Pattern Recognition - Pace and Cap

SilentRun · 07-08-2009, 09:04 PM

Hello Barb,

I want to thank you for your pattern recognition angle in you post.
I was playing Indiana Downs today (7/08) and in the 4th race the 1A horse,
Victory Lope qualified for the pattern. It was a weak contender 5th tier and a BAL = 10, low TE...
I would have not normally bet this horse. In fact I only liked 1 horse #6 and was going to pass.
when I said, "oh all right" and placed a small wager and I was glad I did.

Sorry for the rough edges as this is my first cut at using the free version of Screenhunter.
Thanks Again this adds to my WMD.

Regards,

Ernie

barb craven · 07-08-2009, 10:33 PM

Congratulations on the win Ernie. That's a great price!

I'm glad the pattern worked for you. It shows up quite a lot if you're looking for it.

Warmest regards

Barb

mikesal57 · 07-08-2009, 11:40 PM

see Barb...we were all waiting for you to pass around the cookies

mike

barb craven · 07-09-2009, 07:34 AM

Okay Mike.

There will be another one coming up in the near future. I have to check it out more first.

Barb

mikesal57 · 07-09-2009, 08:47 AM

Barb...will you be at Saratoga?

barb craven · 07-09-2009, 09:07 AM

Yes Mike, I sure will. I'm coming down with Ted. It will be a pleasure to meet you, and all the others.

mikesal57 · 07-09-2009, 09:22 AM

great...i will following you around the track

mike

barb craven · 07-09-2009, 10:23 AM

Lol!!!

For The Lead · 07-09-2009, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Hello Barb,

I want to thank you for your pattern recognition angle in you post.
I was playing Indiana Downs today (7/08) and in the 4th race the 1A horse, Victory Lope qualified for the pattern.

Regards,

Ernie

This “pattern recognition” angle is a good one and one I have observed many times over the years. However, there is usually “an excuse” that can be made for the last race. Some examples are, an OFF track, change in distance/surface or a move up in class. This “move up in class” does not have to be in actual claiming price. Sometimes there are changes in class within the same claiming price. For example, a horse wins at 5K NW2L (2nd race back), then moves to 5K NW3L (last race). This is a change in class. The horse is no longer eligible for NW2L and goes to the next logical step up in condition, NW3L. Many times a horse coming from a win at NW2L will not run well the next time out at NW3L.
In the example given here (4th race at Indy, horse 1A) this horse won vs. NW2L 2nd back, then ran poorly in its’ last race at NW3L. In addition, looking at the horses last 5 races, it shows 2 OFF track races in which it ran poorly. One of these OFF track performances was in its’ last race.
So it seems this horse has “2 excuses” for its’ poor showing in its’ last race after a winning performance 2nd back. This just serves to ENHANCE the angle.

SilentRun · 07-09-2009, 02:27 PM

Thanks for that analysis, I did not consider anything than the basic pattern.
Now I will start keeping records on this.

Ernie

07-08-2009, 09:04 PM	#1
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Pattern Recognition Hello Barb, I want to thank you for your pattern recognition angle in you post. I was playing Indiana Downs today (7/08) and in the 4th race the 1A horse, Victory Lope qualified for the pattern. It was a weak contender 5th tier and a BAL = 10, low TE... I would have not normally bet this horse. In fact I only liked 1 horse #6 and was going to pass. when I said, "oh all right" and placed a small wager and I was glad I did. Sorry for the rough edges as this is my first cut at using the free version of Screenhunter. Thanks Again this adds to my WMD. Regards, Ernie Attached Images

07-08-2009, 11:40 PM	#3
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	see Barb...we were all waiting for you to pass around the cookies mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

07-09-2009, 08:47 AM	#5
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Barb...will you be at Saratoga? __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

07-09-2009, 09:22 AM	#7
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	great...i will following you around the track mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

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07-08-2009, 10:33 PM	#2
barb craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada Posts: 1,308	Congratulations on the win Ernie. That's a great price! I'm glad the pattern worked for you. It shows up quite a lot if you're looking for it. Warmest regards Barb

07-09-2009, 07:34 AM	#4
barb craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada Posts: 1,308	Okay Mike. There will be another one coming up in the near future. I have to check it out more first. Barb

07-09-2009, 09:07 AM	#6
barb craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada Posts: 1,308	Yes Mike, I sure will. I'm coming down with Ted. It will be a pleasure to meet you, and all the others. Last edited by barb craven; 07-09-2009 at 09:08 AM. Reason: spelling

07-09-2009, 10:23 AM	#8
barb craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada Posts: 1,308	Lol!!!

07-09-2009, 02:27 PM	#10
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Thanks for that analysis, I did not consider anything than the basic pattern. Now I will start keeping records on this. Ernie