My Selections for TAM 12-28-11 5TH Race

[JIMBOB1002]

1,4, and 7 are scratched.Any opinions on my line picks would be appreciated.thanks Jim

[JIMBOB1002]

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[Seven Furlongs]

Has the 5 Roman Bay never raced a 7f race?

Actually to answer my own question, checking Equibase, it has, last year at Charles Town on 26 Dec , a Maiden win, and 20 Jan at Laurel Park. Actually before its maiden it seems to have raced at least once before at the distance. Its only win at the distance is the maiden win, which carried the following slow call times:
23.74, 48.05, 1:13.73, 1:27.73

Not sure if this helpful or not.

[JIMBOB1002]

Your right the 5 did nothing.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Zip Zap

Has the 5 Roman Bay never raced a 7f race?

Actually to answer my own question, checking Equibase, it has, last year at Charles Town on 26 Dec , a Maiden win, and 20 Jan at Laurel Park. Actually before its maiden it seems to have raced at least once before at the distance. Its only win at the distance is the maiden win, which carried the following slow call times:
23.74, 48.05, 1:13.73, 1:27.73

Not sure if this helpful or not.

I'm not exactly clear on your post.
IF the times you show are from the race at Charles Town, you could NEVER use that race even if it was the horse's LAST race. Charles Town is what is referred to as a "bull ring". It is called that because the track is just 6 furlongs in circumference rather than the normal race track that is 1 mile in circumference. For that reason, in a 7 furlong race at Charles Town, horses must negotiate more than one turn, making the times slower and NOT comparable to 7 furlong race at a 1 mile track.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by JIMBOB1002

1,4, and 7 are scratched.Any opinions on my line picks would be appreciated.thanks Jim

Your contender selection and line selection are "spot on"!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by JIMBOB1002

Your right the 5 did nothing.

I wouldn't be too critical of the #5's performance. There were only 6 horses in the race and of all your contenders, the #5 races the furthest back. The early horses dominated this race. Basically, the first 3 finishers ran 1,2,3 around the track. (see chart)

As for "hiding" the #6 (your top horse) just because it was the favorite, THAT doesn't make the horse lose. Although favorites win at or around 33% of the time, "ODDS ON" (less than even money) favorites win 50%+ of all their races. So, rather than arbitrarily hiding the horse, perhaps you should take a closer look at that horse AND the race to determine if the horse is actually the best in this field. If it is, you always have the option to PASS the race.

[For The Lead]

Sorry. Here's the chart.

[JIMBOB1002]

Thanks a lot for your advise and information.I enjoy reading your post and can tell your very knowledgeable on the subject.

[Seven Furlongs]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I'm not exactly clear on your post.
IF the times you show are from the race at Charles Town, you could NEVER use that race even if it was the horse's LAST race. Charles Town is what is referred to as a "bull ring". It is called that because the track is just 6 furlongs in circumference rather than the normal race track that is 1 mile in circumference. For that reason, in a 7 furlong race at Charles Town, horses must negotiate more than one turn, making the times slower and NOT comparable to 7 furlong race at a 1 mile track.

Well, it faded in its race on January 20th at Laurel, taking the lead and holding it for the first two calls and then finishing third at almost 1:26 seconds. Also, I probably shouldn't have referenced the Charles Town time due to the fact that it was its Maiden time. Still, I thought the horse would fade and not contend as its comfort level seems to be at around the 6 - 5.5f distance.

Roman Bay Jan 20 Laurel