Value

[Dorianmode]

I kept *looking* at this trying to see why they were overlooking it so badly. Even the ML was a clue for them. Oh well.

[Dorianmode]

I was amazed at the value they left for us in the Belmont 9 today. I have been doing large fields of turf routes as my preferred race type, this year, as they seem to provide consistently better value. Not really sure why that should be the case, but it sees to be true.

Using best perceptor as the pace line, (which I always check to make sure it really makes sense), it looked like this :

[Bill V.]

Hi Damionmode

Nice win at Belmont.
Down at Parx they have been having trouble getting the turf races going with
almost every attempt taken off and put on the main track.

Here is a value win. It only paid $9.00 but since I only had lines for two horses I will take the Blue Star

my lines
Race 7 8.5 Turf CL 12,500 3 +
Open 12,5 claimer

1 No recent turf lines 1-23 lifetime no turf wins
1A No recent turf lines 3-37 lifetime no turf wins
2 No Line 2-23 1 turf win
3 scratch
4 Line 1 + turf win 8-46 life
5- No recent turf plus lines last two races on turf beaten 30 lenghts 5-21
6- No Line Turf sprinter 3-33 0/2 routing
7-No line No recent plus turf routes 5-37, won on poly at Kee but hated Pim turf
8 No line no recent turf plus races 3-37
9 No line no recent turf plus races 3-11 no turf races
10 Line 1 Turf win 7 -53

[Dorianmode]

I'll do it properly, and put it in my data base.
Just a very cursory look at the result, using "best perceptor", results in this for me. It is consistent with the observation that large fields in turf races seem to confuse the wagering public...I suspect it has to do with the fact that speed figures are less reliable in them. (???)

[Dorianmode]

I've been working on a way to (as an initial pre-handicapping look), either "match" or "disqualify" a horse, using the exported data fields in Excel, using the profile that a database of that type of race builds up, and statistical tools in Excel. I'll try to present an example soon. In any case, using that, the 10 horse has a VERY nice statistical advange, matched against the profile. It also pops out the exacta, as 10 - 1A, in the exacta profile. The trifecta profile ... not so much.
Oh well, back to the drawing board.

Intersting about all the rain this year, as you mention. I suppose most tracks have sophisticated drainage systems built underneath, so they probably dry out pretty quickly, but seems everywhere, SO many races have been taken off the turf this year.

[Blackrose]

How did you get the 11 at belmont. How did you decide which horses to keep an which to throw out?