The Difference In My Game This Year - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

JoeLong · 06-11-2008, 04:19 PM

Hi Neil,

Thanks for your timely post it got me to thinking about finding out how to make the next great leap. What I did was to produce a workout of the three programs I had successfully used in the past and record their top two selections.

I choose Belmont for May (4/30 - 5/29) using the three handicapping programs that I have used in the past, EquiSim, WHP2 & AODDS, here is the summary. SIM, COMP & PRO are the three main EquiSim selectors, WHP & AODDS are stand alone programs. Nothing is profitable just using the top two but Pro is only losing .11 on the dollar which is beating the take and it might not require too much more work to be able to grind out a profit with some selection rules in place.

Code:

#RACES	204	SIM        COMP         PRO        WHP          AODDS				
WIN%		38.73%	   36.27%	48.04%	   42.16%	46.57%
PROFIT		-$167.70   -$178.40	-$87.40	  -$131.60	-$199.80
ROI		$0.79	   $0.78	$0.89	   $0.84	$0.76
MAX-PAY		$45.60	   $79.00	$66.00	   $31.40	$29.60
AVG-PAY		$8.21	   $8.62	$7.43	   $7.96	$6.49
MIN-PAY		$3.10	   $3.10	$3.10	   $3.10	$3.10

Thanks for nudging me along.

Joe.

Here is the full file.

Neil S. · 06-11-2008, 07:19 PM

Joe:

If you can look at these races a little more closely you will probably find a group of races which either wins at a much lower rate, or better yet results in a higher than average win mutuel. Either piece of information would be enough for you to focus on this as the key to turning minor losses into a solid steady profit. What you have produced here is the "first step" of the process of winning. Now you have to drill this data down and find the areas of either strength or weakness. Look at the odds spreads on the races you played and see how you did in low odds or higher odds situations. Did you have more success in sprints or routes, or in my case in races with a lot of lightly raced horses? I found these races to be more unpredictable and hurting my overall ROI.

Take the next step and let me know how you do!!!

Neil

jms62 · 06-12-2008, 11:23 AM

Absolutely I would suggest the following

Dirt Sprints
Dirt Routes

Turf Sprints
Turf Routes

Maiden Dirt Sprints
Maiden Dirt Routes

Maiden Turf Sprints
Maiden Turf Routes.

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06-11-2008, 07:19 PM	#12
Neil S. Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Pembroke Pines, FL Posts: 170	Joe: If you can look at these races a little more closely you will probably find a group of races which either wins at a much lower rate, or better yet results in a higher than average win mutuel. Either piece of information would be enough for you to focus on this as the key to turning minor losses into a solid steady profit. What you have produced here is the "first step" of the process of winning. Now you have to drill this data down and find the areas of either strength or weakness. Look at the odds spreads on the races you played and see how you did in low odds or higher odds situations. Did you have more success in sprints or routes, or in my case in races with a lot of lightly raced horses? I found these races to be more unpredictable and hurting my overall ROI. Take the next step and let me know how you do!!! Neil

06-12-2008, 11:23 AM	#13
jms62 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 798	Absolutely I would suggest the following Dirt Sprints Dirt Routes Turf Sprints Turf Routes Maiden Dirt Sprints Maiden Dirt Routes Maiden Turf Sprints Maiden Turf Routes.