3 year olds vs older

[For The Lead]

Recently I posted the following about a race in the matchers section.


The race is for three year olds and up.

The first part of the condition says “for three years olds and up that have never won two races”. (self explanatory)

The second part says “OR three year olds”. Notice there is no limit on the number of wins for three year olds.

Just 80 days ago, these three year olds were TWO year olds. Now, it is possible that one of these three year olds may have won two races in 2018, but under the conditions, it doesn’t matter. Why doesn’t it matter? Because their penalty is that they are running against older horses today.

Look at the three year olds. How many of them have run against older horses? Answer: NONE

After winning the triple crown, even the great Secretariat got beat the first time he ran against older horses! And that happened later in the year than we are now.

There are only three horses in the race that are four year olds or older. They are the #1, #5 and #7.

The winner? #5 at $16.00.


Then yesterday, Richie P posted race 1 from Lrl. It is another race where my above post applies.
Richie was absolutely correct about the winner being “FPLR”. For those who are satisfied stopping there, that’s fine, it will certainly get you headed in the right direction. However, there are other things that make the winner even easier.
You can see the field here. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11574

Here is the way I looked at the field.
Conditions: 3 year olds and up, $5,000 NW2L

#1 - 3 year old, 1 for 21 and never raced against older horses
#2 - 3 year old, never raced against older horses, big drop down
#3 - 3 year old, never raced against older horses
#4 - 4 year old that has met older horses several times, no form, 1 for 17
#5 - 4 year old that has run against older horses several times, like Richie said, FPLR and returning to the level at which it was claimed
#6 - 4 year old that has run against older horses several times, injury layoff (302 days) between race 7 and 8 sent the horse right to the bottom of the barrel.
#7 - 4 year old that has raced against older horses several times, 1 for 22, no form

All of the three year olds can be dismissed.
Of the 4 year olds, #4, #6 and #7 can be dismissed.
It really only leaves the #5.

I found it interesting that they made the #1 ( a 3 year old and 1 for 22) the favorite
Also, somebody bit for the #2 dropping down from 25,000 to 5,000 and claimed it, as it was eased beaten 40 lengths!

And the winner, #5, pays $14.40!!!

This is the time of year to find these type of races!