Win Payout Frequency Graph

[gl45]

a frequency of your bets and the roi attached to it would be more a realistic model of your
system, beside i'm a firm believer of mastering one track, where most of the same horses do race against each other. Good luck!

[mick]

I apologize for any misunderstanding. I'm doing some statistical research for Ted on the ROIs of Rx2 and Rx3 compared to MLO# and PTO#. This isn't about my own system. (I don't actually have a system and bet sparingly, but have managed a 1.23 ROI for the year.)

I created the Frequency Distribution graph to determine if I could use the Empirical Rule and Standard Deviations to trim the extreme values that skew the data and distort results. I wanted a more accurate statistical picture, so to speak. Once I had compiled it (and realized I didn't have a Normal Distribution), I thought it might be of interest to others.

It's only a graphical representation of the win payout frequencies of the dirt sprints (mostly claimers) in my database. Hopefully, some do find it interesting.

[gl45]

see if this can help you......"Say you have a sample of 100 races. If the mutuel prices are sorted from lowest to highest, the lowest may be 2.20 and the highest
89.00. The purpose of modeling is predicting the future.
That purpose can best be fulfilled by using an approximation that is far more likely to be repeated
than simple averaging of the 100 mutuel prices would indicate.

Using the list of sorted mutuel prices, pick the 25th from the bottom and the 25th from the top.
Those values may be 8.00 and 4.00. Add to get 12.00. Divide by 2 to get 6.00--which is an accurate
predictive value of what future average prices will be.

Multiply the 6.00 by 1.5 to get 9.00. Set that as a default value to replace
any mutuel price greater than that amount and go through the list of mutuel prices again using:

If (mutuel price) > 9.00 then (mutuel price) = 9.00

Use the new cleaned data to calculate an ROI.
If it is positive, you may have something that can usefully be applied to future races.
Not guaranteed, but a much more dependable model than using dirty data...."

BTW, the MIQR is used routinely in predictive computer modeling and simulations. It is not some personal quirk of mine, good luck.

[mick]

gl45, thank you for your suggestion. The "M" in MIQR stands for ... ?

[gl45]

M=modeling....you already know what IQR stand for.

[mick]

Thank you, gl45. I enjoy learning new things.

[gl45]

mick,
one factor frequency, MLO or PTO, about a bunch of factors. Here is a good reading.

http://racingtopics.blogspot.ca/2017...g-matters.html

[mick]

Thanks, gl45. That's a fine article. (Did you write it?) It captures much of my thinking about playing the horses.

[gl45]

mick,
are you kidding.....me writing that kind of article about racing handicapping.
Good luck at the races

[mick]

Hi, gl45.

Since we all use aliases, I wasn't sure if I was corresponding with Jim Quinn.