 2:01.836
2015 25.64 49.45 1:12.77 1:37.99 2:03.241

As you can see, Thunder Snow this year was the fastest dirt time for this race. However, he was allowed to get by with the slowest first fractions ever on the dirt. This is in sharp contrast to the UAE derby which has the fastest 3/4 and mile time by far of any previous version of that race on the dirt. So, was the track faster than previous, probably yes, but by 15+ lengths. Absolutely not.

We can also look to Mubtaahij who happend to run in the last 3 Dubai World cups.

2018 2:02.451
2017 2:03.816
2016 2:02.522

I thought the track was slower in 2017 and that is why I used Thunder Snow in the 2nd through 4th spots in my superfecta. Unfortunately, he pulled the ole "high ho silver away" bit out of the gate at the Kentucky Derby last year. His talent has been proven though as he has been running very well at UAE this year.

So, yes the track was running faster this year, but not enough to account for the monster effort shown by Mendellsohn in the UAE Derby. The only question is can he run back to that monster race.

[yort2000]

Originally Posted by yort2000

GeneRayburn here. I forgot my password and I guess I no longer have the email address associated with that account either. I did get a password reset email for this account when I was plunking in the email addresses I still have in the lost password form. I must have set this account up when I forgot my password sometime previously.

I will put my calculated fractions for the past four UAE Derbies as that is when they switched to "real" dirt. I adjust the first 400m by subtracting 2 seconds for the run up. Just like my password, I don't remember why I went to 2 seconds, but it was because of long ago research that I did that is now forgotten, but I'll stick with it. I then convert that time into an average speed for the 400m and project that average speed to 2 furlongs or the first 1/4. As Mitch44 pointed out, you can then use the splits from all subsequent calls. I.E. I use the actual split difference from 400m to 800m and calculate the average speed for that 400m segment and project that average speed to the next 2 furlongs. I do this for each split 400m segment. I do a simple deceleration calculation for the final 300m segment (1600m to 1900m) assuming the horses run the first 200m slightly faster than the last 100m.

Ok, a lot of explaining for this:

2018 23.22 46.73 1:10.28 1:34.86 1:47.51
2017 22.93 46.47 1:12.28 1:37.26 1:50.04
2016 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.47 1:50.53
2015 24.14 48.26 1:12.67 1:38.12 1:50.35

Are these numbers exact? No. But they give a rough guideline and with that, WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! That sustained move from the 1/2 through the 1m based on the 46.73 1/2 time is amazing in relation to what horses were able to do here previously. This horse is in another league than anything that ran here before, regardless of track bias or variant. What does that mean? Who knows with all the negatives (shipping so close to race date, no time to acclimate, poor trainer and jockey stats for American dirt races). But, I will not be leaving him off the top of my superfecta tickets.

When I first looked at these numbers and calculations, I didn't believe it. I figured there had to be a timing malfunction. So, l loaded up the 2018 replay video and synced it with the 2017 replay video and the times matched up. I then synced it with the 2016 replay video and those times matched up as well. In both cases, the winners of the races the previous years would have been back with 2nd and 3rd place horses this year when Mendellsohn hit the wire. So, no timing malfunction.

[Mitch44]

lone speed:


Actually the times are correct for no run up distance, When they position the timer away from the starting gate the times are faster because they get up to speed and only the first split is fast while the others splits are accurate. The final time needs to be adjusted due to the first split being faster.


Mitch44