Gp 3/8/2012 race 1

[JIMBOB1002]

Any Feedback on anything appreciated. #3 is scratched.Jim

[JIMBOB1002]

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[JIMBOB1002]

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[JIMBOB1002]

If the 2 and the 5 were both over 5/2 I would bet them both.If 2 was under 5/2 I would hide it and bet the 5 and the 8.

[Ted Craven]

Jim,

No fault with your line selection reasoning, or your analysis of the favourite #2 at 4/5 post time).

Here are the Paceline Selection Strategy #2 lines (best of last 3 comparable), with #2 relegated to Secondary. Note line 3 for horse #7. It's either a judgement call (use an alternate line, e.g. last line), or a mechanism to attain consistent line selection practice - to use best Perceptor of last 3. We know the the #7 is fit and ready from its last race and from its 8 day return interval (though, it is not a sprinter ...). 3rd line ranks it a little better, then changes the ranks of the eventual top 3 finishers ...





Sometimes the breaks go with you, sometimes against you! If you had used these above pacelines in this race, the same strategy may cost you a bet in another race - that is out of our control, in a game where many things are uncertain.

I will say that the #2 looked pretty strong, however it has dropped to its lowest class level ever over the past year - AND - has he ever shown capable of winning back to back races within 33 days (i.e. within such a short turnaround/recovery time)?

Good luck with the rest of the card!

Ted

[JIMBOB1002]

Thanks Ted.If I would have just remembered to take the #2 out on a hide. It changed the position of the other horses and I would have had the #5 and #6 as my bets.I tend to forget that sometimes.Jim

[Bill V.]

Hi Jim
I love your work up .. You just missed a nice 13/1 shot to another 13/1 shot

To me, with out having to make hide decisions the race comes down to
1 thing to use a line for horse 7 or not

I did and would have lost

Here are my lines and some readouts

horse 1 -3
horse 2 - 1
horse 3 NL
horse 4 NL
horse 5 -1
horse 6 -2
horse 7 -1
horse 8 No line
horse 9 no line

Here are my readouts

The varigate says sp









Nice try hope you have a good day

GGS
Bill

[JIMBOB1002]

Thanks Bill

[alydar_ David]

For what it's worth, I was at the track today talking to some trainers and owners. They said Gulfstream was "weird" today.

Also, it's been listed as "Fast" and "Firm" on the result charts. I think a more appropriate description would be "Funky." It rained off and on last night and today; it's been windy and something seems to be happening with the ocean.

Is "Spooky" an official designation? I guess "Weird" may be the best description after all.

Personally, I'm not using any of today's races for my models.

[For The Lead]

This is one of those races where you really don’t need software. There are only 3 contenders, 2, 5 and 6.
The thing to remember is, it’s not just the race in front of you that you are trying to win, but all the races that will be in front of you from now until you reach the big racetrack in the sky! The “key” is, consistency, handicapping each race with the same set of guidelines, knowing that you will win some and lose some, with the primary goal being, making a profit in the long run, not just in the race in front of you at this moment. Let me run down the horses.

Well, before I do, let me just go over a couple of things that are right in the Paceline Manual. “Doc’s” guidelines are as good as any I know, so let’s use them. He always said, “the last line is the line unless there is a valid excuse to go back “1” line.” He also said, "don't make up excuses. There are plenty of "valid" excuses." Now Doc didn’t mean you should accept any old ugly race in the last line. The horse has to show you “something”. An in the money finish, good early form by being first or second at the first or second calls or a good middle move where the horse makes up ground/position between the first and second calls and is within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. If the horse doesn’t show you that in the last line, is there a “VALID” excuse for the bad race that allows you to go back one race? If there is, go back ONE line. If there isn't, throw the horse out. Also, we are also looking for lines that are similar in distance and on the same surface. The line you use should be recent, within the last 90 days. With that in mind, let’s take a look.

#1 – NO LINE. Let’s talk about the use of line “3”. What did this horse do in lines 1 and 2 that makes it “deserve” line 3? Nothing that I can see. In fact, in line one the horse was in a race that was a couple of class levels lower than today’s race and it still didn’t show anything.
#2 – last line, an obvious choice
#3 – scr
#4 – NO LINE. we ran out of excuses for this horse right out of the gate. This horse hasn’t shown anything in its’ last 4 races.
#5 – last line, an obvious choice
#6 – Line 2. This horse is a tough call. In its’ last race it wasn’t 1st or 2nd at the first or second calls. It was 3rd. It didn’t finish in the money. It finished 4th, beaten less than 3 lengths. But this race is supported by line 2 where it did finish in the money. I really wouldn’t argue with either line 1 or 2.
#7 – NO LINE. Remember, this is a sprint race and we are looking for lines at a similar distance. This horse doesn’t show a sprint race in the entirety of its’ past performances.
#8 – NO LINE. Its’ last race is ugly with no “valid” excuse for going back a line. Even if there was an excuse, line 2 is too old, 105 days.
#9 – NO LINE. JUST PLAIN OLD UGLY!

There you have it. Only horses 2, 5 and 6 are the contenders.
For two horse bettors that are throwing out the favorite anyway, the race is a bonanza. The remaining two horses make up the winner at $29.20 and the exacta at $223.20.
This should surely be a comfort to you when you lose a race when a horse like the #7 beats you because you didn’t use it. They don’t win that often anyway, so don’t be concerned about it. Keep your eye on the “long run”.