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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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03-16-2016, 01:11 PM | #1 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Factor Definitions / Adjustments Query
I got this Private Message. It seems partly germane to the TPR discussions so I include it here, though there is also a question about the formula for FW, compared to historical formulae.
If the individual wishes to follow up in public, no worries, otherwise privately is fine but I thought others might also benefit from the answer (below). Quote:
So, the PMTR/TPR screen numbers (EPR, LPR, TPR, E/L Difference) are adjusted. On the BLBL screen (and Primary screen) , 3 of the 7 Primary Factors are EPR, LPR, TPR (CPR) - thus BLBL and VDC is based on adjusted numbers. Another of those Primary Factors is Factor W (FW, Factor 'Win' ?). The calculation is: for SPRINTS: (2x EPR + 1x LPR) / 3, for ROUTES: (1x EPR + 2x LPR) / 3. For sprints, EPR is more important, for routes, LPR is more important, hence the relative weighting for each. Thus, when today's distance is a Sprint, lines are projected using the Sprint weighting of FW; when a route, using the route weighting. Re Turf factors - a model of Turf race factors usually shows strength in those factors emphasizing LPR (F3) but also good F2 and not inferior overall Total Energy or True Speed (average velocity start to finish, aka the Adjusted final-time-based Speed Rating). Thus: Hidden (another of the Primary Factors = F2+F3 average), TSF3 (True Speed+F3) - all show impact in Turf (route) models. However, note that since BL (and thus VDC which is partly influenced by BL) contains FW (route version) and Hid and Fx (all of which contain F3) - BL itself is a 'smoothed' out aggregate rating which turns out to be pretty predictive in BOTH Routes and Sprints: you can use the Top 4 BL (Top 3 VDC) as a pretty good starting point, then mentally nudge your BL tiers by taking into account strength in LPR ranks, late E/L distribution and the other Late factors. All of the foregoing subject to (and sorted out by, IMO) the prices offered on the tote at the time of wagering (i.e. in a Turf route, the 2nd best Late horse at 5-1 is not necessarily a worse bet - long-term - than the best late horse at 9/5. Maybe hit rate = worse, but ROI = better ...) ! Re rank differences comparing CPR (TPR) to Total Energy (F1+F2+F3 velocity) - a primary difference is that TPR is a 'coarser' measure (as is FW, and the old AP Average Pace) because the 'early' part of the rating (EPR) is an average measurement to the 2nd Call and does NOT take into account performance in the Fraction 1 part of it. EPR represents a 'smoothed' out performance in the first 4 furlongs for sprints and 6 furlongs for routes - if a horse has a high or low F1 (e.g. rank speedball, or troubled start, respectively), then F1 + F2 (as used in Total Energy) will sometimes tell a different tale than simply 2nd call. FWIW, that's why FX is also one of the 7 Primary Factors, measuring the horse's performance in BOTH F1 and F3. Hope that clarifies, but feel free to reply here, or privately! Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-16-2016 at 01:16 PM. |
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03-16-2016, 04:12 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Ted thanks very much for your reply as it clarifies my questions completely.
Actually today in the TPR forum there was a line for a horse with a -16 track variant. I don't normally fool with TPR but it sure is nice to know the adjustments are there and we can trust the adjustments by TrackMaster. Additionally for the explanation of FW that has evolved over the years and other information. Your information will enhance the picking of pace lines and best of all winners. Ever so grateful, Mitch44 |
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