What really matters?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Long Layoffs are a good thing

Good luck with this one especially at the cheaper tracks

I agree Jeff

Long layoff horses do win but very infrequently. Its nice to say after the race
when a long layoff horse win "see I told you they win"
But betting on them consistently is a losing wasted bet.

[Lt1]

Bill I know what he told me but you bring up another point. Would you consider this horse a ntl horse by the 2nd call since if I understand correctly line 1 doesn't project it be on the lead by that point. What was your feeling about that since we know that when most ntl types don't get it at the point they need they usually fold and finish off the board. The other point I was trying to make maybe not clearly enough was according to Doc mdn wins were not to be used after the horse wins a n1x and advances to this level of race since those lines are not comparable fot this conditions. I been using this approach ever since and have won far more then I lost since employing it. Again nothing works 100% of the time and it appears that based on yours and Mitchs contender paceline selections and readouts this may have been one of those times. Anyway congrats to both of you.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Thanks Tim, your correct nothing works all the time.


Ted made a good point that horses that win only do what they have to. I have learned that lesson well over the years. Its not uncommon to run into a horse that has won 4 or more races in a row, especially in better class races. For pace lines on those horses I always take the win that is the best even if L 4 or 5 back. That has served me very well over the years. The better horses only do what they have to do to win. Even smart jocks try to leave something in the tank.

I've accumulated some other quirks so to speak over the years in picking pace lines that others may think unconventional but they work for me. Also unconventional in picking some contenders too.


Regardless the foundation of my success with pace lines is in adhering to "The Doc's" guidelines for selecting pace lines which is the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. as designated by Preceptor. Preceptor far surpasses all other previous methods for picking the correct pace line. Those that fail to grasp and use it as intended ( pace line selection) , well there is absolutely no hope for you but thanks for your donation to the pools.


The tapes you recommended Tim, (LT1) (1998 by Sartin) will improve any members game both old heads and newbie's. Nothing better than getting it from the "Doc's" himself.


Good skill,
Mitch44


Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Well said Mitch in regards to pace line selections
Using a horses last 3 or 4 line to rate the last line, as the last line is the best indicator of current form is vital.

Tim, I'm glad we are on the same page
If a horse has failed 2 times at Alw N1x I can see where Doc's guidelines
would be in play.

However in this chase I hope you can, I think you would agree,
You can understand Mitch and my viewpoint that is ,Ask yourself, What else is the trainer suppose to do? Why punish the horse just because she not only won here NW1X condition,
She won without using close to the total energy she used as a FTS.
Again age sex and recency play a big part in advance pace line selections
BUT Preceptor and the adjusted speed rating and the match do too.
For Doc It was first a formost - the adjusted speed ratings.

Then when there was a question as to which of the last 3 races was best. Doc developed the F6 paceline indicator in Validator,

Ted drilled into this F6 key value and discovered it was the horse with the lower preceptor line score readout which highlighted to paceline ranked best.

So in theory Doc's guidelines were to use the best preceptor of the last 3 or 4 races at a comparable distance surface and competition lever
Compition level being total energy .


Bill

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Long Layoffs are a good thing

Good luck with this one especially at the cheaper tracks

If you read Mark's post it is the 3rd race back off the long layoff he focuses on as the trainer's "money race" and not the race back after the long break/

Richie

[Lt1]

Ok guys seem we all got a little different info from the Doc at different times.Like I've stated hr told me not to use the mdn line after the horse won its n1 condition which is what happen in the last race. However guys my other question about the horse was did you guys consider this horse a ntl by the 2nd call. If so did line 1 project him on the lead and if not did you worry he might fold as most ntl lead types do when they don't get it.
Tim

[shoeless]

Richie

Not that it matters but here is the complete quote

Long Layoffs are a good thing! It shows that the connections think enough of the animal to turn him out at the farm or otherwise pay feed, board and vet bills to get the horse sound again. Generally, the 3rd race off a 200+ day layoff is the money run.

While he does mention about the 3rd race it doesn't state anything
about not playing long layoff horses first asking.

Just a difference on interpretation

Jeff

[Bill V.]

Congratulations to those who say they win with longer than 90 day layoff horses, They win but very infrequently

Here is a workup of what is going on today

Not from ones recall of past sucsess These are recent results from races
I as a average user of the methodology actually handicapped
these are facts from my most recent 206 race

In the screen shot I have recorded every horsewho in those 206 races
ran coming off a layoff longer than 90 days.

There were a total of 1672 horses in those 206 races
of those 1672 horses only 79 ran after a layoff over 90 days
Of those 79 horses only 4 won the race
Here are the results of those horses who have run after a layoff of over 90 days
They sure did not get life changing win prices .

Here is the complete list of those 79 runners
in a spreadheet

over90 day lay off.zip

[Mitch44]

Tim I never considered her as a NTL and if she is in this match up she had an advantage of more reserve energy which she could use early and still survive. All the horses in this race were E and EP. The only horses that could prove that were the 7 who ran poorly and probably out of form and the # 1 who broke poorly.


She'll have to step up again in her next race and the stronger competition may disadvantage her or her form cycle could decline. Its very hard to make a decision off just a couple races to designate a horse a NTL and even they win in the correct match up.


To be honest I never consider the part of the race or calls to determine a NTL, I know the Doc uses 1st or SC but I always have just looked at what they do when challenged. Do they fight or spit the bit. Sometimes they run good to the stretch and into the stretch before headed and then toss the bit. Myself I never use the calls but use their reaction when passed regardless of where that takes place to determine a NTL.


Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Bill V.:


Your correct about the last line as an indication of form and its cycle. Thankfully RDSS now rates every line so this saves a lot of work. All a member has to do is consult POH Tot. Energy and the Preceptor (on the original screen) as its already done but they still don't consider the cycle / last race and ask the question ; Is this horse improving or declining?


Tremendous tool and many times because of being up in class , wrong distance etc. that last race looks very ugly. Any horses whose last race is its best or its best of the last 5 or 6 better take notice, especially with what the trainer does with it next.


Mitch44