Betting Examples Discussion

[Bill V.]

N0 need to apologize
There are no rules that say you did anything wrong. You can do what ever you feel is important to your own growth and ego.

Any examples shown are random. I was not calling anybody out. Some people, lurking in the back ground said they were interested, and support
looking at this issue.

I think I have opened some eyes and I say again that everybody can do what ever they want.

Thanks
Bill

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

N0 need to apologize
There are no rules that say you did anything wrong. You can do what ever you feel is important to your own growth and ego.

Any examples shown are random. I was not calling anybody out. Some people, lurking in the back ground said they were interested, and support
looking at this issue.

I think I have opened some eyes and I say again that everybody can do what ever they want.

Thanks
Bill

Well, I understand rmath's point, once he saw he could not win , then to try to get a free month by going 50%, makes sense, but you original post pointed out to me at least, how my 25 w/p wagering stands no chance of evr winning this contest, unless are my plays are 8-1 or higher, and they are not.

Now this month I will finish as I started 25 w/p, but next month use a few variances that you pointed out , and hopefully my ROI will be higher, not my score, but my ROI, and of course my score too.

CCC looked good to try, 50 win and 20/30 w/p as 2nd horse with higher odds and helps me keep the hit rate up, and when this gets to a certain point, then I need to get my 20 race cycle, on win bets only, maybe.

I always thought that eventually I could get to where I could win bet 1 horse and place bet another and still get above 50%, yet waitning on win bets m/l 3-1 or higher as 7/2 may be tougher to wait for, we'll see.

But this is fun so far and watching what others do and seeing there pacelines are helpful, that to me is what the contest is all about.

patrick

[Ted Craven]

Dick,

A couple of thoughts:

Although you have reached 20 races played, your contest for July is not even half over yet, if you want to continue. You can work as many races as you feel like, and the last 20 races are used to score your performance in the Contest (a new rule for July). So although you have achieved a .500 hit rate in the first 20, and indeed do win a 1 month RDSS subscription extension prize if you stop now, you may go on to significantly improve your Bankroll and possibly your hit ratio and qualify for the top prizes. I invite you to do just that!

As Bill points out, you have indeed played your contest completely as provided in the Contest Rules, no worries. However, I fear that adopting a Contest wagering strategy which tends to aim for maintaining Hit Rate at the expense of Bankroll growth is NOT what we want this Contest to appear to enable. The very title of the contest is 'Learn to Win' not Learn to Place.

I maintain that Place betting has an important role in both evening out runs of Losses and taking money out of the race where the Place pool is where there is overlaid value.

But a betting strategy which would only succeed in the 'contest world' but not in the real world is not one we really want to teach people, or represent that this is what the Sartin Methodology embraces. There are a lot of people looking on this Contest even if they are not playing yet, and some of them are trying to figure out if the software and wagering recommendations promoted here (e.g. multi-horse or multi-pool wagering) are worthy.

Let's show them all the tools the Methodology has to offer! You have hit .500 of all your bets and almost broke even after 20 races, which is about what I did last month and I won a prize for it! Please keep up the good work and keep on going for the Top prize. As Gfnut showed us all last month, it only takes 1 or 2 nice Win mutuels to rocket to the top - well within your abilities with your eyes closed, IMO!

Good luck, and good skill going forward!

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Well, I understand rmath's point, once he saw he could not win , then to try to get a free month by going 50%, makes sense, but you original post pointed out to me at least, how my 25 w/p wagering stands no chance of evr winning this contest, unless are my plays are 8-1 or higher, and they are not.

Now this month I will finish as I started 25 w/p, but next month use a few variances that you pointed out , and hopefully my ROI will be higher, not my score, but my ROI, and of course my score too.

CCC looked good to try, 50 win and 20/30 w/p as 2nd horse with higher odds and helps me keep the hit rate up, and when this gets to a certain point, then I need to get my 20 race cycle, on win bets only, maybe.

I always thought that eventually I could get to where I could win bet 1 horse and place bet another and still get above 50%, yet waitning on win bets m/l 3-1 or higher as 7/2 may be tougher to wait for, we'll see.

But this is fun so far and watching what others do and seeing there pacelines are helpful, that to me is what the contest is all about.

patrick

Patrick,

Per my advice to rmath above, don't stop at 20 races this month. If you understand you should change your betting strategy, start today!

May I suggest that a Place bet lower than the Win bet on a horse rarely if ever makes sense. And a small lone Place bet on a 2nd horse with no corresponding Win bet is a strategy just crying out as 'not trying to make money'.

Your strategy so far of splitting your $100 4 ways over 2 horses Win/Place may make the best sense if you have no access to post time odds and must bet off the Morning Line and your analysis screens. In real-time, I'm sure that many of those less than $7.00 mutuels you have hit (and you've had quite a few!) you would never have split your bet to the Place pool - you would have put that $25 to Place in the Win pool and gotten a much better mutuel for it.

My research of your betting (through Wednesday) shows that you only got 2 Place wagers on horses which did not win, and those for $6.20 and $3.80 to Place. All of the other bets you HIT, you hit in the Win pool, so if ALL your wagers were in the Win pool and NONE in the Place pool, you would be significantly ahead in Bankroll, with only 2 more losses (through Wednesday).

If you permit, I will post your Contest spreadsheet here with that analysis, as an example of how you - or anyone - could improve their Bankroll AND Final Score (i.e. after Hit Rate %) by angling more toward the Win pool, and only selectively in the Place pool.

We could enact rule changes for August to prevent some less-than-optimal Place pool betting strategies - BUT, I am inclined to suggest education and feedback of one's racing records - i.e. consequences of actions taken - as the better way. And the way adopted by 'mother nature' in the real pari-mutel world out there, which is where we are really playing this game.

That said Patrick, for not having access to real-time odds, you are doing remarkably well after only 8 races.

Keep up the good work (and don't let the 'doubters' elsewhere have a whit of influence on you )

Ted

[pktruckdriver]

Permission Granted Ted, and many thanks for it too.

Patrick

[rmath]

Ted, Yes I thought about playing more races, but as soon as I play one more horse my bankroll would be reduced by 792.50, the net proceeds from my first winner. I felt that this would put me in serious hole and I felt that it would be nearly impossible to overcome the deficit.
Hope you see my dilema, and any suggestions would be appreciated.
rmath

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rmath

Ted, Yes I thought about playing more races, but as soon as I play one more horse my bankroll would be reduced by 792.50, the net proceeds from my first winner. I felt that this would put me in serious hole and I felt that it would be nearly impossible to overcome the deficit.
Hope you see my dilema, and any suggestions would be appreciated.
rmath

I do see your dilemma! How about conducting this 'thought experiment': pretend that you are beginning August's contest today and have 15 days to bet another 20 races. I'm sure you would never consider 'I should not play in the August contest because I'll never hit another $23.80 Win mutuel like I did the first play in July' Rather, consider that the slate is 'clean' and start again.

That's the worst case. The better case is that you go forward and actually hit several double digit mutuels, perhaps in less than another 20 races. Several people have done precisely that and naturally so can you, with your degree of skill. Look at Gfnut the final day of the June Contest, who hit mutuels of $17.20, $22.60 and $19.60 with Win bets on each - $1195 profits in one day - at Hollywood. Look at Barb Craven yesterday at WO with a $19.40 Win mutuel, though alas only a $5.70 Place mutuel ). These good hits do happen, as can a string of simply random distribution of racing outcomes which allocates a bunch of Losses in a row your way. For both the foregoing reasons, playing onward makes great sense - just like it would in real life: after a bad day, we regroup and move forward with confidence in our long term ability - and things even out as your long term records show.

Consider another 'thought experiment' at the same time as the one above: pretend that your 1 month RDSS subscription prize is not in jeopardy - pretend it has been won and cannot be lost regardless of what happens over the rest of July. With the risk of losing that removed, how does this change your confidence level?

My only other suggestion going forward is - pay no attention to betting simply to obtain a good hit rate, i.e. making small Place bets which pay little or even lose money over all. Consider restricting Place betting to top contenders going off at odds greater than 7-1, and THEN making any Place bet the same size or greater than your Win bet on that horse.

The Contest is not about Place betting at all, but we have to keep the betting structures simple enough to score easily and not result in runaway winners from boxcar exotic hits. I believe that simple Win and Place betting (where prudent) form the foundation of all other good betting practices, and this is what I want to help teach people - with your assistance!

Best of luck and skill going forward, my friend.

yours,

Ted

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Consider restricting Place betting to top contenders going off at odds greater than 7-1, and THEN making any Place bet the same size or greater than your Win bet on that horse.

Ted

As you can see above, Ted suggested betting “place” on horses going off at odds of 7/1 or greater, so that is where I started.

I took 2 consecutive years and counted how many horses went off at odds of 7/1 or greater. There were 369,123.
Then I counted how many of those horses won. That number was 17,005.
Then I counted how many of those horses “placed”, but DID NOT WIN. There were 26,277.
Then I calculated the “place price” for those horses that either won or placed. It came to $11.76
Then I calculated the “win price” for those horses that won. It came to $31.23.

Ok, so what does all this mean?

Of the total number of horses that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, 7.12% of those horses ran 2nd.

Of the total number of horses that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, 4.61% of those horses WON.

If you bet $2 “to place” on every horse that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, you would have LOST $429,128.

If you bet $2 “to WIN” on every horse that went off at odds of 7/1 or higher, you would have LOST $207,179.

As you can see, betting to place returns a "hit rate" of 7.12 %
Betting to win returns a "hit rate" of 4.61%.....not a big difference. Why?

Because horses going off at these odds do not run “in the money” at a high rate. In most cases they either win or run out of the money. There are a few, as you can see, that do run 2nd without winning, but you have to ask yourself, "is it worth it?”

Where the difference really shows up is in the overall return.
Betting these horses "to place" returns a loss of $429,179
Betting the same horses "to win" returns a loss of $207,129….less than half the loss of just betting to place.

When it comes to betting win,place or show, there is no better bet than "WIN". Your "hit rate" may not be as high, but the "return rate" more than makes up for it!

Personally, I don't bet a horse unless it goes off at odds of 4/1 or higher and like everyone else, I see my share of horses that run 2nd, however, being aware of what I have explained here, I ONLY BET TO WIN.

I hope and trust that this will be of value to all those who take the time to read it.

[rmath]

What was the actual number of races in your study?
Just curious.

[Bill V.]

Thank you.

If its possible, If you don't mind would it be asking too much to do the same analysis with horses that went off at 4/1 and above

Only because Doc's guidelines are to back up a win bet on horses that will pay
over $10 with a place bet


thanks
Bill