Mountaineer Selections 5-3

[chardale]

1st -- 1 - 2
2nd -- 2 - 3
3rd -- 3 - 7
4th -- 2 - 7
5th -- 3 - 4
6th -- 1 - 6
7th -- 5 - 8
8th -- 4 - 6
9th -- 1 - 7
10th -- 2 - 6

[SilentRun]

[QUOTE=chardale;
1st -- 1 - 2
2nd -- 2 - 3
3rd -- 3 - 7
4th -- 2 - 7
5th -- 3 - 4
6th -- 1 - 6
7th -- 5 - 8
8th -- 4 - 6
9th -- 1 - 7
10th -- 2 - 6[/QUOTE]

I plan on playing Mountaineer also tonight but have not looked
at the field yet. It would be nice if you would explain a little
further as to why you are choosing these horses.

Thnx,

Ernie

[chardale]

Ernie I just bet both horses to win in each race

[barb craven]

I think Ernie means what lines did you use to come up with these horses. I would be interested too as I play Mountaineer too.

4 hits. Did you bet real money?

I play as I go. Sorry I can't post then, but I learned the hard way that I have to play or post. I can't concentrate on both at the same time.

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by barb craven

I think Ernie means what lines did you use to come up with these horses. I would be interested too as I play Mountaineer too.

4 hits. Did you bet real money?

I play as I go. Sorry I can't post then, but I learned the hard way that I have to play or post. I can't concentrate on both at the same time.

Barb is correct. I wanted to know what is the justification behind your picks ?
The lines, energy ,pace...whatever.

Barb...If it is not too much trouble you could always post the RDSS panels and reasons after the race.
You seem to have a good handle on Mountaineer. My record with Mountaineer
is spotty. I could always learn something.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

For this race there was an overlay in the place and show pools.
This is based on a small amount bet to place and show for specific horses
vs the total amount bet in those pools (For all horses) This concept is clearly explained in
"Money Secrets at the Racetrack" by Barry Meadow.

There was a huge ratio in the show pools for the 4 and 7 horses. Specifically
about 30:1 to 40:1. I.E Total Show Pool / Show pool for (4 & 7) = 30:1 to 40:1.
I did not have enough time to take a screen shot of the show pool but I
had the 4 and 7 to show. (Result Chart below)
Didn't bet to win though. (The 4 won at a nice price).
Both these horses were in my top 5 RDSS contenders.

For me the horse has to be in my top 5 to consider this
type of wager. This is definitly an uncommon event as
I usually track the show pools for these overlays and I think a 10:1 ratio is very good.

I find that this is a good strategy to mitigate your losses on
your win bets. I recall that the good doctor mentioned this strategy in one
of the "Follow Ups" but I cannot cite the issue #.

Thought this would be interesting to post.

Ernie

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

For this race there was an overlay in the place and show pools.
This is based on a small amount bet to place and show for specific horses
vs the total amount bet in those pools (For all horses) This concept is clearly explained in
"Money Secrets at the Racetrack" by Barry Meadow.

There was a huge ratio in the show pools for the 4 and 7 horses. Specifically
about 30:1 to 40:1. I.E Total Show Pool / Show pool for (4 & 7) = 30:1 to 40:1.
I did not have enough time to take a screen shot of the show pool but I
had the 4 and 7 to show. (Result Chart below)
Didn't bet to win though. (The 4 won at a nice price).
Both these horses were in my top 5 RDSS contenders.

For me the horse has to be in my top 5 to consider this
type of wager. This is definitly an uncommon event as
I usually track the show pools for these overlays and I think a 10:1 ratio is very good.

I find that this is a good strategy to mitigate your losses on
your win bets. I recall that the good doctor mentioned this strategy in one
of the "Follow Ups" but I cannot cite the issue #.

Thought this would be interesting to post.

Ernie

I think you looked at this the wrong way. It had nothing to do with the show pool on any horse other than the favorite.

There is no mystery here. Some "bridge jumper" bet a lot of money on the favorite to show and the favorite ran out of the money. THAT is the reason for the show prices being so high.

It is a rare event, but it does happen.

In case you don't know what a "bridge jumper" is, it's a guy who bets "the ranch" to show on a horse and then the horse runs out of the money. Then he goes and jumps off a bridge!! It's an old terminology.

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I think you looked at this the wrong way. It had nothing to do with the show pool on any horse other than the favorite.

There is no mystery here. Some "bridge jumper" bet a lot of money on the favorite to show and the favorite ran out of the money. THAT is the reason for the show prices being so high.

It is a rare event, but it does happen.

In case you don't know what a "bridge jumper" is, it's a guy who bets "the ranch" to show on a horse and then the horse runs out of the money. Then he goes and jumps off a bridge!! It's an old terminology.

Say the favorite ran in the money.....this does not change the amount of money
bet to show on the other contenders that ran in the money. It only means
that the favorite would provide a lousy show price. Hence if the 4 and
7 ran in the money (along with the favorite) they would still be an overlay and
would they not still provide a nice show price ?

Ernie

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

Say the favorite ran in the money.....this does not change the amount of money
bet to show on the other contenders that ran in the money. It only means
that the favorite would provide a lousy show price. Hence if the 4 and
7 ran in the money (along with the favorite) they would still be an overlay and
would they not still provide a nice show price ?

Ernie

These kinds of show prices happen for one reason and one reason ONLY. A very large amount of money is bet on one horse to show an that horse runs out of the money. (usually the favorite)

The reason for your extra large overlay on the two horses you noted, was due to an extra large show bet on the favorite.

Had the favorite run in the money, even if it was only a 3rd place finish, your show prices would have been seriously lower, overlay or not. Here's the reason.

When a horse wins a race, the total money bet into the win pool is returned to the winning ticket holders, minus the track take out. NOTE: take notice that when there is a "dead heat" for the win position, BOTH horses will pay considerably less than the odds they went off at. Why? The total win pool must be divided up and paid to two betting interests rather than one. The track is ONLY going to pay out the money in the pool minus their take, I don't care if it is a "ten way" dead heat.

Next, all the money in the place pool will be divided up among all the winning ticket holders on either the winner or the place horse, minus the track take, since it is possible to have a winning "place" ticket on either horse. NOTE: Pay attention to an entry that runs 1,2. You will notice that the place price will generally exceed the win price. The reason for this? Where the place pool would normally be divided into two winning betting interests, an entry is just one betting interest, so all the money in the place pool is going to one entity.

Lastly, the show pool is divided up among three betting interests. The winner, the place horse and the show horse.

Just as an example, suppose there is $99,000 on one horse in the show pool and $1,000 on the remaining horses. I don't care if the remaining horses are 1,000 to 1, if they run in the money and the favorite also runs in the money, all $100,000 is going to get paid back to the winning ticket holders (minus the track take out), most of it being paid to the winning show tickets on the favorite. There will be very little money left over to be paid to the winning show tickets on the other two in the money finishers. Since most tracks, by law, have to return a nickle on a dollar, the show price on the favorite would be $2.10 and the other two in the money finishers would come back at $2.20, regardless of their win odds or the overlay they appeared to be in the show pool prior to the race.

Now if that horse with the $99,000 bet to show runs out of the money, the result is what you saw at MNR the other night.Like I said, it is the ONLY WAY it can happen.

So to answer your question, no, had the favorite in this race run in the money, the show prices on your two horses would have been diminished to the point where you would have barely made a profit.

You were VERY fortunate the other night.

Just one more note. If you have been paying attention to the win, place and shows pools, then you will have a better idea about this than I do since I NEVER watch those pools. There was a time when I did, but no longer.

I looked at the charts for the 8th, 9th and 10th races that night. The charts do not give a breakdown of the win, place and show pools, but rather, the total of all three.

In the 8th race the total w,p & s pools were $65,000.
In the 10th race the total w, p & s pools were $57,000.
In the 9th race (your race) the total w, p & s pools were $85,000.
You can check the rest of them if you like, but my guess would be that somebody bet $20,000 to $25,000 to show on the favorite in the 9th race.
So like I said, if you have been following the pools, then you will know how much more money was in THAT show pool than what would be considered "normal".

Hope this helps.
Good luck.

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

These kinds of show prices happen for one reason and one reason ONLY. A very large amount of money is bet on one horse to show an that horse runs out of the money. (usually the favorite)

The reason for your extra large overlay on the two horses you noted, was due to an extra large show bet on the favorite.

Had the favorite run in the money, even if it was only a 3rd place finish, your show prices would have been seriously lower, overlay or not. Here's the reason.

When a horse wins a race, the total money bet into the win pool is returned to the winning ticket holders, minus the track take out. NOTE: take notice that when there is a "dead heat" for the win position, BOTH horses will pay considerably less than the odds they went off at. Why? The total win pool must be divided up and paid to two betting interests rather than one. The track is ONLY going to pay out the money in the pool minus their take, I don't care if it is a "ten way" dead heat.

Next, all the money in the place pool will be divided up among all the winning ticket holders on either the winner or the place horse, minus the track take, since it is possible to have a winning "place" ticket on either horse. NOTE: Pay attention to an entry that runs 1,2. You will notice that the place price will generally exceed the win price. The reason for this? Where the place pool would normally be divided into two winning betting interests, an entry is just one betting interest, so all the money in the place pool is going to one entity.

Lastly, the show pool is divided up among three betting interests. The winner, the place horse and the show horse.

Just as an example, suppose there is $99,000 on one horse in the show pool and $1,000 on the remaining horses. I don't care if the remaining horses are 1,000 to 1, if they run in the money and the favorite also runs in the money, all $100,000 is going to get paid back to the winning ticket holders (minus the track take out), most of it being paid to the winning show tickets on the favorite. There will be very little money left over to be paid to the winning show tickets on the other two in the money finishers. Since most tracks, by law, have to return a nickle on a dollar, the show price on the favorite would be $2.10 and the other two in the money finishers would come back at $2.20, regardless of their win odds or the overlay they appeared to be in the show pool prior to the race.

Now if that horse with the $99,000 bet to show runs out of the money, the result is what you saw at MNR the other night.Like I said, it is the ONLY WAY it can happen.

So to answer your question, no, had the favorite in this race run in the money, the show prices on your two horses would have been diminished to the point where you would have barely made a profit.

You were VERY fortunate the other night.

Just one more note. If you have been paying attention to the win, place and shows pools, then you will have a better idea about this than I do since I NEVER watch those pools. There was a time when I did, but no longer.

I looked at the charts for the 8th, 9th and 10th races that night. The charts do not give a breakdown of the win, place and show pools, but rather, the total of all three.

In the 8th race the total w,p & s pools were $65,000.
In the 10th race the total w, p & s pools were $57,000.
In the 9th race (your race) the total w, p & s pools were $85,000.
You can check the rest of them if you like, but my guess would be that somebody bet $20,000 to $25,000 to show on the favorite in the 9th race.
So like I said, if you have been following the pools, then you will know how much more money was in THAT show pool than what would be considered "normal".

Hope this helps.
Good luck.

Thank you for your elaborate explanation. Yes, I understand that the show
pool would have been significantly diluted had the favorite ran in the money.
You are correct, I lucked out on this one.

I frequently monitor the show pools and wager when the ratio of
the total show pool to the show amount is around 10:1 for the horses
of my interest. Up to now this has been profitable for me...I am getting
3:2 +( $3.00 or better). I have to admit I have not been tracking the amount
of show money that was bet on the favorite. Only the total pool vs my horses.

Therefore in order for me to have gotton some overlay when the favorite runs
in the money....means that the show amount bet on the favorite was not
overweighted such as you cited in your example.
Thereby leaving enough of the remaining show money to return some profit.

Thanks Again For Your Post,

Ernie