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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-04-2018, 10:28 AM   #121
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Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
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I assume your stats are correct and I'm well aware that long layoff horses are poor bets and risky. Just as well as horses stretching out, stepping up in class or repeat winners for that matter.

But where you make a mistake is that I do not bet all layoff horses. I only bet the ones that meet my standards. One of which is yours; " The only time I bet a layoff horse is if the horse won in the past off a layoff . . . " I also have several other requirements that it must meet which I posted in a previous post. If it meets my prerequisites I bet it and if not its discarded . The overwhelming majority get discarded, same for repeat winners and other aspects of handicapping.

I don't automatically discard horses with rules but I do look at them. Too many rules such as 90 day or odds over 20-1 etc. cause you to give up to high a percentage going into a race. I like to start off with a 100 % chance of winning and then I go from there.

Layoffs are a losing proposition only if you bet them all. Only a fool does or would do that.


Last edited by Mitch44; 03-04-2018 at 10:42 AM.
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