Sloppy and Fast Tracks? - Pace and Cap

Mr.Pagine · 06-07-2013, 12:54 AM

A question to the group:

1) Do you use Sloppy lines - when the track is Fast?

I do not like to use Sloppy lines when the Track is Fast.

Having a tough time using the Derby lines, and Freedom Child's last.

What do you folks do?

Happy Punting

tom · 06-07-2013, 09:49 AM

My thoughts are I will use off track lines this year, seeing how much water is falling on Belmont. In fact, I will prefer wet lines.

Ted Craven · 06-07-2013, 10:00 AM

In RDSS at least, much of the analysis is done using adjusted times and the consequent compounded ratings. So, if a given paceline was from a sloppy surface, yet the DTV for that line (that day) was not abnormal, and the energy distribution pattern for that line was not abnormal for the horse (check the horse's E/L graph) and it appears that the horse was competitive in that sloppy line - then for myself, I see no reason not to use it if that would be a consistent choice from my usual paceline selection strategies. Usually the track condition is the last variable I check when deciding to use a given paceline (after recency, competitiveness, surface/distance appropriateness, Perceptor Total rating, DTV).

Of course it helps if the PPs show the horse does not hate an off surface (and if an Early type, this probably matters less). But for off surfaces (as with any surface condition), issues such as the pace matchup, traffic, condition, suitability to the race conditions - IMO, these matter at least as much and more than the wetness of the track.

FWIW.

Ted

Lt1 · 06-07-2013, 12:38 PM

I won't use an off track line on a fast track unless it's the only usuable line and is not out of whack with what the horse usually does on fast tracks.

06-07-2013, 12:54 AM	#1
Mr.Pagine Happy Punting Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Toronto, Ontario Posts: 481	Sloppy and Fast Tracks? A question to the group: 1) Do you use Sloppy lines - when the track is Fast? I do not like to use Sloppy lines when the Track is Fast. Having a tough time using the Derby lines, and Freedom Child's last. What do you folks do? Happy Punting

06-07-2013, 10:00 AM	#3
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	In RDSS at least, much of the analysis is done using adjusted times and the consequent compounded ratings. So, if a given paceline was from a sloppy surface, yet the DTV for that line (that day) was not abnormal, and the energy distribution pattern for that line was not abnormal for the horse (check the horse's E/L graph) and it appears that the horse was competitive in that sloppy line - then for myself, I see no reason not to use it if that would be a consistent choice from my usual paceline selection strategies. Usually the track condition is the last variable I check when deciding to use a given paceline (after recency, competitiveness, surface/distance appropriateness, Perceptor Total rating, DTV). Of course it helps if the PPs show the horse does not hate an off surface (and if an Early type, this probably matters less). But for off surfaces (as with any surface condition), issues such as the pace matchup, traffic, condition, suitability to the race conditions - IMO, these matter at least as much and more than the wetness of the track. FWIW. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

06-07-2013, 09:49 AM	#2
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	My thoughts are I will use off track lines this year, seeing how much water is falling on Belmont. In fact, I will prefer wet lines.

06-07-2013, 12:38 PM	#4
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	I won't use an off track line on a fast track unless it's the only usuable line and is not out of whack with what the horse usually does on fast tracks.