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08-14-2019, 10:39 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Horizontal Bet Strategy
Spent some time today with some "sharp" bettors at SAR. The gist of the conversation was how to construct horizontal bets (DDs, p3s, etc.).
The concept that stuck out when betting horizontal wagers was finding low odds (first, second betting choice or first, second ML) THAT CANNOT WIN! That is, when win betting you generally try to find win contenders and look for some sort of value (+EV). But you cannot do that with horizontal bets, since one loss knocks you out. Instead, you need to find a sequence that has one (or several) races where you TOSS a favorite, or a low odds second choice, or both. By doing this you back into +EV with your bet, and you avoid betting a sequence where the cost of your tickets exceeds the payout. Remember, almost everyone will put the "favorite" on their ticket as a "saver". You edge comes from finding favorites that have little or no chance to win this particular race, and construct your ticket without them. So when betting DDs and p3s, pass unless you can toss the first or second favorite in at least 1 race of the sequence (preferably not the first race in the sequence). Similarly, in p4s and p5s, pass unless you can toss the first or second favorite in at least 2 races of the sequence. And pass all jackpot p6s (with their implied 45% takeout) unless there is a mandatory payout day (as there is Sunday Aug 18 at SAR). Richard |
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