The Difference In My Game This Year

[Neil S.]

To the Pace and Cap Family:

As many of us continue to struggle with finding the secret to long term profits in horse racing, I have had a breakthrough this year. I have brought together all of the elements of my play, added newly found tools by reading the excellent contributions on the Match Up and have decided that once and for all I was going to put things together and stick to a strategy of wagering no matter what.

The biggest difference in my "game" this year is that I have settled on one style of play and have not strayed. I know that this is easier said than done, and lord knows I have strayed many times before, but what appears to be different this time is that I have used my own stats to verify where my best win opportunities lie. I have read most of Richie's posts and those of the HAT and made the committment to myself to start over again.

First I tried to just win races consistently regardless of profits. I used the old reliable TPR numbers to identify contenders. I have years of statistics that shows me where the winners come from when doing this. Next I would develop the skills needed to isolate my top 3 selections and consistently find the winner by betting 2 of these horses to win regardless of odds. I used the match up strategies I found here to separate the top three contenders and consistently won 9 of 20 races each cycle. I did 10 twenty race cycles betting $5 per race. My stats had shown me that my win percentages were highest when I only played races where every horse (I would allow just one horse in some cases but never more than one) had at least three rateable lines. I was amazed to see that although races with lightly raced horses produced higher mutuels they were also highly unpredictable in terms of my TPR ratings and as a result I was losing a lot of these races and hurting my overall profit potential. I only bet races that qualified on pacelines. This was difficult at first to imagine myself doing as we all tend to dwell on the big prices that "get away". Betting only to win and only spending $5 per race was also difficult as the money was not significant to me. However the discipline required to do this toughened my resolve and enabled me to objectively critique my performance as I went along. I noted selection errors and improved my match up skills with each passing cycle. At the end of the 10 cycles I found myself with a 45 percent win rate but sadly a 3.8% loss. I was not disheartened by this, but instead I was encouraged because I knew that this was only an exercise in finding the winner consistently. Now I had to evaluate the races I bet on to find what conditions produced the profit potential. It did not take long to see that I needed to adhere to standards that I have long read about but never had the courage to follow. I examined my performance in races where my low odds selection had a ML odds of 5-2 or higher and my higher odds horse had ML odds of 6-1 or higher. I was not surprised to see a significant decline in the number of "playable" races (about 40 percent qualified on these odds requirements) as well as a modest decline in the win percentage (drop from 45% to 38%). However the payoff of my efforts was seen in the reversal of the 3.8% loss into a 12.3% profit!!

I immediately started a second set of 10 twenty race cycles betting $10 per race but focusing only now on qualifying paceline races which also qualified on low and high odds requirements. I would pass everything else. Although my win percentage declined I have won 4 of the 6 cycles I have thus far completed and have a 10.9% return on my investment and an overall profitability for the year.

I faced the biggest challenge to my will power on Preakness weekend when I inexplicably went into an 11 race losing streak. I briefly looked at my pacelines and chalked it up to a variance of some sort. I lost the cycle and then suddenly found myself losing another 8 in a row to start a new cycle. I did not doubt my long term numbers and vowed to plug along knowing that whatever was causing this abberation would not last much longer. My discipline was rewarded by 6 wins in the next 8 playable races and a most satisfying profit in a cycle that I thought was all but lost.

I have been playing for a long time and know that there is a lot of variance that interferes with your concentration at times. However when I look at my numbers over a reasonable period of time I see the same percentages over and over again. I know that my approach to line selection is right. Now I have finally discovered what I have been doing wrong all this time. I have been betting on too many races that either did not perform consistently to my numbers or did not offer me sufficient risk reward.

All of you who read this can do it too, only you have to start with the basics and re-build yourself. Concentrate on getting the winner and do this for a few cycles whether or not you are profitable. Keep stats on where the double digit mutuels fall in your selections for future reference. Become comfortable finding the winner again, and only then will you be ready to win again.

I ignore exotics completely and merely smile at the stories of big wins from other players. I am happy for them but I cannot do what they do as this person's process works for them and I must strive to find what works for me.

Doc once scolded me in a letter when I mentiuoned how good someone was doing and I wasn't achieving the same types of results. I can hear his words: "You have to learn to win by yourself because it is your skill and your analysis of your data that makes you a winner. Racing is a solitary existence at times and we only have to be better than "us" to be a success."

I still have a long way to go to get better and to register what would be my most satisfying winning year. Granted, I find that using the principles of the match up to supplement my own contender process works for me. There are many of you who strive to go to the next level, and perhaps I will one day join you there. However for now I have "found myself" and am continuing to build this foundation.

I hope that you can do this as well.

Neil

[azbacks]

Neil,

Thank you for your informative post. Your record keeping and discipline are paying dividends.

I am in the learning phase and must be more disciplined.

Pete

[Tim Y]

KNOW THY TRACK. How often do we go after a new track, or re-visit an old course, and forget to UNDERSTAND it's particular style before plunking down a wager?


Play on paper at least 8-10 cards and review them before dollar one is wagered.

[shoeless]

Neil,Very good post,came at the right time where I was ready to pack it in for awhile.Jeff


Tim,GOOD ADVICE.Since Tampa closed I have been playing like a fish out of water.Jeff

[admin]

Thanks Neil

I saw my self in many of your words
I too have found myself skidding off a 20 race cycle
and into a short term decline But Its finally sinking in
that It generally happens when I try something
that might work excellent for some one else but it is not me
The lessons from Rich and Hat in the hat check area
have boosted my over all methodology skills

I am doing much better this year than last
We just hit the half way point My goal is one
more win each 20 race cycle and to do each race with
a smile and feeling of positive energy
workin to make it happen

GS
Bill

[lsosa54]

Very good stuff, Neil. Keep it up!

[thelyingthief]

neil: congratulations.

i would recommend that, now that you have a profitable base and the discipline, you turn your analytical gaze at some of those races that produce high odds. there are subsets that are very playable, and can really shoot your roi up the scale.

glad to hear you're mastering yourself.

tlt.

[Neil S.]

Thanks to all for the good words. I realize that there are some subsets in those races with lightly raced horses but that will be a project for a future time. Right now I have a plan for this year and I will stick to it, but I will gather information in the meantime.

Neil

[froggy]

Neil,

You have found the key to the bank.
The secret to winning isn't a better computer program or having more information or a new super secret angle.
Everyone here that can read your post has all of what they need to win.
They just have to put it together and put it to work.
Plan your work and work your plan.
And that is what you have done.

It feels good to walk away with more than you came in with doesn't it.

I'm proud of you.

Froggy

[Neil S.]

Record keeping has always been at the core of the methodology. Whether it be track modeling or a similar offshoot, knowing where the winners come from and in particular what races produce double digit opportunities is the key to having long term success.

The major pitfall of record keeping is lacking consistency in your process. If you use different paceline selection criteria or your data sampling has too many questionable races (i.e. races with a lot of lightly raced horses in my case) then your results may not be consistent. I use a very rigid style of line selection which may not be ideal in some races, however it produces a rate of consistency that is stunning. My numbers fall into line as the sample grows in size and it gives me the confidence to know that if I plug away long enough the winners will come and the profits will follow.

The worst trap is to catch a $80 winner and now shape your line selection and analysis to fit that one result. As we all know things aren't that simple.

Neil