Jim's 5 Step Approach in Action

[THE HAT]

Stan,

These are dangerous horses. If there isn't any speed in the race they could
get the lead. I look at the total past performance and usually put more weight on the most resent line.

Jim

[Turbulator]

Thank you, Jim for your analysis. It's much appreciated. I studied this race for two full days before I looked at the explanation and results. I wanted to see if I could get to the nitty gritty of this race without any help. I suggest to all following these threads that if Jim is kind enough to post any more races that you go through this process as well. It will help your handicapping immensely. And don't just say, I think I've got it figured out. Actually get in there and study it until you are as sure as you can be. It will be well worth the effort.

At first glance I thought this race was very hard. There were a lot of different distances and many different tracks and surfaces. It hurt my head just thinking about all of it. It thought it was very hard.

After struggling for a long time with the projected pace I ended up picking the wrong projected pace line. Even so my final two horses were Dave and Retribution. I had taken a completely different route. Then I took a peek at the explanation . . . Retribution four races back. Damn.

I couldn't believe I overlooked this. I tried using three different projected pace lines for this race, but when Jim said this is the race to use it then became painfully obvious where I made my mistake.

So then I went back to studying the race from that point forward, and I'm happy to say I got it down to the winner (Dave) and Retribution again. (Yes, I know Retribution was eliminated, but I still felt he was a contender.)

So here is my problem. I don't see that Unnerving will bother Retribution on the front end. I can see where he might bother him to the first quarter, but It looks to me like Retribution will be all alone at the half and 3/4 marks. In other words, Unnerving isn't nearly as fast going to the lead. I can understand throwing them both out if you think they will bother each other most of the way, but I don't see that they will.

Here is the projected pace:

23.2 47 110.3 135.2 147.4

And here are the last three lines for Unnerving:

1Aqu yld 1 1/16 T :23.4 :48.4 1:14.3 1:47.1
7Aqu fm 1 T :23.2 : 47.1 1:12.1 1:37.2
10Bel fm 1 1/16 T :24 :48.4 1:12.4 1:42.1

I have Retribution well ahead at the half and 3/4.

Why do you think these two horses will fight tooth and nail for the front end? Why won't Retribution be able to "put away" Unnerving?

Thanks again, Jim

Steve

[Turbulator]

I just thought of one answer to my own question. Unnerving is a part of a coupled entry with a sustained horse, so it seems only logical that they will send him in order to help set up the race for Golden commander.

However, I'd still be interested in hearing Jim's answer to my orignal question assuming Unnerving and Golden Commander were not part of a coupled entry.

Thanks,

Steve

[VoodooFan]

Here's my theory. MatchUp theory:1) Doc Sartin always said a horses 1st fraction, regardless of form, tells you how the horse is feeling....with that said...MatchUp theory:2)Unnerving last 4 races, he broke no less than 2nd before the quarter mile. MatchUp theory:3) For "True" Early horses: check past performance of old races of Early horses(horses that either Need-to-Lead, or 2nd within 1/2 length), regardless of days off, you will notice that if an Early horse either gets the lead, or is 2nd by a Head, or maybe even 2nd within 1/2 length at the 1st call,........ his very next try, he will "break" for the lead when the gate opens,and whether he gets it or not at the quarter, he'll run hard at the break, most likely "Heading" the horse before the quarter, NO MATTER HOW FAST THE FRACTIONS ARE!!!! He'll run "Real Hard" at the "break" before settling for 2nd at the 1st call, if he dont outright get the lead at the first call anyway. This will "cost" him and any other Early horse valuable energy at the end of the race. Picture it. If you run as fast as you can humanly run for just a few seconds then , settle into a pace, you will not have the kind of energy you need to finish the race strongly , had you had an "Easy going" start at the "break". Check old racing forms to verify this "MatchUp" theory. The MatchUp can answer questions no other methods can usually answer. As "the Hat" says, trust in the MatchUp, it is the "Reality" of horseracing. Hopefully, Mr. Bradshaw can verify this or explain the correct answer.